Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242325 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 625 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few lightning strikes have been noted. Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary. Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule anything out and so will continue monitor any convective developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon. The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very heavy rain in the stronger convection. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the primary focus for thunderstorm development. Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll northeast through the region. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Recent trends in visible satellite imagery indicate an agitated cumulus field from west of KLNK and KBIE to near KAUH. Latest surface observations indicate generally light winds with the best low-level convergence nearer to the Platte river. The upshot is that we are uncertain whether storms will arise from this convection. The better potential appears to be after 03 or 04z owing to increased moisture flux and isentropic ascent along the strengthening low-level jet. As such, TEMPO groups for thunderstorms have been included beginning at 04z for KLNK, 05z at KOFK and 06z at KOMA. Thunderstorm activity will likely linger in the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight. We have maintained prevailing VFR conditions with MVFR ceilings and visibilities around the thunderstorms.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.