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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191712
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Forecast concerns in the short term will be sprinkles and clouds
this morning...winds and temperatures this afternoon...potential
for thunderstorms Tuesday-Wednesday night and severe weather
threat Wednesday and Wednesday night.

At 00Z...there was a strong 80-120kt jet aloft with an elongated
area of h5 vorticity in the northwest flow aloft and h7 moisture
resulting in a showers and sprinkles. The 00Z sounding was dry
adiabatic with a sfc-3km lapse rate of 10 deg C/km. The latest
WSR-88d radar mosaic showed the enhanced radar echoes west of
Hebron. This was where the better h7/h85 moisture resided.

The shortwave in the flow over the Northern/Central Plains pushes
through this morning and included some sprinkles. Otherwise, once
again, temperature are forecast to mix out this afternoon with
the northwest flow aloft. Surface winds are not quite as strong as
yesterday, however still increasing from the northwest 10-20 mph
with some higher gusts. Highs Sunday were in the 70s and 80s and
should be a touch warmer...but still in the 80s.

A shortwave is forecast to rotate in the flow through the Great
Lakes Tuesday...meanwhile...there is a ridge and hot air over the
Southwest U.S. We are in between and depending on how far north
the pooling of h85 moisture occurs with the increasing southerly
h85 flow over KS/h7 moisture/waa over southern Nebraska...could
see some thunderstorms develop with heating. Some models raise the
pwat to 1.5 inches Tuesday afternoon. Convective temperatures are
forecast to be reached.  Added thunderstorm mention Tuesday
afternoon near the KS border. Highs Tuesday should be in the 80s
to lower 90s. Tuesday night...the warm front continues to lift
north and should see additional storms.

Wednesday the hot air builds in ahead of a cold front. Moisture
pools along the front (with 1.5 to 2 pwat) with an upper level
shortwave in the flow aloft Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
Wednesday afternoon as instability increased to 4000+ J/kg. The
storms should become more widespread with the h85 low level jet at
30 to 35 kts in the afternoon increasing to 50-60 kt Wednesday
night. Severe weather appears a good bet with all modes of severe
weather possible. Locally heavy rain will also be expected with
the thunderstorms.  Details in the frontal and surface low track
will need to be worked out as they vary from northern Iowa to
southern MN as being a little more enhanced related to the surface
low track. Highs Wednesday should be in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The shortwave pushes through, however the front hangs up over the
forecast area Thursday. This will allow thunderstorm chances to
linger Thursday and Thursday night for parts of the area. Cooler
weather with a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday. Highs in the 70s and 80s, with mostly 70s for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning with scattered
afternoon clouds near FL050 and northwest winds near 15kt both
diminishing this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Dergan