Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 262000 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AFTER EVENING CONVECTION EXITS THE FORECAST AREA MAIN WEATHER FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AS PATTERN TURNS COOLER. UPPER LOW OVER SRN CANADA WAS BEGINNING TO DROP SE OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH STRONG UPPER JET SEGMENT AIDING IN ALLOWING SMALL MCS TO DROP INTO NRN ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COMPLEX WAS ATTEMPTING TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...TWO INDIVIDUAL CELLS STILL WERE MAINTAINING SOME STRUCTURE/CORES ALOFT AS OF 1930Z...BUT SHOWED SOME LAST MINUTE SHRINKAGE AS OF 20Z. QUESTION BECOMES COVERAGE AT AND AFT 00Z. ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LOW END CHC POPS SERN ZONES...VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS QPF...RAP/HRRR...HAD LITTLE OR NONE BY 01Z AND THEN OVER FAR SERN COUNTIES. THUS...WOULD EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO BE OVER WITH ACROSS OUR FA BY 03Z OR SOONER. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY MOIST AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP SOME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SERN ZONES...DID LOWER THEM A BIT W/NW AS SOME UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DWPTS TRY TO SPREAD SE. AFTER TONIGHT DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE FA WILL BRING COMFORTABLE NIGHTS THROUGH SHORT TERM AND PROBABLY THROUGH EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY WITH H85 TEMPS COOLING A LITTLE MONDAY PROVIDING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS WITH TUESDAY SIMILAR. LEFT SHORT TERM DRY AFTER THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A LITTLE IN NW UPPER FLOW AND GFS/ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT QPF OVER ERN ZONES MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEPT A SMALL CAP AROUND 800-700 MB AND NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN THE EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FOR TIMING AND EVEN LOCATION. ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WRN ZONES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE AT RISK SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND ERN SIDE UP UPPER RIDGE. ATTEMPTED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY IN MENTIONING MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...KEPT THE NEW DAYS 6 AND 7...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY FOR NOW. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...AGAIN MOSTLY 80-85 FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NERN NEBRASKA OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AS IT TRACKS SE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE NORFOLK AREA...BUT WILL BE WORKING INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SE OF THERE...AND COULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OMAHA. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IT AT OMAHA...AND OF COURSE ALSO OFK...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF LINCOLN FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT COULD REFOCUS MORE ENE OF THAT SITE. OTHERWISE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL PRECEDE CONVECTION AND SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NNW ON SUNDAY...BUT A SEPARATE GROUP WAS NOT INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND DUE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE SHORTER TERM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...CHERMOK

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