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000
FXUS63 KOAX 202304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED
AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL
JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL
MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC
DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL
RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A
CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT
ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING AROUND 105.

HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS
OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY
WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL
CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN THEN WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A
COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA.

MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY
POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...STRATUS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD AGAIN FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AS PER LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT WARMER TODAY
WHICH COULD KEEP LOWS TONIGHT A BIT WARMER THUS KEEPING SFC-DWPT
SPREADS A BIT LARGER. THIS IN TURN COULD LIMIT STRATUS COVERAGE.
THUS DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF JUST A SCT MENTION
TO LOW CLOUDS AROUND AND A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK