Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232006 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 TONIGHT REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEE

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