Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 130824 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 224 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 A weak vorticity lobe and associated area of showery precipitation (most of which is sublimating before reaching the ground) was moving through the mid-MO Valley early this morning, downstream from a prominent upper low situated over the Sierra-Nevada Range. Decreasing clouds and veering low-level winds with the passage of the short-wave trough to the east should allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 30s across much of the area with some lower 40s possible near the KS border. West-southwest deep-layer flow will become established over the central Plains on Wednesday, with downslope-enhanced warming boosting temperatures into the mid 40s to lower 50s, despite lingering snow cover. These warmer temperatures combined with an increase in boundary-layer dewpoints could yield the development of patchy fog Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We will not include a mention in the forecast at this point, but it`s something worth monitoring. On Thursday, a polar-branch short-wave trough will traverse the Canadian Prairie Provinces and north-central States, promoting the advance of a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will increase markedly from the northwest with the passage of the front with some flurries possible on Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 The intrusion of cold continental air behind Thursday`s frontal passage will largely be confined to Friday where highs will remain in the 20s. By this weekend, it appears that a warmer air mass will overspread the mid-MO Valley ahead of a surface low and associated cold front which will approach the area from the west. Currently, we will indicate highs in the 40s on both days. By early next week, medium-range model guidance begins to diverge on the handling of the mid-level pattern. Both the ECMWF and GEFS mean suggest substantial troughing over the southwestern U.S., while the GFS and Canadian models indicate a broader, but lower amplitude trough from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Lakes. Despite these differences aloft, there is model consensus that a colder air mass will become established over the region with some light snow potential.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 VFR conditions through the period. LLWS at all three TAF sites, with winds around 2000` from 180-190 around 38-40 knots, through about 15-16z. Could also be a few snow flurries in the KLNK vicinity through about 07z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.