Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 201816 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 116 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Quiet and cooler weather today with northeasterly surface flow with zonal flow aloft. Highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s, still well above normal on this first day of Spring, but definitely not as warm/hot as yesterday. A weak wave moves out of the northern Rockies tonight and brings a chance of rain and snow to areas north of I80, which then moves through the forecast area on Tuesday. Thermal profiles are cool enough aloft to allow for some minor snow accumulations in northeast NE, generally 1/2 inch or less, with precip ending Tuesday afternoon. Most of Tuesday night would be dry, but precip chances again begin to increase across central NE, and with small chances after midnight across a portion of eastern NE by daybreak Wednesday. Thermal profiles again suggest precip chances would start off as a rain/snow mix, then all rain as daytime temps warm on Wednesday, with precip threat ending Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Precip chances significantly increase through the first half of the extended period as a deepening upper trough moves through the Rockies. Showers become likely Thursday as the initial surge of height falls develops across the Plains as the closed upper low moves onto the High Plains through daybreak Friday. Models are in much better agreement today, thus forecast confidence beginning to increase. Instability begins to develop by Thursday night and Friday with a high probability of precipitation as a cold front/inverted begins to move through the region. Colder air begins to move into the region on the back side of the surface low, which could change the rain over to snow in northeast NE Friday night. Still several days away, but the best chance for accumulating snow appears to be west and north of the forecast area. Still a chance of rain on Saturday on the back edge of the system, but by then, models are not in agreement on timing or synoptic evolution of the low, thus forecast confidence is low. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through most of the period as high pressure builds into the lower Missouri Valley. KOFK will see some MVFR cigs after 12Z with periods of MVFR vsbys in rain and snow as weak short wave moves across northern Nebraska.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Fobert

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