Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280451
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TSTM CHANCES WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 60 METERS AT 500 MB AT 122...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD TONIGHT. 12Z KOAX SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY MOIST WITH A PW
OF 1.69 INCHES AND MU CAPE OF AROUND 3200 J/KG. MOST RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ENERGY STILL MOVING TOWARD THE LOCAL
AREA...SO STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KMCK.
A WARM FRONT CURVED S/SE FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO CNTRL KS...WHILE A
COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM WRN NE INTO WRN KS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE AROUND 3000 J/KG FROM PARTS OF CNTRL NE INTO
NCNTRL KS. 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS ADEQUATE...MAINLY 30-40 KNOTS.

PW VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE BEST PARAMETERS FOR HEAVY RAIN SEEM TO BE COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS NERN NE/SERN SD/WRN IA/SWRN MN. WILL MENTION AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.

PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 18Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WE EXPECTED AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FOG. DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATTERN AT THE START OF THIS SHOULD HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NM TO WI AND A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA DOWN INTO
CNTRL CA. THESE FEATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PCPN SHOULD STAY TO OUR N AND W.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

RADAR MOSAIC TREND THE LAST FEW HOURS REVEALING THAT AREAL COVERAGE
INCREASE MAINLY OVER NERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING REVOLVING
AROUND SFC LOW SITUATED IN SERN NEB. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING.
AFT 10Z...CONDITIONS AT KOFK DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TERRITORY
THRU ABOUT MID MORNING. AS FOR KOMA/KLNK...HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
PLACE TO TSRA ACTIVITY BTWN 06Z- 10Z. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE


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