Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181056 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Continued dry and warm through Friday. Weak west/northwest flow aloft will continue today as a weak upper level ridge slides east across the Southern Plains. A strong shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces will allow a cold front to drop southeast and weaken as it moves across our area this afternoon bringing primarily a wind shift and perhaps some better mixing along the boundary during peak heating. Highs today should range from the mid to upper 70s. A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to build overhead tonight into early Thursday with return southerly flow increasing during the day Thursday. By Thursday night, strong theta-e advection is expected ahead of an approaching shortwave trough over the southwestern US. This trough tends to weaken as it slides northeast into late Friday however a stronger trough will quickly move east out of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern High Plains by early Saturday. At the surface, the associated frontal boundary will extend from the eastern Dakotas southwestward into low pressure over northern Kansas. A strengthening low-level jet overnight Friday into Saturday could aid in nocturnal thunderstorms over the area. Thunderstorms look to become more widespread through the day Saturday as the strong front dives southeast across the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Precipitation should be quick to clear from west to east Saturday evening as the upper trough axis shifts east of the forecast area. Moderating temperatures are expected into next week as a deepening trough to our east keeps the colder temps across the eastern third of the US. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A cold front analyzed from eastern ND to western SD as of 10z will advance southeast through the forecast area today with surface winds veering from south to north with the passage of the boundary. Outside of increasing high-level cloudiness, expect prevailing VFR conditions through the forecast period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mead

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