Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161755 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1255 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014 MORNING UPDATE TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HOLD ON TO SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARD SEWARD AND TWEAK CLOUDS AND OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. IN ADDITION...FOG WAS ADDED FOR LATER TONIGHT BY THE FORECASTER WORKING ON THAT PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD SEE A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. A FEW ECHOES WEST OF SEWARD DROPPING SOUTH DISSIPATED AND THE TOWERS VIA SATELLITE HAVE DECREASED. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TRACK ACROSS MONTANA. THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A CIRCULATION OVER IOWA WHICH EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THERE WAS DECENT MOISTURE WITH THESE SHORTWAVES WITH 7-8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS AND 15-16 DEGREE C H85 MOISTURE. HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WEAK FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA AND IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...WHERE FORCING IS A LITTLE STRONGER...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SHORT TERM FOG THEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TO START THE DAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG...MOST DENSE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. THOUGH AS OF 8Z METAR REPORTS SHOW THE THICKEST FOG AT BVN/OLU/JYR/MYZ. AREAS FURTHER NORTH MAY DROP IN VISIBILITY AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN WAS RECEIVED YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN NEBRASKA TO COVER THIS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL AS THE MAIN FORCING IS SITUATED WELL NORTH OF US. PROBABLY THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS MORE OVER OUR AREA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014 BEYOND THAT A SIMILAR TREND HOLDS WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNINTERESTING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014 LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING TO RESULT CLOUDS AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FL025-050. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD KOFK...RELATED TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE...WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK. FOG...DENSE AT TIMES SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AND MENTION ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...PEARSON LONG TERM...PEARSON AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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