Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 170442 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY MINOR IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS THAT COULD CREATE A CHANGEABLE FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN NWRLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE FA. ANY UPPER WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA ARE WEAK AND ILL- DEFINED...WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PROBABLY PROVIDING MUCH OF ANY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES ACROSS MOSTLY SERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THUS A SMALL TSTM CHANCE WAS MAINTAINED GENERALLY S THRU SE OF LINCOLN. ALSO AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...ROUGHLY MARKING THE EDGE OF THE H85 MOISTURE RETURN...WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE FA EARLY AND MAY LIMIT FOG REDEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG MAINLY SRN AREAS OUTSIDE OF WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED AS LOW/MID 50 DEWPTS SPREAD NE. CLOUDS SHOULD BRING MILDER LOWS TO THE FA WITH LITTLE CHANGES. THE LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO MIX OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF POINT TO MAX TEMPS PERHAPS A CATEGORY WARMER THAN EARLIER FORECAST AND THESE WERE RAISED TO NEAR MET GUIDANCE. HEATING AND INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR LATE AFTN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SWRN ZONES...WITH SREF INCREASING RISK LAST FEW RUNS...AND A SMALL CHANCE WAS INSERTED LATE WITH POPS CARRIED INTO WED NIGHT FAR S. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...A SMALL CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT DOES EXIST AS SHEAR IS A LITTLE SUPPORTIVE. AS H85/SFC DWPTS CONTINUING RISING INTO WED NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AGAIN LOOK LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH FOG AND DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE...WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO ASSESS DEPTH AND OTHER FACTORS. WITH INCREASING SERLY WINDS THU AFTN SOME BREAKS EXPECTED...BUT POSSIBLY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET AS WARM AS THOSE FORECAST FOR WED. AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE FA TOWARD FRIDAY...LEFT IN SMALL POPS NERN ZONES THU NGT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS ALLOWING MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO SPREAD NE AS WELL. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF AT LEAST THE NEXT 7...WITH GOOD MIXING ON MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. BOOSTED BOTH WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 LOOKS LIKE 12Z ECMWF TAKES REMNANTS OF TS ODILE THRU KS... FOLLOWING LEAD OF FARTHER S GFS WHICH CONTINUED TO DO SO WITH 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ON ITS NORTH END COULD STILL BE OVER THE FA AND WITH NRN STREAM WAVE DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS...HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED SERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. LINGERED SMALL POPS FAR SE SAT NIGHT...BUT COULD VERY WELL SEE THE ACTIVITY SE OF THE FA BY THEN. REST OF THE FORECAST WAS DRY. WITH BULK OF MOISTURE FM ODILE POSSIBLY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...AMOUNT OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AND/OR CLOUDS MAY BE LACKING ENOUGH TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO APPROACH THOSE OF FRIDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/SRN ZONES. BUT FOR NOW LEFT MODEL BLEND ALONE WITH MOSTLY 70S FOR HIGHS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF BLEND SUGGESTING LOWER-MID 70S FOR MAX TEMPS. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAX/MINS SOME IF TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST DOES SO A BIT FARTHER SW. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER AROUND FL045 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SKIES CLEAR OR SOME CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. RAP MAINTAINS 850MB RH OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE SO IF THIS IS THE CASE FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AT ALL SITES. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...FOBERT

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