Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211733 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Temperatures through the weekend will be the main focus of this forecast as our rather tranquil weather pattern continues. Mid level trough was progressing into the Ohio Valley region this morning, with northwest flow in its wake across the middle of the country. Farther west, upper ridging was noted over southern California and Arizona. This main ridge axis is forecast to slide east toward the lee of the Rockies by late Sunday. This pattern keeps our area under zonal or weak ridging pattern through the weekend. A couple of systems riding the northern periphery of the ridge are expected to track along the US/Canadian border, one today and one Saturday. Both will push trailing weak cold fronts south into Nebraska and Iowa Friday night and Saturday night. Effects of first front will be short-lived as flow returns to southerly early Saturday and 850 temperatures rebound quickly, while second boundary plunges farther south maintaining cool advection across our area all day Sunday. For today, south winds will kick up later this morning and 850 temps gain about 4C by this afternoon. However mid and high cloudiness associated with northern wave will limit insolation for a time into the afternoon. Still should see highs into the 60s most areas with the coolest readings potentially holding in the 50s in western Iowa. We gain another 5C or so at 850 Saturday afternoon with more sunshine expected, so have highs in the 70s with light south winds. Winds will become north or northwest early Sunday with continued cool advection dropping 850 temperatures 4C between 12Z and 00Z. However we should see full sun, so have highs a only a few degrees cooler than Saturday, ranging from the mid 60s north to low 70s south. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Mid level flow pattern will begin the longer term period with ridge axis overhead, but will quickly shift east as a potent shortwave ejects into the Plains. Strong warm advection pattern sets up late Monday night, suggesting elevated convection is possible from northeast Nebraska and north. Better chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms come during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night as shortwave and attendant surface low roll through eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. 00Z GFS indicates MLCAPE approaching 1000 j/kg in southeast Nebraska Tuesday afternoon with precipitable water values approaching 200 percent of normal. Will maintain our categorical precip chances then. Trough axis moves east of western Iowa early Wednesday with zonal or slightly northwest flow through Thursday offering little in the way of additional precip potential. Temperatures through the extended period should remain near or slightly above normal, generally in the 60s and a few lower 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with a few high clouds and southerly surface winds.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dergan LONG TERM...Dergan AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.