Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 171653 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1153 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 System that brought precipitation to our area continues to lift off to the northeast. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will be building over the area this afternoon, and winds should decrease toward late afternoon. Southerly winds should develop as that high moves east this evening. Next shortwave trough of concern was moving toward the western Dakotas late this morning, and that should push into the area from the west/northwest tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Closed upper low over southwest Minnesota at 07Z will track northeast toward the upper Great Lakes today with weak short wave ridging moving into the region on the backside of the system. This will provide the area with a short period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures before the next upper wave comes into the region tonight. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this next system tonight, with the main threat of storms for the area from late tonight into Friday morning. This next round of storms is expected to be more progressive with less extensive precipitable water forecast over the area, which should limit widespread heavy rain compared to the previous Tue/Wed system. Friday afternoon should see clearing conditions spread into the area as another round of short wave ridging moves in behind the departing trough. Dry weather will then continue for Friday night through the day Saturday with temperatures warming a bit during that time. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Pattern remains unsettled through much of the period with upper flow becoming more amplified by Wednesday. At this time it looks like the area will be under the influence of eastern trough by then with a trend toward cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Generally look for VFR conditions through much of the period. Did include a TEMPO group at all three locations later tonight or Friday morning for MVFR visibilities with -SHRA. There is some potential for TSRA, but at this point decided to leave out of the TAFs until timing becomes more clear.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Miller

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