Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 120438 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1138 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 A mid-level low and attending shortwave trough from British Columbia into the western U.S. will eject northeast into central Canada and the northern Plains over the next 24-36 hours as an upstream jet streak digs into the Pacific Northwest. A cold front associated with the lead upper-air system will traverse the northern Intermountain Region and adjacent High Plains before moving through the mid-MO Valley Thursday night into Friday. Ahead of the front, south-southeast winds will usher a warmer air mass into the region with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Friday into Friday night, strengthening warm advection to the north of the surface front stalled across KS and MO will yield a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across the southern part of the forecast area. Increasing clouds and the presence of a cooler low-level air mass north of the front will keep daytime highs mainly in the 60s. Readings could rise into the lower to mid 70s nearer to the front in far southeast NE and southwest IA. On Saturday, 12z model guidance is in reasonable agreement in suggesting that a positively tilted mid-level trough will move through the Rockies and into the High Plains. This system will induce a frontal wave which is forecast to develop from KS into central or eastern IA by Saturday evening. This pattern evolution would render portions of southeast NE and southwest IA in the warm sector of the cyclone where a risk for a few strong to severe storms will exist. A broader envelope of heavy rainfall potential could extend north toward I-80. Afternoon temperatures will vary considerably across the forecast area, ranging from the mid 50s near the SD border to mid 70s south of the front in the Falls City area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Precipitation chances should diminish from northwest to southeast across the area Saturday night into Sunday with the progression of the aforementioned synoptic system to the east. Thereafter, west- northwest mid-level flow will encourage downslope warming in the low levels with highs near or slightly above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 VFR conditions are forecast through TAF Thursday night. However, there is a small chance MVFR or IFR vsbys in fog could form near KOMA around 12Z, but expect bulk of the lower vsbys to remain to the east of TAF site. Otherwise light southeast winds will turn southerly and increase to 15kt with gusts approaching 25kt 16Z to 23Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Dergan

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