Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 231149 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 649 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 CLOSED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE LEAD WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...PUSHING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH IT. THE AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD BE ALMOST NORTH OF THE REGION BY 12Z...BUT COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SPOTTY SHOWERS ALSO ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA YET THIS MORNING...WHICH HRRR/RAP BOTH INDICATE. WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO STAY DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCEEIGN OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER CHANCE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN ON THE WARM/UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING RAIN LIKE WE HAVE HAD THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOIST JET AXIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WE ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST. THIS WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED WITH H70 TEMPS IN THE +11/+12 RANGE...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR OR ALONG I80... WHICH AGAIN COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR A 20/30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL DELINEATE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DECENT BUST POTENTIAL BASED ON WHERE FRONT SETS UP...BUT STILL PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE REGION...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION WITH ECMWF REMAINING VERY SLOW AND DEFINITELY COOLER...WHILE THE GFS SWEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR LATER ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXITING THE AREA AND MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z...THE SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND HELP MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...INCREASE SFC WINDS TO 12-16KT SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE MAY BE SOME RE- DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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