Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 130845 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A potent short-wave trough over the northern High Plains early this morning will track southeast through the mid-MO Valley today in tandem with a surface cold front. Similar to past systems, this disturbance will be interacting with a relatively dry air mass with measurable precipitation chances seemingly quite low. A few sprinkles will be possible this morning into early afternoon, namely over portions of northeast NE into southwest IA. Winds will become quite strong from the northwest by mid morning with the gradient slowly relaxing by late afternoon into this evening. Sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph appear likely and we have extended the wind advisory to include the Omaha metro area as well as all of our southwest IA counties. High temperatures should top out in mid 40s north to mid 50s south by early afternoon with readings slowly falling thereafter. It appears that we will see a few-hour window of high to very high fire danger develop early this afternoon from the Columbus area south through Lincoln and Beatrice and points west. Tonight into Thursday, yet another short-wave trough will translate from the northern High Plains into the region. Clouds should thin some tonight before thickening again on Thursday in response to strengthening forcing for ascent. The extent of cooling overnight will have implications on high temperatures on Thursday, which in turn, will dictate snowfall accumulation potential. Highest precipitation chances will be over the western half of the forecast area, in closer proximity to the approaching mid-level wave. We will continue to indicate snowfall amounts of generally less than a half inch from the Platte River into northeast NE. However, should temperatures on Thursday end up colder than the mid to upper 30s we are currently forecasting, the potential will exist for some local accumulations of an inch or so. Thursday night into Friday, any light precipitation will shift to the southeast of the area Thursday evening with strengthening westerly low-level winds allowing temperatures to rebound back into the 40s on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Latest medium-range guidance remains relatively consistent in depicting a short-wave trough tracking through the northern Intermountain Region Saturday with one piece of the system shearing east across the northern Plains on Sunday, while the other part develops south into the Four Corners. An associated cold front will advance through the area on Saturday with some potential for light precipitation later Saturday into early Sunday. By the early to middle part of next week, it appears that we will at least temporarily transition back to a trough in the east and ridging in the west. Resultant northwest deep-layer flow across the Plains translates to continued above-normal temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 A cold front will move through eastern Nebraska early Wednesday with strong northwest winds developing by 12-15z and continuing into evening. LLWS will exist along and just ahead of the front at all TAF sites before diminishing with the onset of deeper mixing. Mid and high-level cloudiness will increase through the day with prevailing VFR conditions. Model guidance does indicate an increasing probability of MVFR stratus or strato-cumulus to the east of KOFK and KOMA. Model trends and observations will have to be monitored for the potential impact of these clouds at those two TAF sites. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034-043>045-051>053-067. IA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Mead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.