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000
FXUS63 KOAX 111708
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Water vapor imagery this morning was revealing an upper circulation
currently centered over the mid MS valley gradually lifting to the
northeast. Out west, a deep longwave trof extended southward from
British Columbia to just off the CA coastline. Meanwhile...surface
high pressure was in control across the central Plains.

For this morning...nighttime imagery band was showing a large area
of stratus over most of IA and MO...extreme SE NE...ERN KS. Both the
HRRR and NB advertise the stratus deck exiting the CWA shortly for
sunrise, leaving sunny skies in place the rest of today.

Precip chances return to the area on Friday in association with a
slow moving cold front dropping out of the Dakotas. NAM/GFS/ECM are
in decent agreement the front will reach western SD early Thursday
morning with the leading edge into the northern CWA by late
afternoon. Post-frontal precip finally develops then late Thursday
evening within area of increasing isentropic upglide/low cond pres
def...in the NE panhandle. Precip activity expands then along the
northern flank of the cold front from WI into northeast NE where mid
layer ageostrophic forcing will be most prevalent.  Precip activity
carries into Friday night as the cold front turns quasi-stationary
with bulk of rainfall along and south of the I-80 corridor. All
told...the NAM/CMC both advertise minimal accumulations overall
across the CWA while the GFS/ECM are more bullish with QPF.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Early on in the extended periods...stalled boundary over KS/MO is
progged to lift northward Saturday morning and stall out over the
CWA before retreating back to the south Sunday morning. Both the
GFS/ECM are in decent agreement with QPF and ending precip by Sunday
afternoon. Dry conditions then advertised early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

A surface ridge axis over the mid-MO Valley as of late morning
will shift east with winds strengthening from the southeast,
particularly by mid to late morning on Thursday. VFR conditions will
prevail with the potential for an increase in mainly mid and
high-level clouds on Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead