Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 172017 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 317 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014 WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN INTO KANSAS WAS CAUSING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND PRODUCING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LEAVING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR AREA. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO THIS COMBINATION OF SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS TO GAIN A CATEGORY EACH DAY...AVERAGING NEAR 80 FRIDAY...LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY. SIMILAR INCREASE FOR LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FRIDAY MORNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER THAT AXIS BENDS EAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AS PER GFS 850 LIFTED INDEX PROGS...COINCIDING WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THIS REGIME AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. BEYOND THEN...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES UNDER BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD CAP CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014 WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS WELL...WITH ONLY SMALL OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A GAIN OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH 90S THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 70S FOR A GOOD PART OF THE LONG TERM...AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO AVERAGE 100 TO 105 EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION WILL ENHANCE THESE CHANCES...BUT TIMING THESE THIS FAR OUT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AT BEST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL CONTINUE OUR SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN LAYER OF CU THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE 10Z-14Z AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...FOBERT

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