Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 030539 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THINGS GOING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED THIS EVENING. A MATURE MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NEB AT 00Z AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH IOWA TONIGHT. TROWAL FEATURE SEEN ON THE 300 KE SFC EXTNDD FM CNTRL MN INTO NE NEB AT 00Z. DIRECT AGEOSTROPHIC FRONTAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAS HAD WEAKENED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE A NEW FRONTAL CIRCULATION WAS DEEPENING OVER SE NEB INTO WESTERN IA. THIS DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STATIC STABILITY /EVIDENT FROM THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING/ AND WE SAW SOME 1+ IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. THIS BAND IS NOW MATURING AND WILL CONT TO DEVELOP EWD INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH THE SN EXITING SW IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID UPDATE A BIT EARLIER TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THAT BAND FROM WESTERN IA TO NEAR THE MO RIVER IN NEB WHERE SOME 2-3 IN TOTALS WILL BE COMMON. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD A 997 MB LOW WAS NOW LOCATED OVER SRN IA WITH 3-HR PRES RISES OF 3-5 MB MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB. THUS WINDS CONT TO BE STRONG OVER NE NEB...AND THIS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STILL SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND ROAD CAMERAS STILL INDC BZ OR NEAR BZ CRITERIA BEING MET IN NE NEB DESPITE THE INCREASE IN VISBY ON ASOS/AWOS SITES. THUS WILL LET THE BZ WRNG CONT...AND WITH THE BAND OF -SN AND WND MOVG THROUGH THE LNK/OMA METROS CURRENTLY WE WILL CONT WITH THE HEADLINES THERE AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 ONGOING WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD IS STILL THE MAIN FOCUS. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP...NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW...WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL KS. 210M 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOTED AT KDDC...WITH 120KT 500MB WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW...AND WITH A 150+KT UPPER-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW. 850MB LOW ALSO WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL KS...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/NEB AND MO/IA BORDERS...AND WITH STRONG FLOW BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KS...WITH WARM SECTOR DRAWING TEMPS IN THE 50S (!) INTO THE KFNB AREA. INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE LOW THROUGH KBIE/KLNK/KTQE. SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WERE IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE TEMPS BEHIND WERE IN THE UPPER 20S. TEXTBOOK FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND WAS NOTED FROM KSUX TO KOFK TO KBVN TO KGID...ALIGNED CLOSE TO AROUND A 700MB FRONTOGENETIC SIGNATURE. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE LOW WERE PRODUCING RAIN AND SLEET SHOWERS FROM AROUND KLNK TO KOMA TO KHNR AND SOUTHWARD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT WINDS DOWN AND EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TOWARD THE EAST...BRINGING MORE OF THE COLDER AIR IN BEHIND IT. DO EXPECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST NEB FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE BLIZZARD WARNING...EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT THAN CONTINUOUS AT THIS POINT. AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...WHILE WARMER/CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. SHORT-TERM MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY BAND IN SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA AS THE NORTHEAST NEB/NORTHWEST IOWA BAND FINALLY WEAKENS...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS TEMPERATURES LINGER ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS EVENING...AND HAVE KEPT WORDING AS A MIX. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REALLY START TO DECREASE OR EXIT ALTOGETHER CLOSE TO 06Z. HAVE KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED NEAR THE HEART OF THAT FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BUT ELSEWHERE...SNOW IS TOO HEAVY AND STICKY TO DO MUCH BLOWING ONCE IT IS ON THE GROUND. MAINTAINED A RIBBON OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING JUST SOUTH OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THAT POTENTIAL FOR JUST A BIT MORE SNOW...AS WE DID NOT WANT TO LET THE GUARD DOWN JUST YET...BUT DO THINK ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT AREA WILL BE MINOR. ALSO DROPPED THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AS WELL AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS VERY LITTLE SNOW HAD ALREADY FALLEN AND NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TOMORROW...UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THURSDAY...WITH QUIET WEATHER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT SHOULD NOT SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON/AROUND SUNDAY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRUSH WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN OR NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE SUNDAY TROUGH ALSO WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THAT TAKES TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A FEW FLURRIES AND THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY AROUND 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS AND GUSTY WILL DROP TO 15-25KTS AND GUSTY THROUGH 18Z...THEN 10 TO 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053- 066-078-088. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>044-050-065. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ055. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ UPDATE...BOUSTEAD SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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