Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 110446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEB/WRN IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER MT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THE
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH AND IS GENERALLY JUST HIGH LEVEL
IN NATURE...THUS MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WE HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST.

A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY. GOOD MIXING
WITH THE DRY AIR AND FULL SUN SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FROM THE SRN INTO CNTRL PLAINS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH AND WITH AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /CHARACTERIZED BY 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF +5 C AND 700
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM/ SPREADING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS...ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR OUR CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY.
WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SCHC OF PRECIP NEAR THE SD BORDER FOR
ANYTHING THAT CLIPS THAT AREA PER 12Z ECMWF.

AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. A GOOD PART
OF SAT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA UNDER A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DEW POINTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE CAP APPEARS TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT AND MESOSCALE
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP.
THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THETA-E DIFF OF 22...AND DCAPE
OF 1000 J/KG ALL SUPPORT ISO SVR STORMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. THE SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ON SAT EVENING AND SINK TO THE SOUTH INTO NE KS. WE HAVE LOWERED
POPS ON SAT NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS THE BETTER LARGER-SCALE FORCING
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF TO SUNDAY DURING
THE DAY. ON SUN THE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LEADING TO A NICE
BAND OF RA ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COULD END AS A LITTLE RA/SN MIX THOUGH THE LOWER-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY STAY TO WARM FOR A MIX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT EXITS TO THE EAST A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MON-WED LEADING TO DRY WEATHER BUT SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE EXTENDED THE GFS/GEM/EC ALL HAVE
VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP ON DAY 7 /THU/.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 6
KNOTS INITIALLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 11-12
KNOTS BY 14-15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 18 KNOTS. GUST
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12/00Z. WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD BRING A SPRINKLE TO KLNK 07-09Z IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



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