Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161715
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Appears that large scale flow is becoming a bit more progressive
thanks in part to deepening longwave trof digging off the Canadian
west coast. Wv imagery this morning a well amplified ridge extending
from the nrn Plain up thru cntrl Canada.

Increasing thkns building in from the west will contribute
relatively warmer high temps the next several days despite a dry
cold front making a push southward into the CWA Thursday night.
Fortunately bulk of cold air advection will be found just to the
east filtering into the mid MS Valley region. Using blend of
latest MAV/MET/ECMMOS numbers look reasonable for now...thus will
follow along with highs generally in the M50s northeast and M60s
southwest today through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Time sections across the CWA are clearly show declining max temps in
the extended periods...going from well above normal on Sunday(M70s)
to near normal next Tues/Wed/Thur(around 50). Going fcst has POPs in
place Monday night/Tuesday morning as well as Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning still look reasonable for pcpn associated
with increasing mid lyr ageostrophic forcing/300-305K upglide.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with ceilings
mainly scattered at cirrus level. The TAF does indicate
unrestricted visibilities, but it is worth noting that a couple of
models hint at MVFR visibilities when winds decrease tonight.
Breezy south winds today will become light and change directions
with frontal passage this evening/tonight, with speeds increasing
out of the northwest by around daybreak. Have included a mention
of low-level wind shear late tonight as north winds increase off
the deck while low-level winds are still lighter.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mayes



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