Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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689 FXUS63 KOAX 210451 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1151 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016 Primary forecast issues will be precipitation chances...mainly from Sunday into Monday and temperatures through the period. Main large scale feature of concern was the closed low along the west coast of the United States. 12 hour height falls at 500 mb of up to 170 meters were noted at 12z this morning. A jet max of around 120 knots at 300 mb was located on the west side of the circulation...so the system should continue to dig at least into the evening hours. Closer to home...the much weaker closed low that helped bring some light showers to parts of the area last night and earlier today continued to move northeast toward northern Illinois as of early this afternoon. As that moves away...mid level ridging will build over the area into Saturday night. Tonight...we could see some sprinkles from the leftover clouds early this evening...so did mention those mainly in northeast Nebraska. We could also see some showers into parts of northeast Nebraska late tonight..as hinted at by recent runs of the experimental HRRR model. Did not include anything for late tonight at this time...but will need to monitor. We will probably keep some low thunderstorm chances for western parts of the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. Storm chances are higher to our west...but some activity may be able to develop eastward into our area before weakening/dissipating. On Sunday... storms will likely develop to our west by late afternoon or early evening... closer to the front. Large scale forcing will be much better for late Sunday night into Monday...and precipitable water should increase to around 1.50 inches. Compared to the previous forecast...we slowed the eastward progression of storms...closer to the 12Z ECMWF solution. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016 The pattern will generally be unsettled through this period...and will have to include pops of at least 20 percent each 12 hour block. If anything...would still tend of favor the ECMWF solution...which would have Wednesday night and Thursday mainly dry. Starting Tuesday...we expect a 500 mb trough to stretch from central Canada southwestward to off the California coast. The southern end of the trough will move east into the Rockies by Thursday...with tendency for a closed low in the four corners region by that time. Timing individual shortwaves moving out into our area will be difficult and will have to fine tune precipitation chances as we get into early next week. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Sunday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016 VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. Mid level cigs between FL050 and FL120 should prevail, however there is a small chance MVFR cigs could approach KOFK and KLNK for a couple of hours around 12Z. Otherwise southeast winds near 10KT are forecast through the period. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Dergan

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