Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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694 FXUS63 KOAX 191930 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Main concern is potential for severe thunderstorms through the evening hours. The atmosphere has continued to destabilize as temperatures south of the warm front warmed into the 70s. Meanwhile, northeast Nebraska was only in the mid to upper 40s. Surface low will track northeast this evening, probably reaching southeast Minnesota by just after midnight. The strong to severe storms should exit our area prior to 11 pm, but some high based showers still seem possible behind the front has depicted by recent experimental HRRR and experimental HRRR model output. Recent RAP model runs however are dry. Will maintain some low POPs for now well behind the front into the early morning hours. Look for northwest winds and lows in the 40s overnight. After tonight, we have a dry forecast until Friday afternoon. After the shortwave energy moves through tonight, we should see mid level ridging move in from the west. But at the same time, a trough will be digging from British Columbia Canada into western Colorado. Cool high pressure at the surface should build over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday, then move east. Current model guidance is not in exact agreement, but it appears that a Rex Block pattern should develop over the northern and central parts of the Plains, with the mid level low portion of the block slowly tracking east across Kansas and Missouri Friday through Saturday. Some precipitation, which may be locally heavy, should affect about the southern half of the forecast area. Highest chances are from Friday night into Saturday morning. High temperatures both Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Temperatures will moderate to highs in the upper 60s to around 70 for Sunday, then mainly lower 70s for Monday. Rain chances look fairly low on those days, except in northeast Nebraska. It looks like the main precipitation shield with a low pressure system moving through the region should stay up across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Another couple of systems will move through the mid part of the country next week. One will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, with another Wednesday night into Friday. The late week system looks cool, but not cool enough for any snow in our area.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Expect some improvement in ceilings at KOMA and KLNK for a while this afternoon until TSRA develop. Did not include strong winds or hail in TAFs for now due to low confidence on being right at the site, but will amend as needed. MVFR ceilings are expected to move in behind the cold front for tonight, then lift late tonight or Thursday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Miller

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