Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 100501
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1201 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Main forecast concerns center around precipitation and potential
for freezing temperatures in our northern counties.

A potent mid-upper low continues move just east of the Four Corners
region this afternoon with the associated surface low over central
Oklahoma. Scattered showers moved across the area this morning and
activity has weakened somewhat this afternoon but a few isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the KS/NE border
where some sunshine has led to higher instability in that area.

Ahead of the mid-upper low, large-scale forcing for ascent will
continue to increase. It may take a while to saturate in the lower
levels with prevailing low-level northeast flow, but point forecast
soundings indicate the better low-level moisture arrives tonight.
A strong mid-level frontogenetic band will set up across the area
late night into Tuesday morning and provide several hours of
strong lift giving the I-80 corridor some higher QPF values. Looks
like we should have a fairly sharp precipitation cut off on the
northern edge and so with some clearing in the north, we could see
a freeze across our far northeastern counties. In addition,
forecast soundings in our north hug the 0C line and so think we
may have the potential to see some snowflakes mixed in on that
northern edge of the pcpn band, for a few hours in the north at
least. No accumulation expected. Have converted only Knox and
Antelope into a Freeze Warning...thinking the other counties that
were previously in the watch will remain warmer under cloud cover.
This will be something to watch closely and do continue to mention
patchy frost there as well.

Precipitation will linger into much of Tuesday, tapering off from
west to east, finally exiting the region by Tuesday evening. Cool
surface high pressure will build over the region behind this system
and the potential for patchy frost across a good portion of our
western CWA Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Mostly dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the
work/school week with hit and miss rain chances returning for
portions of the weekend as another strong/quick-moving shortwave
drifts through the Central Plains. Models still in disagreement and
so forecaster confidence is fairly low with precipitation chances
and timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Showers/rain will continue overnight into Tuesday morning. KOFK
should be on the edge and thunder should remain to the
south...however KOMA and KLNK could see some isolated thunder for
the next few hours with strong frontogenesis. MVFR cigs with the
precipitation at KOMA/KLNK. North winds under 10kt at
KOFK...however stronger winds 10 to 20 kts at KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-016.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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