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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230510
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF WARM UP BEFORE THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT AGAIN
MID WEEK. WAA ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING SFC HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS AND
MONDAY INTO THE MID 20S. ON TUESDAY THEN...MIXING WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE U30S/M40S.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS FCST PACKAGE IS POSSIBLE SNOW LATE IN THE
PD FROM LATE TUES DAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN. LATEST
NAM/ECM/GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT BUT DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT. THE
NAM/GFS IN AGREEMENT AXIS FAVORING SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR FRONTOGENESIS/OPTIMUM 850MB T/INCREASING MID LYR LAPSE
RATES EXTENDING FROM WRN ND TO NERN KS. THE CMC/ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND ADVERTISE THE SNOW TRACK A BIT FARTHER NE OF THE CWA FROM
WRN ND INTO CNTRL IA. HOWEVER...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. APPEARS THOUGH THAT
BOTH THE ECM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PROJECTED
SNOW TRACKS...MAKING ACCUMULATION PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
PRELIMINARY THOUGH IS TO JUST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR ACCUM
PLACEMENT...BUT WILL RE- EXAMINE BEFORE ZFP ISSUANCE. AS FOR
TEMPS...ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION BY WED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO
THE MID 30S TO THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

MODELS IN AGREEMENT LITTLE HOPE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL REBOUND FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE TROF
REMAINS DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS.

ECM/GFS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND THRU THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEKEND. RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE OH VLY IS PROGGED TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND PHASE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. ECM/GFS TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
SN ACTIVITY ARE SIMILAR...BUT QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO
AMOUNTS WITH THE ECM BEING INCREDIBLY BULLISH. TOO FAR OUT THOUGH
TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT SAT/SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
COULD OCCUR AROUND 12Z AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS GO CALM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE 18Z AND INCREASE INTO
THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN