Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 100516 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1116 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL PERSIST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 14Z...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KOMA WITH LIGHT SNOW OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY...NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DERGAN

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