Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 261717 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD. PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF 17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX. ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NERN NEBRASKA OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AS IT TRACKS SE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE NORFOLK AREA...BUT WILL BE WORKING INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SE OF THERE...AND COULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OMAHA. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IT AT OMAHA...AND OF COURSE ALSO OFK...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF LINCOLN FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT COULD REFOCUS MORE ENE OF THAT SITE. OTHERWISE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL PRECEDE CONVECTION AND SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NNW ON SUNDAY...BUT A SEPARATE GROUP WAS NOT INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND DUE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE SHORTER TERM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK

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