Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 180907 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 407 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Single-digit wind chills for some during the morning commute and trip to school. - Very high fire danger over northeast Nebraska this afternoon, and from northeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa Tuesday afternoon. - Temperatures warm back into the 60s by Tuesday before trending cooler again. - A more active weather pattern develops later this week with precipitation chances from Thursday into the weekend.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Today: Surface high pressure situated over western parts of SD and NE early this morning will build south through the area today ahead of a front moving into the northern High Plains. IR satellite indicates a shield of stratocumulus clouds from southeast SD into portions of northeast NE and northwest IA. Those clouds are slowly moving south and could linger across portions of the area this morning before mixing out. A snowflake or two is even possible. Otherwise, the main story this morning is the cold wind chills, which will be in the single digits at many locations during the morning commute and trip to school. Clouds will diminish by this afternoon with temperatures warming into the 40s. The air mass will remain quite dry, leading to very high fire danger in northeast NE. However, winds will be relatively light, which will limit the fire-spread potential given ignition. Tuesday and Wednesday: The above-mentioned, northern High Plains front is forecast to move through the area Tuesday morning. Northwest, downsloping winds in the wake of the boundary will support warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s. The strongest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 mph are expected to develop from northeast NE into southwest IA Tuesday afternoon with very high fire danger forecast in those areas. Somewhat of a backdoor cold front is expected to push into the area on Wednesday with afternoon temperatures falling back into the 40s to low 50s. Thursday and Friday: The 18/00z global models suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will track through the northern Plains Thursday with an associated surface low advancing through the mid-MO Valley. Strengthening warm advection ahead of the midlevel wave and surface low will support a chance (20-30%) of light rain or a rain-snow mix Thursday from northeast NE into southwest IA. Additional rain is possible (20-40% PoPs) across most of the area Thursday night into Friday, along and behind a trailing cold front moving through the area. Some light snow could mix in across northeast NE; however, no accumulations are expected. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s ahead of the surface low and front on Thursday with readings falling into the 40s and 50s on Friday in the wake of the surface system. Saturday and Sunday: Latest ensemble mean solutions are in general agreement in suggesting that a midlevel trough will move into the western U.S. Saturday with that feature intensifying while progressing into the Rockies on Sunday. In the low levels, inspection of individual ensemble members suggests lee cyclone development over WY or CO Saturday with fairly tight clustering of EPS and GEFS surface low centers over eastern CO or western KS by Sunday. Despite some latitudinal variance, the general model consensus is for a surface boundary to extend from the CO low into the mid-MO Valley at that time. There`s still enough model variability in the specific details of the midlevel pattern evolution and location of the primary surface front, such that confidence in the temperature and precipitation type/timing forecasts is low. However, confidence in the occurrence of measurable precipitation is relatively high, and that is reflected in the 50-70% PoPs Saturday night and Sunday. A few thunderstorms will be possible during that timeframe, especially across central and south parts of the area. At present, the best potential for minor snow accumulations appears to be across northeast NE where the WPC is indicating a 10-30% chance of 2-2.5" between 7 AM Sunday and 7 AM Monday. Those with travel plans late this weekend into early next week should keep an eye on the forecast going forward.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Winds have diminished this evening with speeds around or just under 10 kts out of the northwest, with a few low clouds hanging around from FL035 to FL045. Winds are expected to turn southwesterly very slowly over the course of the next 18 hours, with the introduction of wind gusts late tomorrow evening to around 20 kts. One sticking point for the overnight forecast will be the ability for another bank of shallow clouds to develop from FL030 to FL040, with a flurry or two potentially getting squeezed out. If marginally MVFR conditions do work their way down into the area, here are the most likely times for those restrictions based on the most aggressive guidance (since most models show nothing): KOFK - 10 to 13z KOMA - 11 to 16z KLNK - 12 to 16z && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Petersen

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