Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150825 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016 The main forecast concerns today are in regards to low clouds, drizzle and the affect on temperatures. Will also need to look at potential for low clouds and fog tonight into Sunday. The following features were noted on the 00Z upper air charts from last evening. At 300 mb...winds in excess of 100 knots extended from Oregon up into Saskatchewan. At 500 mb...modest southwest flow was in place from the eastern Pacific through the Northern Plains. 12 hour height falls were strongest (around 100 meters) near the Alberta/Saskatchewan border, but also extended down into the Central Rockies. Thermal ridge at 700 mb and 850 mb stretched from Sonora Mexico up into western Nebraska and the Dakotas. The highest moisture at 850 mb extended from the Gulf Coast up into Missouri. Surface analysis at 08Z showed modest southerly flow in place across our local area, ahead of a cold front that will push in from the northwest later today. That front is expected to be from northwest Iowa into south central Nebraska by late afternoon. Low clouds will be tough to mix out ahead of this front much of the day. Lowered highs from previous forecast a little, mainly in the southeast half to two thirds of the area. Kept mention of drizzle into early afternoon, then there may be a few showers in parts of southwest Iowa late afternoon and early evening. There may even be a few areas that received measurable precipitation with the drizzle/light rain today. Clouds may break up a bit early tonight, then with light winds there will probably be low clouds and/or fog. This is suggested by both the NAM and experimental HRRR. Thinking for Sunday is that increasing southerly flow will provide enough mixing to allow highs to reach the lower 80s in parts of southeast Nebraska, with mid and upper 70s farther north. Monday looks warm and much of the MOS guidance suggests a very warm day. For now, will remain fairly optimistic with highs in the lower/mid 80s south, and upper 70s/ lower 80s north. Will not mention any precipitation for Monday, but may need to in later forecasts. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Showers appear possible Monday night, but just north of our area. A push of cooler air will move across the area Monday night, and then a cooling trend should continue through the later part of the week. Have included some low POPs at times for parts of the area from Wednesday through Friday, although confidence is fairly low. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in decent agreement through mid week, then diverge somewhat on the details of the 500 mb trough over the central part of the United States late in the week. The 00z GFS solution of a closed low seems a bit odd, so gave that model less weight than the GFS Ensemble and ECMWF for rain chances in our area.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 VFR conditions initially, but MVFR clouds back at KOMA by 07z, KLNK by 08z, and KOFK by 11z. Could also be patchy drizzle or light mist with the lower clouds, but not confident that there will any visibility restriction. MVFR clouds scatter back to VFR at KOFK by 15z, 19z at KLNK and 20z at KOMA. Southerly winds around 12 knots initially, with non convective low level wind shear, winds around 2000 feet around 45 knots. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.