Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 011645 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1145 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 FRESHENED GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT BECAME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES. MORE ON THAT LATER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 TODAY MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS PCPN DEVELOPMENT PROGGED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. HRRR/RAP13 BOTH ARE GENERATING A NARROW STRIP OF PCPN EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS TO ERN SD ALONG AXIS OF 850-700MB AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT WHERE POCKET OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESIDES COINCIDENT TO LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND SHOULD BE AT AN END BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAV/MET BOTH LOOK REASONABLE WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DAKOTAS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE TAIL END OF THIS COULD BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY RANGE WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE REGION IN THE WARM AND MUGGY UNSTABLE AIR. UNCERTAIN OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY THIS TIME...PW VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.7 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHICH IS IN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE CATEGORY...THUS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.9 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SATURDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE DRY AS WELL AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE REGION SHOULD NOW BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY AT KOFK AND KLNK. LOW CLOUDS WERE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLIER TODAY. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. PCPN CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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