Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250440 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014 QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW... BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS. THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014 COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND NOW...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...IT MAY AFFECT KOMA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLNK AND KOFK.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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