Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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725 FXUS63 KOAX 231702 AAA AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1202 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Scattered showers have developed as expected and should be with us off and on much of the afternoon. Forecast for the rest of the day did not need much updating but did tweak temperatures, clouds and winds earlier.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations...one over the upper Midwest and the other over Quebec. Meanwhile...an upstream ridge oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada. For today...the upper level Midwest low/vort max will migrate southward and push into the mid MS valley later this afternoon. And with several minor impulses riding down the backside of the system...this may be enough to pop off some showers over the CWA this afternoon. RAP13 not showing any instability to speak of...and expect any activity to be isolated in nature. Dry conditions with a noticeable warming trend is on tap as the western CONUS ridge builds into the central Plains Wednesday through Friday. The chance for elevated convection will increase late Friday night when a cold front...associated with shortwave energy traversing the U.S./Canadian border...sweeps into the region. Both the NAM/GFS hint moisture advection leading up to the fropa will be generous with PWS values of 1.5" or so reaching into the southern CWA. Given this...a few locations south of the I-80 corridor may see generous accumulations leading up to sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 With the medium range models in agreement showing no significant thermal advection occurring throughout the extended periods...the going temp forecast with mid 70s/low 50s looks reasonable for now. Precip chances continue Thursday night through Saturday afternoon as in response to series of embedded impulses running down the backside of deepening upper low dropping out of south-central Canada into the lower 48. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Ceilings should be variable this afternoon with at least TEMPO MVFR conditions possible. There is some uncertainty on cloud heights tonight, but MVFR conditions could occur at least into the overnight hours. RAP and GFS model low level RH forecasts seemed to be reasonable.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Miller

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