738
FXUS63 KOAX 060459
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather favored for most on Sunday with highs in the mid
  to upper 80s.

- Daily storm chances (20-30%) return Sunday night and last through
  the work week. While the severe threat remains low, repeated
  rounds of rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Day Cloud Phase imagery this afternoon shows a few small clusters of
showers, storms, or general cloud deepening across a few areas of
eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, with winds shifting from the
west to north-northwesterly in direction. A recent surface analysis
depicts a frontal zone rather than a sharp cold front extending from
north-central Iowa towards northwest Kansas, pooling better
dewpoints at the surface across its southeastern periphery in Iowa.
This has resulted in surface-based CAPE values of upwards of 2500-
3000 J/kg further corroborated by the 18z KOAX sounding. The
afternoon sounding depicts steep low-level lapse rates, that join
the broad wind shift locally to bring the return of small funnel
chances to the area, that could briefly form with a sufficiently
strong storm. Chances for an actual tornado remain squarely in the
little-to-none category owing mainly to the lack of sheared
flow and stream wise vorticity that is a result of a crumpled
hodograph. Looking at severe chances otherwise, we have a 10-15%
chance to see one of the areas of convection blossom briefly
into a severe storm by taking full advantage of the available
CAPE and then quickly collapsing, throwing out a gust up to 60
mph and a few 1" hail stones as it dies. Surface moisture
decreases as you go to the northwest, meaning the best chances
for any storm to warrant a warning exist southeast of a line
from Schuyler to Onawa. Expect the current bands of deeper
clouds and storms to continue moving slowly to the southeast,
with the Omaha/Lincoln Metro areas seeing their best storm
chances arrive closer to 5 PM lasting through 7 PM. While the
latest runs of CAMs aren`t handling the ongoing convection well,
they do indicate that areas of storms will begin shrinking as
we lose our better daytime heating around 7 PM before fully
diminishing/moving to the southeast by 10 PM.

Tomorrow is expected to remain dry as northerly winds, high
pressure, and less muggy dewpoints settle into the area. Shower and
storm chances won`t be too far, with model consensus showing some
convection along the central South Dakota/Nebraska border and
points west for the afternoon hours that should dissipate as
they approach. Highs are expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s,
and an afternoon MCS that starts across western Nebraska will
plow southeast through much of southwest into south-central
Nebraska along a theta-e gradient that will steer it south and
west of the Fairbury area in our extreme southwestern portion of
the forecast area into the overnight hours.

Monday and Beyond:

Monday heading towards the weekend continues to feature an active
pattern in the global deterministic models, marked by a building
ridge that we`ll be on the extreme northwestern portions of. This
will queue up another week of weakly-forced convective setups that
will be tough to pin down until 24-48 hours until they start. Both
GEFS and ECMWF ML guidance indicates that we`ll have some chance at
severe storms during this period, tough  intensity will likely be on
the low end, and favor flooding moreso if we can get repeated rounds
of rain. Highs during the upcoming are expected to max out in the
upper 80s to low 90s, keeping the summer vibes in full swing before
signals point to a slight cool down into the 70s/low 80s late this
upcoming weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Expect some passing clouds around 3000-6000 ft overnight into
Sunday with light northerly to northeasterly winds. Some
guidance suggests fog development, especially near and east of
the Missouri River (20-30% chance). Currently think stronger
winds aloft will keep it patchy, so not confident enough to
include mention at OMA at this time, but will need to monitor
trends overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA