Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 171115 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 615 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TROPICAL STORM ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS KANSAS FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION TO OUR SOUTH HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED LAST EVENING SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SFC TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY. WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT HAD BEEN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM. A MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS NEAR 850MB FRONT AND SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL CARRY A SMALL POP IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FOG OVERNIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO MOVE OUT ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST AROUND 70. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE OVERHEAD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 06Z/SAT. EARLIER THIS WEEK WE WERE A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TS ODILE WAS GOING TO BRING TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WILL MOVE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. THE 00Z ECMWF WASHES THE COLD FRONT OUT OVER THE AREA WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 00Z GFS HOLDS ON TO A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT AND DROPS IT THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. IN ANY CASE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE SLOWED DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN FOR LINGERING PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST DRAGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z. VSBYS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE. LATER TODAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...MILLER

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