Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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462 FXUS63 KOAX 191115 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016 ...Hot and Humid Wednesday through Friday and could extend into the weekend... Forecast concerns in the short term will be convection moving into the forecast area today and how long it will last, then attention turns to the hot weather expected for the rest of the week and early this weekend and heat headlines. Water vapor satellite imagery and the WSR-88d mosaic shows abundant mid level moisture streaming from the Pacific and across Mexico into the southwest U.s. and the Rockies to the Midwest with a convective complex that has made its way across Nebraska. A low amplitude short wave over southeast Wyoming last night will track northeast toward southeast South Dakota by 18z today. Low level jet progs show a 35 to 40kt wind nosing into northeast and east central nebraska this morning...veering slightly and weakening to 30kts by 15z and 25kts by 18z while shifting north. The SPC HRRR/RAP13/ESRL HRRR are in general agreement with the convection lifting northeast across northeast Nebraska and with some enhanced storms in Iowa just outside of our forecast area. With this in mind combined with upper level jet support, abundant moisture, steep lapse rates, and best warm air advection, will maintain highest pops in northeast Nebraska and more scattered or isolated pops farther south. Some persistent warm air advection continues into the afternoon and although the bulk of the storms should lift out of the area...some could linger on the fringes of the warm air moving in. High temperatures today should be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The warmer air continues to build in with h85 temperatures warming from 22C to 26C to 30deg C over the next couple of days as the short range models have a large h5 high pressure system over the central part of the country. There are some perturbations in the flow which could produce a few storms...however with the 14 to 15 deg h7 temperatures in place...opted to keep the dry and hot forecast going for Wed through Thursday night. The mid level flow is still very moist during this period. Forecast soundings show inverted v soundings Friday...so something to keep in mind since we have isolated storms mentioned. Related to headlines...We have an excessive heat watch in effect with hot temperatures forecast for Wednesday through Friday. In coordination with surrounding offices a heat advisory/heat warning will likely be needed as heat index values of 105 to 110 appear likely. Will maintain the EH watch and a call today with surrounding forecast offices can convert headlines as needed with our hottest days being Thursday and Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016 The excessive heat will be firmly in place Friday and ahead of the front Saturday. The front will be our next chance for scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Cooler highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday. Monday and Tuesday look unsettled with a chance for thunderstorms each day as we have cool air to our east and warm air to the west with favorable convergence over parts of the area.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016 Spotty TSRA possible this morning...but at least for the initial 12Z TAFs will only include some VCTS. Main lift appears to have moved into western IA. Activity to the west has been moving east but not sure how much will remain intact through mid morning. Will amend as needed. Otherwise this afternoon and evening look dry but there will be some LLWS developing tonight.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Miller

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