Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150854 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 354 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG I-80 IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THESE PULSED UP BRIEFLY BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 08Z. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA BY 18Z TODAY AND SO HAVE ENDED SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND THAT SAME TIME. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS AND IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY 00Z/TUE AND LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RADIATE OUT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. COOL START TO THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING PCPN CHANCES INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN WAA REGIME WITH VEERING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE RETURN COULD INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...BUT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY MID WEEK AS IT SLIDES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A FEW SMALL WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY UNDER THIS RIDGE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WAA ZONE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE COMPLICATED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ODILE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT AND IF A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES INDEED PAN OUT. TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD GIVE THE AREA POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KOMA/KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. OTHERWISE...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA...AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS... INITIALLY AT KOFK BY 10Z...AND THEN AT KLNK/KOMA BY 11-12Z. EASTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES...WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS OR ABOVE...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18 KNOTS. SKIES BECOME VFR AGAIN BY 16Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD

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