Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 270850 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 WV imagery this morning showing northwest flow aloft with an upstream shortwave ridge over the northern high Plains followed by a a shortwave trof currently moving ashore over the coastline of British Columbia. Also noted was scattered convection riding atop aforementioned ridge in MT. At the surface...large area of high pressure was in control over the central CONUS. Models are in pretty good agreement potential for severe storms will exist over the next several days along with a good chance for a prolonged period of precipitation for some location. Increasing low level theta-E advection coupled with daytime heating will allow for quick destabiliation as a warm front lifts northward this afternoon. But with strong cap in place...convection will likely be held in check until late afternoon. At any rate...initiation is progged on nose of steep sfc-3km lapse rates/edge of cap over swrn SD/nrn Neb panhandle. Line of convection will increase in intensity/areal coverage this evening as it pushes eastward with onset of strengthening low level jet. Activity will likely be in the form of a QLCS when it reaches the CWA shortly before midnight...leading to a probable damaging wind event. Precip into Wednesday most likely to be found over the eastern CWA as a cold front moves in from the west. Models prog this cold front to stall from about s-cntrl IA to n-cntrl KS Wednesday night...and remain in the vicinity of the southern CWA all the way into Thursday night. This...in addition to a shortwave trof approaching from the northwest will lead to the potential for an additional round severe storms and generous rainfall. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Precip chances return to the region next weekend with better chances coming early next week in association with a Pacific NW trof pushing into the central Plains. Otherwise...expect max temps to be just below normal over the weekend with near normal temps early next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast cycle. Light and variable surface winds will become southerly and increase with gusts to near 30kts by late afternoon/early evening. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Did add a Prob30 group to account for pcpn chances. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Kern

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