Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010446 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS...INSTABILITY IS EXTREME WITH 3000-4500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. THE STORMS DO HAVE A HISTORY OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH. REFERENCE THE LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND COULD EVEN BECOME A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN ROLLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN IN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT HOT CONDITIONS. A NEW COLD FRONT DOES MOVE BUT MODELS GENERALLY REMAIN DRY. THE FRONT DOES STALL NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEARLY A DAILY CHANCE AS SEVERAL IMPULSES AFFECT THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TRENDS FROM MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS. SOME PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY AROUND KOMA. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP/MOVE SOUTHEAST. ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. MENTIONED SOME VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AT KOFK WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THAT LOCATION FIRST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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