Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 252102 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY. 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011- 012-015>018-031>034. IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043- 055-056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ056- 069. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...KERN

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