Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 062311 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 511 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 WE ARE STILL MAINLY CONCERNED WITH STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL JET SEGMENTS OF OVER 100 KNOTS WERE NOTED ON THE 12Z 300 MB CHART...BUT THE MAIN ONE OF CONCERN WAS PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS (ESTIMATED) AT UP TO 200 METERS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. RIDGING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPILLING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 3 PM SHOWED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOCALLY...WHICH WITH SUNSHINE HAD HELPED BOOST TEMPS. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WERE OCCURRING WHERE THE THICKER SNOWPACK WAS IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...FALLS CITY HAD REACHED THE UPPER 40S. TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THAT WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH FOG FORMATION. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD...MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND WE GET DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON SUNDAY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH THERE WILL BE PRIOR TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS UNCERTAIN. WARMING TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE PCPN MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AT LEAST INITIALLY. ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS START...THERE THEN MAY BE ENOUGH WHERE WE MAY NEED TO SWITCH THE HEADLINE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WAIT UNTIL LATER FOR A WINTER PRODUCT HEADLINE. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. PCPN TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT THAT SHOULD WET BULB/COOL AND TURN TO LIGHT SNOW FAIRLY FAST. SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW JUST A BIT OF CAPE. THE WINDY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE. BY 00Z TUESDAY... THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN FOR TUESDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL MONITOR THAT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE SHOULD BE A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WARMING DOES NOT SEEM GUARANTEED HERE LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AND THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS THE WARMEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD IN BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 14KT SHOULD BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST BY 06Z. THEN AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 20 TO 35KT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050. IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DERGAN

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