Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 241124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS NEAR THE UT/WY/CO BORDER AREA AT 00Z WITH
12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 80 METERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE WAS A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KTS AT
300 MB NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER. AT 700 MB...THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHED FROM SWRN NM UP INTO SERN MT. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB
EXTENDED FROM TX INTO THE DKTS. WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWED THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW HAD PROGRESSED INTO
CENTRAL WY. SFC ANLYS AT 08Z HAD A LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN SD.
A WMFNT EXTENDED E/NE FROM THE LOW INTO MN AND A CDFNT EXTENDED
S/SW INTO NERN NM. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WERE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

TODAY...CURRENT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT IT APPEARS THESE WILL STAY BELOW SVR
LIMITS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS DEPICT VIGOROUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA THIS AFTN. SFC-500 METER MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES COULD REACH AROUND 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTN IN OUR
WRN ZONES...BASED ON DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD FORM THERE AND THEN DVLP EWD. ZERO TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SUPERCELLS...
WITH HAIL THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND MANY OTHER
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SIMILAR RESULTS. LOOK FOR HIGHS 75
TO 80.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DVLP EWD AND MAINLY BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 06Z TNGT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE SD BORDER. SFC LOW SHOULD BE
JUST NW OF KSUX BY 12Z MON...THEN THAT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
WI/IA/MN BORDER AREA BY 00Z TUE. NW SFC WINDS SHOULD PULL COOLER
AIR INTO NERN NE FOR MON...BUT COOLING WILL BE LESS FOR SERN NE
AND SWRN IA. THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PCPN IN OUR NRN COUNTIES MON
BUT FOR NOW KEPT MON INTO MON NGT DRY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE ON TUE...AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES OVER ERN CO AND
WRN KS. LOCATION OF A NWD LIFTING WMFNT WILL BE CRITICAL...BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN SERN NE FOR SOME
STG TO SVR STORMS TUE AFTN AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

OVERALL THIS PERIOD LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE. DIFLUENT FLOW SHOULD BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW IN SRN WY. WED COULD ALSO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS
BUT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PCPN SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT
CLEAR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL DRY OUT THU INTO THU NGT...BUT
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FRI AND PROBABLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
KOMA AND KLNK THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
14-15Z UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO BLOSSOM AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION MID AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



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