Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 070850 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 350 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CENTER AROUND TSTM CHANCES/SEVERE WX/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT. A LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FLARED UP OVERNIGHT AROUND GRAND ISLAND AND YORK AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS CONTAINED PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW. THIS FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TODAY WHILE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN EDGE...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF NEBRASKA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CAPPED. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 45-55KTS BY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES POSSIBLE INITIALLY. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY SETS UP AS BACKED SFC WINDS WILL FAVOR RISK FOR TORNADIC STORMS WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH GREATLY INCREASES. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTH AROUND 00Z/TUE GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THREAT TURNING MORE TO HAIL/WIND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH PW`S INCREASING TO 2.50" OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA...WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY AND SOUTH. THIS AREA RECEIVED UP TO 5" OF RAINFALL 2 NIGHTS AGO AND IS STILL QUITE SATURATED. MUCH OF THE AREA ALSO HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SLIGHT RISK TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE FRONT AND RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AFTER 06Z. WILL LINGER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z FOR LINGERING FLOODING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUE AND WED BRINGING MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014 RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND GIVING THE REGION A GOOD CHANCE AT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. DRY AIR MOVING IN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG MONDAY MORNING...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER WITH THE SLOW MOVING/STALLED FRONT...BUT DID NOT THINK IT WOULD AFFECT LINCOLN. MID CLOUDS FL150 ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DO MENTION TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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