Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232334 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 534 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 LARGE SCALE FLOW PER SATL IMAGERY REVEALING AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OFF THE WRN U.S. COASTLINE ALONG WITH A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER THE CA/NV BORDER. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLOW PRETTY MUCH PREVAILING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM PDS CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TUES NIGHT THRU THURS EVENING. APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECM/CMC SNOW TRACK FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL IA ALONG AXIS OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING/OPTIMUM 850MB TEMPS/295K UPGLIDE/LOW CON PRES DEF. EXPECT SN ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO THE NRN TWD 06Z TUES THEN THE REST OF THE CWA ON WED WITH THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM ABOUT CEDAR CO TO PAGE CO...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES BY EVENTS END WED EVENING. A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER TIER COUNTIES IN SERN NEB MAY PROVIDE A RA/SN MIX DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT GOOD MIXING ON TUES WILL ALLOW HIGH TO PUSH INTO THE U30S/LOW40S BEFORE THE DOWNWARD PLUNGE TAKES PLACE WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENVELOPS THE CNTRL PLAINS CULMINATING IN THURS HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MIN TEENS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 LATEST ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT ADVERTISING SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING SAT THRU SUN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE TWO SHOWING IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT VIA COMBINATION OF DPVA/INTENSE PROLONGED 295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS VERIFY...SEEMS PROBABLE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY WELL BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE FEED VIA BACKSIDE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC SITUATED OVER THE OH VLY AT THAT TIME. TOO EARLY THOUGH TO PIN DOWN AMOUNTS BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS EVENT. OTHERWISE...WITH LARGE SCALE TROF REMAINING PLACE OVER THE CONUS... AND NO MEANINGFUL TEMP REBOUND IN SIGHT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 531 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL START THE TAF PERIOD. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AT ABOUT 40KT NEAR FL015. MVFR CIGS AREA A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN

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