Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 100522 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1122 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude cyclonic flow east of the Rockies with an upstream short-wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. This short-wave trough will move onshore tonight and eventually reach the northern Plains by Sunday. In the low levels, mesoanalysis placed a cyclone along the Cheyenne Ridge with this feature eventually developing south through the central High Plains, along a southward-moving cold front. Mosaic radar data as of 21z indicate a broken band of weak reflectivity across eastern NE into southwest IA with a recent report or flurries or light snow at Albion. A few flurries will remain possible into this evening, mainly across northeast NE within a corridor of modest isentropic upglide. Late tonight into Sunday, low-level warm advection and isentropic ascent (best seen on the 285-295K theta surfaces) will strengthen in response to the progression of the above-mentioned short-wave trough into the northern High Plains. A resulting band of snow will materialize and spread east across portions of the mid Missouri Valley before shifting east of the region by Sunday night. The best chance of accumulating snow will be across the far northern part of the forecast area where one to three inches are possible. On Sunday, amplification of the mid-level flow pattern will occur over the upper Mississippi Valley, which in turn will promote the deepening of a surface low to our southeast. Some light snow will be possible, mainly across the northeast part of the forecast area where forcing for ascent will be stronger. Farther south, a warm nose evident in forecast soundings in the 800-750-mb layer could contribute to mixed-phase precipitation across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA prior to ending. It appears that we will see a reprieve from the seasonably cold temperatures this weekend into Monday with afternoon readings warming into the 30s across our central and southern counties. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Another arctic air mass will overspread the mid Missouri Valley late Monday and will likely remain entrenched through the remainder of the week. This will result in much-below-normal temperatures with a chance for light snow during the middle to late part of the week. The 12z run of the ECMWF does suggest the potential for a more significant snowstorm next Friday, though this solution is not supported by the deterministic GFS or GEFS ensemble data.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Drier air has worked into the western parts of the forecast area and clouds will be variable for a while overnight at KLNK and KOFK before filling back in. Expect light snow to start at KOFK toward 11Z and then continue much of the morning. Did also mention some visibility restriction to 4 miles with light snow at KOMA. Band of precipitation may stay north of KLNK. Southeast winds will increase a little by mid morning Saturday.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Miller

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