Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 121656
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1056 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Water vapor imagery this morning showing a well defined
circulation currently digging through the Great Basin heading
toward the southwestern states with 500H height falls around
16-18dam preceding the system. Ahead of the upper low, a large
expanse of Pacific moisture was streaming across the Rockies into
the northern/central Plains. At the surface...large area of high
pressure was centered over southern Saskatchewan was continuing
to build southward into the lower 48.

Main concern continues to be how snow cover will affect
temperatures the next several days. For today, max temp gradient
will likely be 10 deg or more across the CWA. Albedo affect up
north will likely slow the warming process with temps struggling
to reach the mid teens. To the south/less snow cover...expect
highs may be able to push into the low/mid 20s. On Tuesday, a
noticeable warming trend is on tap in part to winds taking on a
southerly component. Highs though will still be hindered, but
low/mid 30s still look attainable. On Wednesday, a relatively
strong thrust of warm advection will bring a welcomed reprieve
from the cold with highs ranging from the low 40s across the
northeast CWA to the low 50s southwest.

Otherwise, there appears to be a small chance for a brief shot of
light snow over the extreme northern CWA during the late evening
hours tonight in part to pocket of 295k upglide. Therefore seems
reasonable to going with slight pops along with mention of a few
flurries.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Meteograms unfortunately are showing another bitterly cold air
mass sweeping into the central Plains later this week with well
below normal highs in the mid 20s come Friday. However, the roller
coaster ride continues with highs rebounding into the upper
30s/low 40s on Saturday, with mid/upper 40s on Sunday.

Otherwise, weak impulses passing through Thursday afternoon/evening
may bring a small chance for light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
increase slightly today, but remain south/southeasterly with a
deck of high clouds in place. Some light snow or flurries may be
possible at or around KOFK between 00Z-05Z this evening, but
confidence in it`s occurrence remains too low to mention in the
TAF at this time. LLWS will also be possible at all three TAF
sites between 06Z-14Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG



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