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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171653
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

System that brought precipitation to our area continues to lift
off to the northeast. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will
be building over the area this afternoon, and winds should
decrease toward late afternoon. Southerly winds should develop as
that high moves east this evening. Next shortwave trough of
concern was moving toward the western Dakotas late this morning,
and that should push into the area from the west/northwest tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Closed upper low over southwest Minnesota at 07Z will track
northeast toward the upper Great Lakes today with weak short wave
ridging moving into the region on the backside of the system.
This will provide the area with a short period of dry weather and
seasonal temperatures before the next upper wave comes into the
region tonight.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this
next system tonight, with the main threat of storms for the area
from late tonight into Friday morning. This next round of storms
is expected to be more progressive with less extensive
precipitable water forecast over the area, which should limit
widespread heavy rain compared to the previous Tue/Wed system.

Friday afternoon should see clearing conditions spread into the
area as another round of short wave ridging moves in behind the
departing trough. Dry weather will then continue for Friday night
through the day Saturday with temperatures warming a bit during
that time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Pattern remains unsettled through much of the period with upper
flow becoming more amplified by Wednesday. At this time it looks
like the area will be under the influence of eastern trough by
then with a trend toward cooler temperatures.

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Generally look for VFR conditions through much of the period. Did
include a TEMPO group at all three locations later tonight or
Friday morning for MVFR visibilities with -SHRA. There is some
potential for TSRA, but at this point decided to leave out of the
TAFs until timing becomes more clear.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Miller

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office