Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 252359 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 659 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS POINT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AFTERNOON PWATS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING VALUES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS ALSO IN EXCESS OF 11000 FT THIS MORNING AND STORMS ENTERING THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE BEGINNING TO TRAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...IN FAR SE NEBRASKA WHERE LOCALLY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NE FROM 7PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHEAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...THUS THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSHOWERS HERE OR THERE...BUT THOSE END THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD BRING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE. MODELS DO HINT AT A VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE WAVE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF SYNC ON THE TIMING. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 A COUPLE OF AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FOCUS ON FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING/S FORECAST. THERE IS A FRONT IN KANSAS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED SOUTH OF KLNK. H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE BORDER THIS EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE SECOND AREA IS WITH H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION/SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FORCING SHOULD ASSIST IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA EASTWARD. THE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER NEAR THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WITH THE SHORTWAVE WITH MENTION SHOWERS...BUT LEAVE TSRA OUT DUE TO THEIR UNCERTAINTY LACK OF FORECAST INSTABILITY. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RAP IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW MENTIONED MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LATEST RAP13 IS SUGGESTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH...PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND K INDICES OVER 40. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO EXTEND ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT SHOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR/RAP13 ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE LOWER TIER COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE PROBABLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OPTED TO REMOVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH FROM LANCASTER COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH OTOE...FREMONT AND PAGE COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES HAVE MISSED THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE SETTING UP SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES TONIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ078-088>093. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...KG/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY HYDROLOGY...KG/DEE

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