Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
322 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Little in the way of significant weather is expected over the next
several days, with temperatures a tad above seasonal normals.

Upper air charts and water vapor satellite loops showed a pronounced
shortwave spinning through southwest Nebraska just past midnight
this morning, and should be progressing east of our area early in
the day. Behind this wave, zonal mid level flow will maintain rather
tranquil weather across much of the middle of the country through

Subsidence behind shortwave today should lead to plenty of sunshine
after mid level clouds move off to the east this morning. Southwest
low level winds on back side of retreating surface high pressure
will help temperatures climb into the lower and middle 80s.

On Monday, a weak surface cold front tied to a strong shortwave
moving east through southern Canada is scheduled to limp into
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. No significant weather is
expected with this boundary as layer moisture remains paltry over
our area. Mainly expecting a few more mid level clouds and light
surface winds favoring a northerly direction for a time during the

By Tuesday low level flow will return to southerly again as
pressures begin to lower in the High Plains with trough beginning to
drop into the Pacific Northwest and southwest mid level flow develops
across the Rockies. Shallow mid level ridging downstream will result
in continued mild temperatures in our area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

A more unsettled weather pattern looks to set up for the middle and
end of the week as upper trough in the West closes off and begins
ejecting into the Plains by the weekend. Southwest flow aloft early
in the longer term period will likely offer the best chances for
convection in Nebraska and Iowa before flow amplifies, placing our
area under ridge axis with storm track arcing from west to north of
the Central Plains.

Significant shortwave is advertised to eject into the Plains Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Broad warm advection regime will likely lead to
elevated convection beginning Tuesday night, before more widespread
convection occurs as wave and surface reflection move through our
area on Wednesday. Front remains close to the area Wednesday night
and Thursday, then strong warm advection signal is noted Thursday
night when surface front lifts north through our area under building
ridge axis. Much of Friday may remain dry under ridge axis before
vorticity lobe and moisture plume rotates east from the High Plains
into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late Friday night and


Issued at 1115 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. LLWS will
be possible in the morning at KOFK with southerly winds becoming
gusty Sunday afternoon. Omitted mention of the LLWS for now due to
its marginal nature.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Dergan
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