Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 292325 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN TUESDAY AND BEYOND. OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF CONVECTION IS REALIZED. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. MVFR FOG MAY REDEVELOP 09-13Z...AND COULD TEMPORARILY BE IFR AT KOMA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEWALD

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