Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 141136 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 536 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts multi-stream troughs off the Pacific NW and CA coasts with a downstream belt of confluent mid-level flow from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, west-southwest winds will develop today in response to the progression of a weak surface cyclone from Saskatchewan into northern MN. These winds will encourage downslope-enhanced warming with temperatures rising into the 45-50 degree range in snow-covered areas with lower to mid 50s near the KS border. Resultant snow melt will likely translate to patchy fog development from late this evening into Thursday morning. Thursday into Thursday night, separate short-wave troughs are forecast to phase over the north-central U.S. with an attendant cold front surging through the mid-MO Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures should warm into the 40s with falling afternoon readings behind it over northeast NE. Model guidance remains consistent in suggesting that the best precipitation chances with this system will remain to the north of our area, though we will indicate slight-chance PoPs near the SD border. A few flurries are possible areawide Thursday night as a continental-polar air mass overspreads the region. Post-frontal winds will be brisk from the northwest through daybreak Friday. We will remain under the influence of cold, Canadian high pressure on Friday with highs in the 20s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 It appears that we will see a notable warming trend through the weekend as south to southwest low-level winds strengthen ahead of a developing cold front over the northern High Plains. Highs on Saturday will range from mid 30s north to mid 40s south. On Sunday, readings should top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Early next week, model guidance is suggestive that a large-scale trough will evolve over the western U.S. with an associated cold front moving through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Indications are that a colder air mass will linger over the mid- MO Valley into the middle of next week with highs in the 20s and 30s. The best chance for some light precipitation will be Sunday night into Monday night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 LLWS/crosswind threat will increase this morning at KOFK and continue on thru most of the day. LLWS/crosswind threat at KOMA will be more prevalent late morning through the afternoon. At this point, latest models indicate deteriorating conditions will be possible after midnight tonight going from VFR to IFR at all terminals. Will opt though not to include with this issuance at this time given occurrence will be in latter portion of fcst.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...DEE

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