Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231737
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1237 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE PRIMARY FCST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE TSTM CHANCES FROM TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND TEMPS.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING FEATURES OF
INTEREST. AT 850 MB...A RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM TX INTO MN. MOISTURE
AT THIS LEVEL WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF
COASTAL REGION. A RIDGE WAS ALSO IN ABOUT THE SAME AREA AT 700 MB
...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT 500 MB...A TROUGH WAS OVER THE
WRN UNITED STATES...WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 90 METERS
AT KOAK IN CA. A JET MAX OF AROUND 110 KTS WAS STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC AT 300 MB...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST WATER
VAPOR AND IR STLT IMAGERY SHOWED JUST SOME CIRRUS LOCALLY...WITH
AREAS OF FOG TO THE EAST IN IA AND THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WAS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO
THE WEST...FROM ERN MT INTO ERN CO. S OR SE WINDS WERE NOTED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. THE KOAX SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING ONLY HAD
ABOUT 0.33 PW. THERE WAS SOME BETTER MOISTURE TO OUR S.

TODAY...WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE FCST DRY. THE 00Z NAM AND EVEN SOME
RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS TRIED TO DVLP ISOLD LGT PCPN OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 06Z NAM AND MOST OF THE RECENT EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR RUNS DID NOT SHOW ANY PCPN. AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TODAY...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY OR WINDY. PREVIOUS FCST HIGHS LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD...MAINLY 75 TO 80...SO CHANGES WERE MINOR.

PCPN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT. GENLY FELT THAT MUCH OF
THE EVENING WOULD BE DRY...DESPITE SOME PCPN SHOWN BY THE GFS.
OTHER MODELS KEEP BEST PCPN CHANCES W OF OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. POPS MAINLY FROM 20-30 PCT SEEM PRUDENT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING. TREND SHOULD BE FOR PCPN TO TRY TO
DIE OUT SUN MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THAT. SPC DAY 2 OTLK SHOWS SLGT CHANCE OF
SVR AND BASED ON INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FCSTS...THAT LOOKS RIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG SEEM PSBL. THE
HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ACRS ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FCST
AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS TNGT 55 TO 60 AND HIGHS SUN MOSTLY MID OR
UPPER 70S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA MON...BUT LIFT LOOKS WEAK
SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PCT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON NGT...WITH CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER. BUT...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE ORGANIZING TO OUR W/SW
MOST LIKELY OVER UT OR NRN AZ. THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT TO WRN KS BY
12Z WED...THEN PROBABLY INTO IA BY 12Z THU. YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN CA BY THU MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT BY FRI...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW WILL PROBABLY OPEN UP AND MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE 00Z GFS WAS SLOWER BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS BACK TO THE
AREA ON TUE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. GAVE BOTH MODELS EQUAL WEIGHT
FOR NOW. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUE NGT/WED...WHICH MAY
HELP LIMIT STRONG STORM COVERAGE. CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING DRIES
THE AREA OUT FOR THE PD FROM THU INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PCPN IS
LIKELY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING TRACKS EAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT



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