Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301740 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SD WAS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEB IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN UT WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US...WITH THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 110KT WAS NOSING OUT OF SASK/MB INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT 850MB...8C+ DEWPOINTS WERE FAIRLY ABUNDANT ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH NOTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OF 30-35C ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN MT/SOUTHERN ID. SURFACE HIGH AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN OK...WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH KS/NEB. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE TENDED TO INDICATE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SD DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING NORTHEAST NEB...THE LINE HAS CONTINUED TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PRECIP MENTION IN THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHORTWAVE DESCENDING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS IT WORKS ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. HAVE SPED ITS EXIT SOMEWHAT...AS SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW...GENERATING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM NEAR NORTHEAST NEB/NORTHWEST IA. HAVE ADDED AN AFTERNOON PRECIP MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB/IA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY AS LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH COOL EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES APPEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS AFTERNOON WILL EFFECT ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME -RA IS LIKELY AT KOMA EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RA AND POSSIBLE TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TSRA ARE MOST LIKELY AT KOMA/KLNK BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDES A THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE RA AT ALL 3 SITES. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME HZ FROM THE FIRES AFFECT THE TAFS AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VISBY POSSIBLE. ONCE RA MOVES THROUGH WE WILL SEE A BKN MID LEVEL DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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