Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 192047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
347 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

Forecast concerns in the short term will be increasing
thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and
continuing Thursday morning...also mild...possibly record warm
lows Wednesday morning.

The surface wind shift through 20Z had pushed through Nebraska
City and Red Oak Iowa. Temperatures ahead of the front made it
into the upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Behind the
front...dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s with temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s. Thunderstorms are firing along the front in
Wisconsin and eastern Iowa/ This is the area highlighted by the
SPC slight risk. Deeper moisture is forecast to come just up to
our eastern CWA and remain to the east...thus a dry forecast.

Surface high pressure will prevail over the area tonight. Low
dewpoint depressions and light winds in southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa are forecast and will mention fog in these areas.
as the surface high slides to the east Tuesday and the front
returns as a warm front there is h85 moisture pooled in northeast
Nebraska. The low level jet is focused more in South Dakota...then
into Minnesota/northern Iowa. Something to keep an eye
on...however will maintain dry forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The surface front moves little for Wednesday...however surface low
pressure re-focuses over the western Plains. Mild southerly flow
will hold temperatures up in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Normal
lows are around 50, so these lows are in reach of record warm
minimum temperatures...especially at KLNK where the record warm
min. is a weak one...70 set back in 1986.

Hurricane Paine is off the Baja coast and this storm weakens with
another tropical system forming and lifting north toward Baja
Tuesday. Moisture from these tropical systems is drawn northward
across the four corners area into the Plains Wednesday afternoon
along with shortwave trough energy ahead of the main h5 trough
over the Pacific Northwest. At this time have increasing pops from
isolated to scattered Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms
likely with shortwave...in the warm air advection regime and
along the front overnight. Thunderstorm chances continue for parts
of the area Thursday, however the organized storms track east of
the area as the shortwave and surface low move toward Wisconsin.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the 80s to lower 90s and
drop back into the 70s in northeast Nebraska behind the front
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

The main trough/closed low over Nevada will lift north then swing
east across the Northern Plains through Monday. Thunderstorms
chances will lift north of the local area and return Saturday and
Sunday with the slow moving front. Temperatures are still forecast
to be above normal with highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

A band of MVFR clouds could affect KOMA/KLNK through about 20-21z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through the period. North to
northeasterly winds this afternoon, with a few gusts to 18-22
knots, then light after that, but increasing again by 20/15z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...DeWald



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