Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 260449 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1149 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Milder and drier conditions continue across the region. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates weak upper-leve ridging over the 4 corners and mid-Atlantic regions, with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes and a weak trough just coming into the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level jet max extended from IA through the Great Lakes and toward northern New England, with another upstream jet max in the Canadian Prairie provinces. 850mb high was centered right over eastern NE/southeast SD/western IA, with moisture shunted south and east as drier air filled in. Surface high at 19z also was centered in eastern NE/southeast SD/western IA, with predominantly clear skies. Main forecast concern revolves around when chances for showers/storms will return to the region. Moisture will begin to return to the High Plains of NE/SD/WY/CO tonight, but the associated chances for showers/storms should remain well west of the area. Have continued a dry forecast for tonight and most of Tuesday across the area. Did keep a very small area of slight chance pops in far northeast NE on Tuesday afternoon and evening, but confidence in that materializing is very, very low. Moisture return does shift further east on Tuesday night, but upper-level shortwaves remain west of the CWA through Wednesday morning, and have continued to lean dry. By Wednesday afternoon, shortwaves finally approach the MO River valley, with some moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon, especially further west in central NE, and then are more likely to move across the CWA on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Shear profiles look awfully weak, so severe weather threat would be limited, with some threat of locally heavy rain. Evolution on Thursday becomes more uncertain. Morning convection would hinder destabilization and later convection, so the best guess is that chances of showers/storms would decrease through the day. ECMWF and GFS have large differences in placement of a surface low that would regenerate convection on Thursday. Have left in chance pops through the day for now, with low confidence. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Low confidence continues Thursday night into the weekend. Upper- level pattern remains northwesterly through around Saturday night or Sunday, and any shortwaves in the flow could produce precipitation provided the low-level environment isn`t already overturned. Have kept slight chance to chance pops through Saturday night/Sunday, with temperatures near normal. From around Sunday or Monday, an upper-level ridge is progged to build back into the central US, bringing rising heights, warming 700-mb temperatures, and of course, warmer surface temperatures. The forecast for Sunday through Monday is dry, with temperatures poking back into the 90s by Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 VFR conditions for most of the TAF period...however some patchy fog may affect the TAF sites with high dewpoints and little wind Tuesday morning. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mayes LONG TERM...Mayes AVIATION...Zapotocny

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