Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 170424 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1124 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO FREMONT AND RED OAK). OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)... THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD TAF SITES BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WAS ALSO BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CIGS INITIALLY COULD BE ABOVE FL030...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KOFK. IT APPEARS LINCOLN WILL BE ON SW EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND THUS ONLY A TEMPO GROUP WAS CARRIED WITH INITIAL 06Z FORECAST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.