254
FXUS63 KOAX 240506
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather pattern this week with an extended period of
  rainfall chances. Potential for flooding and some severe
  weather.

- Temperatures will fluctuate between the 80s and 90s, trending
  more toward 90s late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This afternoon:

A frontal boundary is sagging southeast across eastern Nebraska
this afternoon, leading to scattered showers behind the front
and thunderstorm development over the next few hours on the warm
side of the front over southeast Nebraska. Temperatures, as
expected, are a bit cooler with highs forecast in the low-to-mid
80s north of the front, while areas to the south could see highs
approach 90 degrees this afternoon.

Tonight - Tuesday:

As far as storm activity this evening, CAMs show storms really
kicking off around 3-4 PM along the frontal boundary. CAMs show
the surface boundary keeping storms south of the best
environmental shear, likely limiting potential for large hail
and tornadoes. We could see a stronger storm or two develop this
afternoon produce some damaging winds up to 60 mph, though.
Primary hazard expected with the storms through the overnight
hours will be the potential for very heavy rain and flash
flooding.

Precipitable water values along and south of the frontal
boundary will be exceptionally high overnight tonight,
approaching 2 inches, which is well above the 90th percentile
for this date of 1.54 inches, and approaching the daily max ever
of 2.38. This means we should have highly-efficient rain-
producing storms overnight. The HREF shows potential for
localized amounts of 4+ inches of rain across areas along and
south of a line from Beatrice to Nebraska City. Areas north of
this boundary are certainly not out of the woods, though, as
amounts of 1-3 inches are very possible, with flash flooding
possible in more developed/susceptible areas.

Scattered showers will continue into Tuesday as the frontal
boundary buckles back northward caused by another subtle
shortwave in the southwesterly flow. This becomes the story for
the rest of the work-week as we remain under a southwesterly
flow regime across the Northern Plains with a stubborn ridge
centered across the Appalachians. Cloud cover and showers should
help to keep us cooler on Tuesday despite the northward movement
of the frontal boundary, with highs mainly in the upper 80s
across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, and upper-70s to
low 80s for northeast Nebraska north of the frontal boundary.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Amplification of the trough over the western U.S. results in
the strengthening of the downstream ridge. As our next shortwave
approaches, the downstream ridge starts to weaken. As this
occurs, we see the surface frontal boundary lift north Tuesday
into Tuesday night, lingering across along the Nebraska/South
Dakota state line into Wednesday.

Thunderstorm activity will ramp up along and north of the
frontal boundary lifting north Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night. With the low-level jet orienting itself perpendicular to
the frontal boundary, and PWAT values remaining above the 90th
percentile, these storms will again be efficient rain-producers,
potentially training along the frontal boundary with best
potential for flash flooding being overnight for northeast
Nebraska.

As we continue to see the frontal boundary stay north through
the day on Wednesday, rain chances will drop off across most of
our area through the day, away from the South Dakota state line.
Clearing skies will allow temperatures on Wednesday to warm back
up into the 90s with dew points around 70 making it feel like
close to 100 degrees.

Thursday and Beyond:

The aforementioned shortwave brings a cool-front through on
Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible as this
front moves through along the boundary, especially Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Friday into the weekend we`ll see the trough over the western
CONUS shift northeast into the Northern Plains, lifting the
active boundary northward into the Dakotas and southern
Minnesota. This could mean a break in more widespread rain
potential going into the weekend, though temperatures will again
get into the low-to-mid 90s. We`ll see the front drop back south
Saturday night into Sunday as the trough sinks back southward
over the Great Lakes, bringing back storm chances through early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

MVFR ceilings have settled across most of the western half of
the area tonight. KOMA and KOFK are forecast to slip into IFR
category by 09Z Tuesday morning. Have removed IFR forecast for
Lincoln, but that certainly isn`t set in stone. Scattered
showers will be few but regular over the next 12 hours or so
before increasing in number on Tuesday afternoon. Some storms
will be strong to severe.

Expect generally light east to southeast winds through the TAF
period outside of thunderstorm winds. In fact, 20 knot winds are
going to be tough to find through 20,000 feet.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Nicolaisen