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000
FXUS63 KOAX 110845
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
ONES ARE TSTM CHANCES...PCPN AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DID BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE 7 AM. PCPN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING SEEM PRETTY LOW BUT WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST MIXING AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 70S. IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS COULD
BE MET IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. 850 MB DEWPOINTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 5-10 DEGREES C. FOR NOW...KEPT TREND OF RECENT
FORECASTS AND LEFT SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ACCAS DEVELOPING BY 09Z BUT DISSIPATING BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY FROM
48 TO 54.

THINGS COULD GET MORE INTERESTING ON SATURDAY...WITH BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING DEVELOPING. SPC DAY 2 OTLK NOW HAS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IN THE SLGT RISK AREA. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS
850 MB DEWPOINTS REACH 10-12 DEGREES C. SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE
ADEQUATE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS PSBL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SUPPORT FOR MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD
PCPN DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINTS
SEEM MINOR. TEMPERATURES WILL START SLIDING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS AND A COLD RAIN
SUNDAY. TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH INTO THE
QUARTER INCH TO THREE QUARTER INCH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

PCPN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN AT THIS POINT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
APPEARS MINOR AT BEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA.
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF PCPN.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS TO START OUT COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN
THE 50S...BUT MODERATING TO THE 60S BY THURSDAY. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS FOR SHOWERS BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT. SO CONFIDENCE
FALLS TO ONLY AVERAGE BY DAYS 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 6
KNOTS INITIALLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 11-12
KNOTS BY 14-15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 18 KNOTS. GUST
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12/00Z. WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD BRING A SPRINKLE TO KLNK 07-09Z IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD