Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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285 FXUS63 KOAX 261137 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 637 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Slow moving mid-level cyclone that we have been dealing with for a couple of days is moving through eastern MO early this morning per WV imagery. The central and eastern CWA remain in an area of deformation around 700 mb though, and has resulted in some light showers or sprinkles this morning. Short term models indicate this trend may continue to around 14-15Z this morning and we will continue to mention this in the northeast CWA. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from western MN into central KS. Weak flow within this ridge axis will allow for the low clouds currently in place across the CWA to remain through the day today. Thus we have lowered highs a bit most areas. Early morning WV imagery also indicated that the next vigorous shortwave trough was moving through the 4-corners and into NM/CO. This is expected to quickly move across the central and southern Plains today. Although the bulk of the sensible weather associated with this system will stay to the south of our CWA, weak isentropic upglide into the southern FA may prove sufficient for some showers this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise the clouds will continue to hang tough tonight over the FA. As this system passes to the east on Monday we may finally get enough flow to erode the clouds from northwest to southeast across the area, although confidence is not great. If clouds do clear we may see temperatures get back to near normals with highs in the mid and upper 50s. The next trough will be moving through the Great Basin and dropping into the southern Rockies during the day on Tuesday. The bulk of the CWA and day looks to be dry with easterly low to mid level flow keep some dry air feed and holding of precipitation for most of the day, but there remains some chance in the far west of some showers toward the end of the day. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Although there have been some changes in the models solutions over the last 24 hours with the GFS and the EC starting to trend toward a consensus, both global models still have significant differences for the mid to late week system. The EC/GEM continues to be a wetter and cooler pattern while the GFS now indicates some precipitation, it still takes the bulk of the system to the south of our FA. Confidence though is growing that rain is likely at some point during the WED/THU time frame. Forecaster confidence remains low though on amounts, duration, and exact placement. We will continue with high chance to likely pops in the WED/THU time frame though. In addition it appears that with the clouds and at least some light rain we will see below normal temperatures and we have lowered highs closer to the operational EC during this time as well. The active pattern continues after the mid week system though with another trough expected next weekend with a chance of rain and continued cool temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 IFR cigs and vsbys are expected to prevail through 18Z as light surface winds keeps low level moisture in place behind departing weather system over western Illinois. MVFR conditions should develop by 18Z and continue through the remainder of the period as Illinois system continues to track northeast. Some IFR conditions may return after 06Z as the next system moves into the central plains.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boustead LONG TERM...Boustead AVIATION...Fobert

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