Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250751 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 251 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION. LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT 08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS JUST WEST OF KLNK...SHOULD IMPACT THAT LOCATION 05-06Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH KOMA BY 06-07Z. WILL FORECAST A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS THAN COULD LAST UNTIL 10-12Z. STILL THINKING THAT KOFK MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. SHOULD SEE NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...18-23Z AT KOFK...AND 20-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...DEWALD

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