Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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613 FXUS63 KOAX 272309 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 609 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Very isolated chance of a thunderstorm over northeast Nebraska this evening is main concern then focus turns to more widespread showers/thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. West/southwest mid/upper level flow extends across the forecast area with a closed upper low now just west of the Four Corners region with a large high over the Atlantic coastline. Otherwise, a sharp shortwave trough axis continues to move across the eastern Dakotas this afternoon while a couple of subtle shortwaves eject northeast out of a very subtle wave over eastern Colorado. Not alot going on at the surface this afternoon with a very subtle boundary at 18z stretching from southwest Kansas to extreme southeast Nebraska and northeast into east central Iowa. Low clouds/drizzle/fog mixed out by mid/late morning but temperatures have been able to recover into the 80s across much of the area. As mentioned above, we have inserted a very small chance for an isolated thunderstorm over our very far northern counties along the South Dakota border. Confidence in this occuring is low but feel a small chance is warranted in the event that the the meager amount of CIN is unable to hold. Upper level support will move overhead from a weak impulse coming out of southwesterly flow just after peak heating when MUCAPE is forecast around 1500 J/kg. In addition, increasing 0-6km shear will be in place over southeast South Dakota with 0-3km SRH around 250. The latest versions of both the Experimental and Operational HRRR generate isolated activity along the South Dakota border. A majority of the CWA will remain dry through the night with some potential for patchy fog development. Otherwise focus then turns to our southern CWA Sunday morning as showers/thunderstorms spread northeast out of north Central Kansas and into southeastern Nebraska. Model QPF has backed off slightly but will continue the trend of spreading pops north through the day and overnight into Monday as isentropic upglide increases in warm air advection regime. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Overall confidence in the long term forecast is fairly low, especially regarding precipitation chances. Medium range guidance continues maintain fairly good agreement regarding timing and location of large scale features. At the beginning of the period, a large upper level trough off will extend across the Pacific coast with upper ridging moving into the High Plains. In the lower levels, predominately southerly flow is anticipated as large area of surface high pressure slowly builds east/southeast from central Canada into the Central Plains and eventually east across the Mississippi River Valley. That being said, it`s tough to rule out any small chance of pcpn in this pattern as weak shortwaves are forecast to pass overhead and a weak surface boundary meanders through the region. As a result and with discussion from surrounding forecast offices, will not adjust precipitation chances much from previous forecasts. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 610 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Expect VFR conditions through the period...other than possibly some fog around sunrise. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Miller

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