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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161156
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
656 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Two areas of ongoing convection this morning over central and
parts of eastern Nebraska. Convection over central Nebraska is
associated with a surface cold front and mid level trough from the
central Dakotas into northwest Kansas, while eastern Nebraska
convection associated with warm advection and overrunning of an
outflow boundary across southern Nebraska. IR satellite loops
show the colder cloud tops and stronger convection ahead of the
surface front and upper trough while cloud tops have in general been
warming across eastern Nebraska with isolated colder tops
developing now and then.

General trend will be for the surface front and upper trough to
move east today and tonight with rain chances increases for the
forecast area. Heavier rainfall is expected to focus more across
eastern and southern parts of the forecast area today as the
system moves through with less widespread heavy rainfall rates
for areas that received the heavy rain yesterday. Will cancel
flash flood watch currently in effect for northern parts of the
area a bit early, prior to this forecast issuance. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may linger through this evening but
stronger forcing is expected to be east of the area with front
pushing into western Iowa by early this evening and showers ending
after midnight. Dry weather follows behind this system on
Thursday but another chance of rain enters the picture by late
Thursday night and Friday as another upper trough swings through
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

First part of the period looks to be dry through Saturday before
some chance for more intermittent showers and storms return
Saturday night through Tuesday, although models differ on
solutions. Main concern will be for Monday the day of the
eclipse. No model consensus for that period at this time but some
potential for showers and thunderstorms and clouds of course as both
the GFS and EURO show a surface frontal boundary approaching the
area from the northern plains during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Nebraska
TAF sites through most of the morning. Some additional development
is likely in the afternoon, but will be more spotty and thus not
included in TAF at this time. A brief period of MVFR or IFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible in and just behind precipitation,
however mainly VFR cigs are forecast beyond initial band of
heavier rainfall. All precipitation should be east of TAF sites by
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan