Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230948 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 348 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 ONGOING PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A LARGE PCPN BAND PIVOTING AROUND THE TOP AND BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN DEFORMATION ZONE. PCPN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE DAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A RA/SN MIX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INITIALLY. AREA WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOW SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADS AND GRASSY AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DUE TO WET NATURE OF SNOW...ONLY EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS GIVES US HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR CONTINUITY BUT FEEL THESE MAY ELIMINATED IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH. IN ANY CASE...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE OVER FOR THE TIME BEING AS COLD CANADIAN AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 SN WILL CONT TO WORK INTO THE KOFK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 09Z WITH SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY TUE AFTN. WILL SEE SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SN. THE MAIN AREA OF RA HAS MOVED OUT OF KOMA...BUT WEAK LIFT CONTS AND SO WE COULD SEE DZ FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT THERE. CONDS OVERNIGHT SHLD BE DRY AT KLNK. IFR CONDS SHOULD MOV INTO KOMA SHRTLY AND KLNK LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF -SN MOV ACRS THE KOMA/KLNK TAF SITES LATE TUE MRNG THRU MID AFTN BEFORE ENDING. EVEN AFTER SN ENDS AT ALL TAF SITES IFR CIGS SHOULD CONT THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON TUE WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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