Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242000 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A well-defined short-wave trough over the Dakotas today will weaken while tracking into the upper MS Valley tonight, ahead of a stronger mid-level trough traversing central Canada. In the low levels, an area of low pressure will develop across the northern Plains into upper MS Valley through Tuesday, while a trailing cool front settles southeast across those same areas. Strengthening southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will result in hot and humid weather returning to the region on Tuesday. The warmest temperatures (95-100F) are anticipated across our northwest counties, immediately ahead of the surface boundary. Afternoon heat indicies will creep back to above 100F across much of the area owing to the combination of warm temperatures and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front Tuesday afternoon/evening from western NE into SD as large-scale forcing for ascent is enhanced by a low-amplitude perturbation moving across SD and NE. Model guidance suggests that episodic thunderstorm activity will occur across the mid MO Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the front moving through the area. While vertical shear will not be particularly strong, pockets of modest instability will yield the potential for locally strong wind gusts and areas of heavy rainfall. The clouds and precipitation will limit daytime heating on Wednesday with highs primarily in the 80s. Showers and thunderstorms could linger across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA Wednesday night into early Thursday, along the leading edge of a cooler Canadian air mass overspreading the region from the north. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be mainly in the 80s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A long-wave ridge will re-intensify over the Interior West and High Plains during the long-term forecast period with troughing from the MS Valley to Atlantic Coast. This large-scale pattern will yield generally dry conditions with near-normal temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 VFR conditions at all three TAF sites with variable scattered and broken mid clouds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Pearson

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