Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 250436 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP MODEL RUNS AND ALSO 11-3.9 IR CLOUD CURVE SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH. ALSO ADDED PATCHY 2-5SM FOG OVERNIGHT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY DRIZZLE. THERE`S ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 SPORADIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING EAST...AND MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT...ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE THAN EARLIER RAINS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FOR NOW. BEHIND THIS WAVE...THERE IS CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE WILL SEE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND WAVE WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY. SEE NO REASON THIS TREND SHOULD NOT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER BY LATE THIS EVENING...ANOTHER PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AND INDUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD DRAW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SO IF WE SEE SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT- LIVED. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. DECENT OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ELONGATES NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AGAIN IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AS WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MELTS ANY SNOW. HOWEVER A MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN FRINGE...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. HAVE LOWS IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL. A FAST- MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY SKIRT PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THEN YET ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH EACH OF THESE PRECIP EVENTS SHOW LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO BE WARM...BUT DEPTH OF WARM LAYER IS IN QUESTION. THUS SOME MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S OR 40S AT THE TIME...ACCUMULATION CHANCES ARE SLIM. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 AFTER LINGERING RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES END FRIDAY EVENING...A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND IS SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING RAIN AS CLOSE AS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SOUTHWARD EXTENT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS DEEP EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS. WHILE WEAK RIPPLES IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED PRECIP AT SOME POINT...THE BULK OF SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...RISING FROM THE 50S SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEWALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.