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000
FXUS63 KOAX 120458
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013


.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

GOING TAF IN GOOD SHAPE...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. AVN
CONCERNS STILL FOCUSED ON KOFK. AREA OF TSRA WAS MOVING INTO NERN
NEB ALONG A NEAR-STATIONARY SFC BNDRY. THIS HAVE MAINTAINED TEMP
GROUP IN ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTION MOVING THRU. HOWEVER...STORM
TRAJECTORY PER RADAR TRENDS THE LAST HOUR SUGGEST IT IS POSSIBLE TSRA
ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN JUST NE OF KOFK. DO NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA
ACTIVITY AT KOMA/KLNK. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SWING
SFC WINDS TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

DEE



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN
CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM SOUTH WESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST
KANSAS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL
INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE BOUNDARY GENERATING QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAS REALLY LIMITED MAX HEATING
POTENTIAL. NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE PRODUCING MODELS CONTINUE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING IT EAST LATER THIS
EVENING.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AND ROLL EAST AS AN
MCS OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
ROLL OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
EXTEND OVER THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AS ANY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW COULD SPAWN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LOOK POSSIBLE INTO DAY 7 AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING TO
OUR WEST.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

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