Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 240954 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 354 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES... WINDS...AND IF A WIND HEADLINE IS NEEDED. STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. H9 WINDS AROUND 25KTS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MIXED AND TEMPERATURES ELEVATED COMPARED TO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DRY...HOWEVER A LOOK TOWARD MONTANA SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS SWIFTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE. THROUGH SUNDAY...A 170KT H3 JET OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND DIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WEAKENING TO 110KTS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AT H5...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS WILL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH 120M HT FALLS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z...DEEPENING TO 170M HT FALLS OVER MISSOURI BY 12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FURTHER ORGANIZES OVER IOWA/NRN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1000MB. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND SIMILAR TO THE EC/GEM. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE PRECIPITATION SWATH THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA/IOWA THEN EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN THEN MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS INITIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID RAIN...THEN GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING. WE/LL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SWINGING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST SPOTS 0.05 OR LESS. THE BAND ACCUMULATING 1-4" SNOW SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THE WWD GRAPHICS HAVE THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR AMOUNTS IN SHELBY/EASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY...HOWEVER THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE OVER BY THE TIME IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. THE NAM H85 WINDS INCREASE FROM 25KTS AT 00Z TO 45 TO 50KTS WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE NAM MET HAS SFC WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO 19KTS AT OMA WHILE THE GFS MAV HAS 25KTS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED MOMENTUM TRANSFER...THE NAM WINDS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE. HAVE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 24 TO 28KTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRONG 15-25KTS INTO SUNDAY. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE DAYSHIFT AS A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWERED HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDCOVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MORE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. MUCH COLDER HIGHS FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP WITH LIGHT PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOT KEPT CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3500 FEET. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER

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