Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 170819 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS CANADIAN AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TIED TO UPPER LOW SPINNING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS DENOTED BY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BISECTING OUR CWA AS OF 06Z...WITH BATCH OF STRATO CU SPILLING SOUTH BEHIND IT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN OUR WEST. HOWEVER CLOUDS ERODING WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS CLOSER TO 40 THERE. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z...BUT COOL START WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AT OR ABOVE 40 AND BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 60S OR LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AGAIN SETTLING OVERHEAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY SUGGESTS WE WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN. THEN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDONAL WITH DEEP TROUGHS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE SHARP UPPER RIDGING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BULK OF ENERGY IN WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S OR HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TIED TO TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THEN...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE DAMPENING AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH TO COME OF THIS GIVEN LATEST FEW RUNS OF MODELS.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD TAF SITES BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WAS ALSO BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CIGS INITIALLY COULD BE ABOVE FL030...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KOFK. IT APPEARS LINCOLN WILL BE ON SW EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND THUS ONLY A TEMPO GROUP WAS CARRIED WITH INITIAL 06Z FORECAST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...CHERMOK

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