Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191824 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Record or near record temperatures are again forecast for today. The cirrus have been variable enough with the gusty south winds to push temperatures up into the lower and mid 60s. Despite the higher dewpoints and a few more clouds, we are running about five degrees ahead of yesterday. The latest surface plot and visibile satellite imagery show low clouds just south of the border toward Manhattan, KS. Although they will try to push into southern Nebraska this evening, these should not hinder afternoon conditions too much. && .SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday) Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Early morning objective surface analysis indicated the ridge axis now extended over the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley with a lee trough developing from eastern CO into WY. This trend is expected to continue today with southerly winds increasing. IR satellite imagery this morning indicates some high cloudiness over the high Plains associated with the potent shortwave trough over the desert southwest. Some of these high clouds will spill across the CWA today, but do little to stop the warming. We have increased highs for today given that temperatures at 925 mb warm a couple of degrees over Saturday potentially leading to record or near record highs with upper 60s to lower 70s common. Forcing for ascent is expected to increase this evening ahead of the desert southwest shortwave trough. The atmosphere initially is pretty stable and dry this evening, but continued ascent and moistening from the south should eventually support some scattered showers after midnight into Monday morning. Main change was to delay the onset of the chances, and to generally lower them as well as it appears that precipitation will be fairly spotty. We did leave in the mention of isolated thunder in the south tonight. A very warm start to the day is expected on Monday, and with decreasing clouds in the afternoon we should see another very mild day ahead of a surface trough that will cross the CWA, potentially again supporting record highs. Tuesday still is shaping up to be the warmest day of the period. With the trough passage on Monday we will see the 925-850 mb flow become westerly and temperatures warm. With full sunshine and mixing we should see highs climb well into the 70s, and we would not be surprised to see an 80 degree reading at a spot or two. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 With a shortwave trough zipping through the Dakotas on Tuesday we will see a weak cold front settle through the CWA on Tuesday night, but again little in the way of cooling is expected behind the front with highs on Wednesday again reaching potential records at KOMA/KLNK. Wednesday appears to be the end of the current warm streak though as heights slowly fall into Thursday ahead of a potent system for the end of the week. Models continue to have significant differences as to the evolution of this system. The GFS remains consistent in a more progressive suppressed southward system, while the GEM/EC continue to indicate a stronger system aloft and at the surface that is a bit slower and farther north. Confidence in the eventual evolution is very low currently as many of the GFS ensembles support the operational GFS. In addition given the additional height falls moving into the west late in the week a less amplified solution certainly is possible. Nevertheless sensible weather wise, it appears that we will see a return to cooler weather with the potential for some precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 The patchy fog around KLNK quickly lifted this morning and surface winds have increased to 14 to 20kts and gusty. VFR ceilings will give way to deteriorating conditions with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsybs this evening as the low level jet strengthens to 40 to 45kts with moisture advection northward across the tafs sites. The low clouds and fog should spread north from KLNK/KOMA around 02Z-04Z to KOFK around 05Z. Did include drizzle or a chance for a shower at all three sites after 09z. With the elevated instability there may be some isolated thunder at koma toward 12Z. This can be added if needed. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Zapotocny SHORT TERM...Boustead LONG TERM...Boustead AVIATION...Zapotocny

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