Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 070016 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 616 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will mainly be exiting precipitation...then temperatures and flurry or light snow chances through the next week. No significant storm systems are forecast although a couple light snow chances exist. At mid afternoon...a band of light snow/flurries was pushing south through the area. The WSR-88D dual pol radar imagery supported by surface observations highlighted that there was mainly snow in the band, however some mixed precipitation in the form of sprinkles and sleet were also noted. The band is on the leading edge of colder Canadian air...with the cold front. In addition to the clouds and snow, gusty northwest winds will continue at 15 to 30 mph. At 20Z...2-3mb pressure rises were noted behind the front . H85 temperatures started out the day around minus 5deg C tonight and Thursday morning they will be down to minus 12 to -14 deg C. Flurries will be possible wherever there are clouds with dendritic growth zone (DGZ) temperatures. A pocket of stronger winds are rotating through Minnesota and this could kick off a few flurries. There is a coating of snow in northeast Nebraska and not sure how much this will offset the winds, however do have low temperatures in the single digits to middle teens tonight. Sunshine is forecast for Thursday. It will remain cold with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. The longwave trough pushes through the Ohio River Valley with rising heights over the Plains. Meanwhile...a strong upper level jet with the left exit region over the area combined with upward vertical motion is expected to produce increasing clouds late Thursday night and Friday. Moisture in the DGZ favors flurries and light snow for part of the area. So far the models show the moisture, but do not have snow accumulations, so for now will mention flurries. Reinforcing cold air drops south on the back side of the trough with increasing winds and H85 of -10 to -15 over parts of Iowa accompanied by h85 winds. This should hold temperatures into the 30s most places until the cold air shifts east. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 Even warmer air spreads east Sunday. The h5 ridge remains anchored over the western U.S. and much of the Plains is under the influence of warm westerly winds. A shortwave trough in the north flow breaks down this ridge with an influx of cold air. The Arctic air signal is stronger with the GFS with -20 to -24 deg at h85 for the Great Lakes, while the EC in not as cold with -16 to -20. Either way, look for temperatures to be cooler for Monday and there could be another band of light snow with this front. The blends warm temperatures up for Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 615 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 High pressure will build into the area during the period as an upper trough drops southeast into the mid Mississippi Valley. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the period with occasional MVFR cigs through 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Fobert

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