Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 182320 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 520 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCE AND TYPE LATE IN THE PERIOD. POOL OF WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS REMAINING AREAS REACHING THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIR. CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AIR MASS. MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALREADY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP INDICATED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. NO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE FORECAST SINCE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL MONITOR AND INCLUDE IF TREND CONTINUES IN LATER RUNS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014 PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM AIR OVER THE AREA AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXTENDED MODELS KEEP AREA ON WESTERN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TIMING SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS LATE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS...WHICH SHOULD THEN BECOME GUSTY ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY SURGE PRESSES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY FLURRIES WAS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN 00Z TAF...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WERE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...CHERMOK

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