Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 221105 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 605 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Radar returns continue to increase and spread east across central Nebraska but sfc obs continue to show little, if anything, reaching the ground due to dry low levels per ceiling heights. Will still carry some small pops across the northern half of the CWA through the morning as weak isentropic upglide continues in mid-level warm air advection regime. Otherwise, upper level ridging continues to build overhead this morning with the ridge axis forecast to extend over the mid-Missouri River Valley by 06z Thursday. Some peaks of sun are possible today, but thick low level clouds are expected to expand northward later tonight in advance of a strong Great Basin trough. Have increased lows tonight based on increasing stratus deck overnight and possible showers or patchy drizzle. Light showers or drizzle will likely continue into Thursday morning. A cold front will drop south across the CWA Thursday evening as the upper trough continues east over the Rockies. This is when we introduce thunder into the forecast with fairly strong convergence along the boundary. The front slowly slides south through the day Friday leading to continued showers north of the boundary and a chance of thunder to the south. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Showers are likely to continue into Friday night and Saturday as the upper low slowly moves east across the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Weak shortwave ridging will move overhead Sunday followed by another upper low/trough which is forecast to affect mainly Kansas and southeastern Nebraska Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Light pcpn, light snow or a light rain/light snow mix, was scattered over parts of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early this morning. As of 6 am, cloud bases were still mainly above 5000 feet. Will include TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions and light precipitation this morning. We generally loose the lift needed for precipitation by early afternoon, so ceilings should be mainly VFR this afternoon and evening. Then low clouds are likely to move in tonight, with strengthening southerly flow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Miller

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