Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211725 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S NOTED JUST NORTH OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF +14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BEHIND IT. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>033-042. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER

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