Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280903 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 403 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED CLOSE TO KOMA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY LATER MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...KERN

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