Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 152028 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 328 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO MO/IL AND EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD THAT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FROM CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST/FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BUT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT WITH MOST LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE 40. THE SFC HI WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON TUE WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY. WE MAY SEE A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN BUT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WAA WILL INCREASE ON TUE NIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS KS...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER ERN KS/MO AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSRA. WE WILL CONT WITH THE SCHC POP IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OF OUR AREA. WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WED/THU FOR THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE AS WELL AS H85 TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. THE WARMING MAY BE A BIT LIMITED AS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE GFS/ ALSO INDC SOME LIGHT QPF EACH DAY ACRS PARTS OF THE FA. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH DAYS. THUS WE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY ATTM UNTIL A FORCING MECHANISM BECOMES CLEARER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW ON THU NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT TO THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO BRING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON WE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN NEBR AS OF 17Z SHOULD MIX OUT/DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS. ALSO SOME WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THESE WERE INCLUDED IN 18Z TAF FORECASTS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...CHERMOK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.