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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 010850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

WELCOME TO MARCH. STILL LOOKING AT A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGER
STORY PROBABLY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS...WHICH WILL BREAK MANY
RECORDS...AND FOR COLD MAXIMUM TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY...FOR
MINIMUM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN A MANY AREAS. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BREAK THE ALL TIME
COLDEST MAX VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH AT ALL PRIMARY
SITES AS WELL.

REGARDING THE SNOWFALL...LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT`S INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THERE ISN`T ANY REAL STRONG SHORT WAVE PRESENT AS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT WITH NILL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. IT`S JUST
BROAD LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT AREA OF THE JET STREAK
WHICH IS INDUCING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BEST FORCING THIS
MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THEN FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD I80 BY 18Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...
SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE...15 TO 18 TO
1...WHICH SHOULD YIELD A FLUFFIER SNOWFALL. A PIECE OF ENERGY NOW
MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP DEVELOP A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW THAT
WOULD THEN SET UP SOUTH OF I80...WHICH COULD STILL BE TAPPING INTO
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAK...COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN JET. IN FACT..THE
BULK OF THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SOUTH OF I80 WOULD OCCUR 6PM
TONIGHT TO 9AM SUNDAY.

THUS...THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS COUPLE OF PREVIOUS CYCLES THAT
THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP SPREAD THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FIST JET SEGMENT BRING SNOW MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND JET SEGMENT BRINGS IT TO THE SOUTH. SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECAST...AND SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I80
COULD PICK UP 4 TO 5 BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
TRIMMED POPS NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES
ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS FOR THE COMBINATION OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH STAGGERED START AND END TIMES NORTH TO SOUTH.

REGARDING THE COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILL VALUES...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEPS THINGS EXTREMELY COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH WOULD
BREAK COLD MAX RECORDS AT ALL PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES TODAY. SOURCE
REGION FOR TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO NEGATIVE
TERRITORY...AND LIKELY 10 TO 17 BELOW FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD BREAK RECORDS AT SOME SITES.
CALCULATED WIND CHILL VALUES ALSO DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW
TONIGHT...WITH COLDEST VALUES NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHERE WE`LL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WATCH. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL AREAS...WHICH WOULD BREAK COLD
MAXIMUM RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH. RECORD COLD MIN
VALUES ARE AGAIN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH ABSOLUTE VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW
ZERO...WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES. AND WHILE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER MONDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP
TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...THUS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES
FOR THAT DAY AS WELL. FOR SPECIFIC RECORD VALUES...PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION LATER IN THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

WHILE IT MAY FEEL LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL NEVER GO AWAY...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ACROSS NEB AND WILL EXPAND INTO
IA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS BRINGING TEMPS BACK ABOVE 0C.
WARMING WOULD BE HAMPERED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THOUGH...AS
WELL AS CLOUDINESS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH MN/IA AND
ANOTHER SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TO KS/OK. WITH CWA BETWEEN
THE TWO WAVES...HAVE KEPT IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
PLAINS WAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES KS
THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION ON WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. ALSO COOLED TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY...AS ECMWF/GFS/GEM WOULD
INDICATE COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS...CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND
CLOUDINESS IF NOT LIGHT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY WITH MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT
AND CLEANER SKIES. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY...THUS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE THE
NORTH MAY HAVE IMPEDED WARMING AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW. THE FAIRLY ROBUST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH PRECIP TYPE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT LISTED AS
SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL..BUT DIDN`T WANT TO COMPLICATE AND ALREADY MESSY HEADLINE
SITUATION AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO NERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS KLNK/KOMA SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPO GROUP WITH VSBYS BELOW 1SM WAS CARRIED AT EACH SITE DURING
THE WINDOW WHEN BEST FORCING WAS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE LOWEST
CONDITIONS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS DURING
MUCH OF THE EVENT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
COULD BE A BIT BETTER THAN 06Z FORECAST INDICATED...BUT ALSO
NEARLY EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE POOREST CONDITIONS COULD LAST
LONGER AS WELL.

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY (MARCH 1)
ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES:

SITE RECORD COLD MAX TEMP YEAR FORECAST MAX TEMP
OMAHA 12 1890 9
LINCOLN 16 2009, 1962, 1890 11
NORFOLK 11 2009 4

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW (MARCH
2) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES:..BUT DIDN`T WANT TO COMPLICATE AND ALREADY MESSY HEADLINE
SITUATION

SITE RECORD COLD MAX TEMP YEAR FORECAST MAX TEMP
OMAHA 13 1943 2
LINCOLN 14 1916 4
NORFOLK 10 1916 0

THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW (MARCH 2) MAY ALSO
PUT THE COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MARCH IN JEOPARDY. THOSE RECORDS ARE:

SITE RECORD COLD MAX TEMP DATE
OMAHA 5 3/10/1948, 3/18/1923
LINCOLN 6 3/10/1948, 3/18/1923
NORFOLK 2 3/10/1948

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW (MARCH
2) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES:

SITE RECORD COLD MIN TEMP YEAR FORECAST MIN TEMP
OMAHA -4 1913 -8
LINCOLN -7 1913 -5
NORFOLK -15 1913 -14

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONDAY (MARCH
3) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES:

SITE RECORD COLD MIN TEMP YEAR FORECAST MIN TEMP
OMAHA -5 2002 -12
LINCOLN -10 1978 -8
NORFOLK -10 1960 -17

THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY (MARCH 3) ARE NOT QUITE
DOWN TO THE RECORD COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH...BUT THEY ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THOSE
RECORDS ARE:

SITE RECORD COLD MIN TEMP DATE
OMAHA -16 3/11/1948
LINCOLN -19 3/4/1978, 3/11/1948
NORFOLK -20 3/4/1960-- End Changed Discussion --

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>067-078.

WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
NEZ068-088>093.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
012-015>018-030>033-042.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.

WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ043-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
IAZ090-091.-- End Changed Discussion --

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK
CLIMATE...MAYES

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