Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 050447 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE SUBTLE WAVE THAT BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE NEXT WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHEAST SD. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...IT COULD LINGER SATURDAY MORNING THEN GO THROUGH A DIURNAL CYCLE AND END BEFORE NOON. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HOT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THIS WILL CREATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 95 TO 100 IN SOME SPOTS. WHILE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS DOING ANY PRE HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES...ITS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT...JUST BE SURE TO REMAIN WELL HYDRATED WITH LOTS OF WATER AND TAKE IT EASY. THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THAT COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES REMAIN SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I80 AS THE SUBTLE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET. COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY MOSTLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY MORNING...THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT TYPICAL DIURNAL BEHAVIOR AND WEAKEN OR DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND SHEAR COULD RANGE 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS...AND INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...STRONGER STORMS SEEM LIKELY...AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING WHEN POPS INTO THE 60/70 PERCENT RANGE. MOST PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO KS/MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT WAVE AND MOISTURE RETURN OVERRUNS THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SURFACE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS AGAIN AT 60/70 PERCENT SOUTH OF I80. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGHS MID WEEK ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. KOFK SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE...SO DID MENTION A MID LEVEL CEILING THERE LATER TONIGHT. LLWS WILL DECREASE MID TO LATE MORNING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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