Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 272334 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 534 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014 TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS. SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS LATE DAY 2/DAY 3. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014 COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...DERGAN

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