Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 020511 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1111 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 The primary forecast concerns in this period are precipitation chances starting late Saturday afternoon through Saturday Night. Cloud cover tonight into Friday morning is also a concern, since it will affect temperatures. Large scale pattern at 500 mb featured a closed low over the northern part of the Ontario/Quebec border area and a couple of shortwave troughs digging into the Rocky Mountain region. Our area was in weak west/northwest flow. This pattern will be changing. A trough will sharpen from eastern Montana into western Arizona Friday morning and a closed low should form over southwest Arizona by Friday evening. That closed low will strengthen and drop down into Mexico Friday night and Saturday as a wave in the northern part of the stream moves out across the northern and central parts of the Plains. Models continue to show deeper moisture moving in during the day Saturday, but generally hold off precipitation development until Saturday night. This may need some refining as we get closer. Precipitation type will initially be rain, but then go to a mix and then light snow before ending. But amounts with this system look very light. Amounts and chances look higher to the south and east. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy south and partly cloudy to cloudy north tonight, but central parts of the forecast area will see variable cloudiness. Generally went around or a little lower than a blend of MOS where sky will be clear or partly cloudy. We still expect high temperatures to moderate slightly on Friday and then a bit more Saturday/Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 The first part of this period should be mainly dry, from Sunday night into Monday. We will continue to include precipitation chances from Monday night into Wednesday. But, as with the past several days, model consensus is poor. This means confidence on any one model precipitation scenario is low. For example, the 12Z GFS shows less than 0.10 inches of total water equivalent in our area, but the GFS ensemble mean shows over 0.25 inches. The 00Z ECMWF was dry Monday night and Tuesday, it but showed measurable snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. The 12Z ECMWF was not available for viewing as of 2045Z. Confidence remains higher (compared to precipitation details) that it will turn colder next week, and the trend for below normal temperatures could continue beyond Day 7. Bottom line, there is some potential for rain and snow next week, but it is way too early to talk about specific details or amounts. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 VFR cigs between FL050 and FL100 are expected to lift northeast of KOFK and KOMA TAF sites by Friday morning. Then only scattered mid clouds are forecast with light northwest winds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Dergan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.