Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250822 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 322 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT 07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR. UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT 00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079- 080-090-091.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...DEWALD

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