Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 252328 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 628 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 PCPN CHANCES AND THE TIMING OF TSTMS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS AT 12Z INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A 95 KNOT JET MAX WAS PUNCHING TO E/NE ACROSS SWRN CANADA. 500 MB PATTERN SHOWED A HIGH CENTERED OVER CO AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THAT HIGH UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. AT 700 MB...A THERMAL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A SURGE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW MOVING NWD FROM NM...AZ AND SRN CA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AND EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W/NW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME PLAN ON NOT MENTIONING ANY PCPN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AXIS STAYS TO OUR WEST THROUGH 00Z THU. INCREASED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS A BIT FOR ALL AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY STAYS TO OUR WEST. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN THURSDAY...AS WE MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY...THEN AGAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO JUST HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL BE. IF NAM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. I SUSPECT THAT THE NAM IS SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS THAT IS THE REASON FOR IT SHOWING HIGHER CAPE THAN THE GFS. WILL WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS AND SEE WHAT THINGS LOOK LIKE TOMORROW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES FROM 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS. DYNAMICS LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 PATTERN AT 500 MB IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL THEN START TO SLIDE SEWD AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FROM A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. DID NOT LINGER ANY PCPN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...THIS MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY 60S. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE

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