Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161118 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 618 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Temperatures and winds will be the main forecast concerns through the short term. Will keep the previously issued frost advisory going this morning. Mid level flow should gradually transition from northwest to west into mid week, with main energy tracking east along the border of the US and Canada. Surface pressure gradient will tighten today as high pressure moves east, and southerly winds will increase. Increasing boundary layer temperatures and rising thickness values suggest that NAM and GFS MOS are on track with highs today in the local area ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak front is expected to slide now into our northern zones late tonight but then wash out, as southerly flow increases again by Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday should reach the lower and mid 70s. A front should make a little more progress southward into the area Wednesday, but due to better mixing we expect highs mostly in the mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures that started earlier in the week should continue until Friday night. Highs should be mostly lower and mid 70s Thursday, then mid to upper 70s Friday. The 00Z GFS was the most aggressive of available models with pcpn development Friday evening (current and previous run of the ECMWF indicated dry weather). The GFS showed a low level jet increasing to around 50 knots and precipitable water (PW) increase into the 1.00 to 1.25 inch range Friday night. Will increase some low end POPs for parts of the forecast area. Models are actually in very good agreement that a nearly full latitude trough will progress east through the nations mid section from Saturday through Saturday night. Several things point to potentially heavy rain, including the GFS showing PW increasing to around 1.50 (about 230 percent of normal) boundary layer CAPE values of 800-1500 J/kg and fairly deep upward vertical motion. Have some POPs into the likely category (60-70 percent) Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Model timing is also good that the precipitation should end by daybreak Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 VFR conditions are expected through the period with increasing southwest surface winds throughout the day. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ044-045- 051>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.