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000
FXUS63 KOAX 160921
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
421 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES THRU THE NEAR TERM
PDS LOOK RATHER SMALL WITH FOCUS MORE OR LESS FOUND NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

FIRST ROUND COMES THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN CWA IN RELATION TO A SPUNKY
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. STOUT LYR DIFFERENTIAL
DIVG/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...BUT
FORCING WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
DYNAMIC FORCING THOUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
NORTH.

MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SD THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THRU
THE DAY AS IT MIGRATES EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAGS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFSLAMP METEOGRAMS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING
THRU THE OMA METRO DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS. BRUNT OF STRONG CAA
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

THUR NIGHT/FRI...PCPN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND FOCUSED OVER THE
NRN CWA WHERE MODERATE QG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. MAY EVEN
SEE MIX OF RA/SN PER BUFKIT. GIVEN WEAK MOISTURE...SMALL POPS
STILL BEST FIT FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 12 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS MENTIONED AT ALL THREE SITES AS PROFILERS
AND PROGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60KTS THROUGH 14Z.
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 18 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COMBINATION SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ045-051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
FIRE WEATHER...DEE