Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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042 FXUS63 KOAX 160505 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1105 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 A strong surface cold front continues to drop south across South Dakota, bringing gusty northwest winds along with it. As the front dives through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight, strong cold-air advection will allow overnight lows to dip to near zero along the Nebraska/SD border to the mid-teens across the Kansas/Nebraska border. Combined with gusty northwest winds, wind chill values will dip into the negative teens across our north to the single digits in our south by Friday morning. Some light snow remains possible in our far northern counties yet this afternoon and evening in association with the frontal passage. Drier air will inhibit amounts, but a few flurries to a hundredth or two of snowfall accumulation is possible in our far north as a weak short-wave trough passes overhead. Cool surface high pressure will build overhead Friday with highs ranging in the mid 20s to low 30s. Fairly quiet conditions are expected through the majority of the weekend with temperatures warming into the mid 40s to even upper 50s on Sunday across southeast Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Upper-level flow will become more southwesterly by late Sunday as a deepening western trough digs across the Rockies. A surface frontal boundary is forecast to extend from surface low pressure over eastern Colorado into low pressure over southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon which should create a fairly tight baroclinic zone. Rain looks possible along this boundary, especially across western Iowa on Sunday night. Shallow cold air will drop south quickly which looks to create a period of freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning before a change over to all snow. Stronger forcing associated with the western upper trough is progged to move into the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday which could potentially set up a quick band of snow across the forecast area. Much colder air will follow behind the upper trough as a 1040+ mb surface high builds overhead. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 MVFR ceilings will linger for a few more hours but should be mainly out of the area and clear of the TAF sites before 12Z. Then expect VFR conditions to prevail after 12z. Gusty north/ northwest winds will slowly diminish then shift to the southwest, then south. Low level wind shear is expected to develop Friday evening as winds aloft increase to around 40 knots. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Miller

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