Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010432 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1132 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 TONIGHT EARLY AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ND. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SPREADING SEWD OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FORCING...850 TO 700 MB WAA HAD LED TO A BAND OF -RA FROM ERN SD INTO WRN IA. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY TO CONT TO SLIDE SEWD THROUGH THE ERN CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING ARE LIKELY TO ALSO SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN SD INTO NORTHERN NEB AS THE BETTER QG FORCING STARTS TO MOV TOWARD THE FA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE RESIDES...AND THIS APPEARS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS IT SPREADS SEWD WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT BEST VERTICAL MOTION MOVING THROUGH THE FA FOR A COUPLE HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA THEN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT SEWD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE EXITING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THERE ISN`T SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO POP UP...AGAIN ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFFECTING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THAT LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THAT WAVE COULD BE PAST THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WE COULD ALSO STILL BE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY THUNDERSHOWERS TO POP UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GFS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIPPLES AFFECTING AT LEAST EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPS SEEM VERY SEASONABLE IN THE 80S WITH NO OPPRESSIVELY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED. A STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT TIME. THAT WAVE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...OR IT MAY HANG UP ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER FOR TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...FOBERT

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