Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 071102 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS INUNDATED MOST OF SRN IA/SERN NEB/ERN KS BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL OK. SMOKE DISPERSION GUIDANCE PER LATEST NAM-4KM ADVERTISE THE VENTILATION RATE WILL REMAIN POOR THRU THIS MORNING THEN FAIR BY THIS AFTN WITH TRANSPORT WINDS MAKING A GRADUAL TURN FROM N TO NE AROUND 15KT. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT SMOKE OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE SRN CWA UNTIL MIXING LYR HGTS INCREASE THIS AFTN. REGARDING PCPN...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THE BULK OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE FOUND S/SE OF THE CWA OVER ERN KS AND MO. PCPN CHANCES THOUGH WILL FINALLY RETURN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN COMBINATION OF STOUT 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADVECTION WORK IN TANDEM INDUCING ACTIVITY THE CWA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AS WELL WITH PWS VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2". HOWEVER...WITH MAXCAPE VALUES SUGGESTING INSTABILIY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...ANY TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOW BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN MODELS PROG THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE AROUND THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ECM/GFS CONSISTENT LAST COUPE RUNS SHOWING LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...BUT ONLY TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN POPS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 MVFR FOG AND HAZE SHOULD ONLY AFFECT TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN

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