Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 192038 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 338 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Central Plains with strong zonal flow over the Northern plains. An MCS continues to move southeast across southwest Minnesota this afternoon. Otherwise, a slow moving front extends east across eastern South Dakota from low pressure centered over southwestern South Dakota. The ongoing MCS has complicated the surface pattern slightly, but as the low continues to slowly sink south, convection continues to bubble over south central SD. Some isloated severe thunderstorms look possible given moderate instability and 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Should this activity continue east/southeast as CAMs suggest, a couple of our northern counties could see isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours with hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Otherwise hot and humid conditions continue with surface dewpoints well into the 70s and temperatures topping out in the 90s. Models have been under-forecasting late afternoon/early evening dewpoints as of late and so have adjusted forecast for next few days accordingly. Heat advisory/excessive heat headlines will continue as is through Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 By Saturday the ridge will flatten out and cool temps down slightly. Model blends do give us a few hit and miss chances for low pops with best chance most likely late Sat night into Sun across southeastern Nebraska. Otherwise upper ridge looks like it will build back into the area next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the bulk of the TAF period at all three TAF sites. There is a brief period KOFK may experience convection per CAM and parameterized models, centered around 06 UTC. Frontal boundary moves into northeast Nebraska this evening, and essentially stalls. Evening and early overnight convection will be sustained by several weak disturbances and ULJ moving through northern plains. Confidence on timing or location isn`t great, and likely will need to be adjusted. The only other aviation concern is with LLWS. LLJ of 35- 45kt establishes by 03 UTC, while simultaneously surface winds slacken as frontal zone moves into northeast Nebraska. As upper level jet moves east, atmospheric kinematic field will slacken, so LLWS threat expected to diminish by 09-12UTC. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ034-044-045- 050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>033-042-043. IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for IAZ055-069-079- 080-090-091. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for IAZ043-056. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Fortin

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