Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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010 FXUS63 KOAX 211728 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016 00z upper-air analysis and early morning water vapor imagery indicate an upper low over south-central Oregon and an associated trough centered along the Pacific Coast states. Mid and upper-level wind maxima currently rounding the base of this trough will develop northeast through the central Rockies and into the northern High Plains by tonight, contributing to the reformation of the low over the northern Rockies, and the bodily movement of the parent trough through the Interior West. In the low levels, a loosely organized baroclinic zone presently arcing from the southern Plains into central High Plains will develop north today in response to the approach of the western U.S. trough. Warm advection and isentropic ascent to the north of this boundary will contribute to an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms over the central Plains today, with some of this activity potentially affecting our southwestern counties this afternoon into tonight. Elsewhere, a weak short-wave trough translating from the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley toward the mid Mississippi Valley will glance the region today, possibly generating some sprinkles this morning into early afternoon, mainly along and east of the Missouri River. Clouds again will temper daytime heating with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 00z ECMWF and GFS deterministic guidance remains consistent in suggesting that a vorticity lobe and associated mid and upper- level jet streaks will eject from the lower Colorado Valley into northern High Plains Sunday into Sunday night, promoting the eastward advance of a surface cold front across the northern and central Plains. The progression of this front is slower than previous model runs with the boundary likely not reaching our area until early Monday. Ahead of the front, breezy to windy conditions are expected Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Thunderstorms developing along the front over western Nebraska Sunday afternoon and evening should move into our area Sunday night, with periods of showers and thunderstorms continuing Monday. While a strong storm or two is possible late Sunday night, the better potential for a few strong to severe storms will exist Monday afternoon into evening along the front which will stall over our area. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016 As we have alluded to in previous nights, and which still appears to be the case, persistent troughing in the west will result in prevailing southwest flow across the Great Plains through the extended range. This upper-air pattern configuration will maintain a lee cyclone over the central High Plains with a low- level baroclinic zone oscillating north and south across the central Plains. Low-amplitude perturbations translating through this pattern will likely foster multiple thunderstorm episodes across the forecast area with some severe weather possible, and flooding appearing more likely. In fact, the most recent 7-day QPF forecast from the WPC, as well as 00z ECMWF and GFS run- cumulative QPF indicate a two to four-inch maximum over our area through the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016 VFR conditions are expected with southeast surface winds throughout the TAF cycle. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.