Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242314 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 614 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET AROUND 75KT EXTENDING FROM NV INTO ND. 850MB MOISTURE WAS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH 12-20C DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST CO...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHERN MN...AND BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO THROUGH NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY RIDE AS IS THROUGH 8PM...WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105 OR GREATER. ELEVATED SHOWERS ONGOING IN CENTRAL NEB ARE MOVING INTO MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEB...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE CWA MAINLY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z OR EVEN 06Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING OUT OF WESTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AS THEY BOTH MOVE IN AND DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HINTS OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE ALREADY APPARENT...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOWING IN NORTHWEST KS. THAT SAID...FEW MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING. DID STILL DECREASE POPS FROM 00- 06Z...THOUGH KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR THAT ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS. CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER SIDE...AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. RESPITE IS SHORT-LIVED AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST INTO SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL RETURN TO A WARMING TREND. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THINK CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AT BEST...WITH FOCUS MORE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER NORTH AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. CURRENT PROGS ADVANCE THE FRONT MAYBE INTO NORTHEAST NEB BY 00Z WED. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO MATCH EXPECTATIONS. ALSO KEPT POPS OUT OF THAT WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGLY CAPPED ON TUESDAY...AND LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH SOME POPS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE CWA TO END THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 TIMING OF STORMS INTO THE TAF SITES IS THE PRIMARY PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD BE NEAR KLNK BY 02-05Z... AND KOMA BY 03-06Z. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY NORTH TO KOFK. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST TILL 10-12Z. UNSURE OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS BEYOND THEN...BUT BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KLNK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034- 043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...DEWALD

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