Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 311736 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1236 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED...AFTER A FOGGY MORNING START. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT AT KOFK...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-12KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. LATE TONIGHT/CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...MAY SEE A RETURN OF MVFR VIS AT KOMA/KLNK FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT WINDS...AND FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A GROUP FOR THOSE VIS CONDITIONS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...MAYES

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