Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150923 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 423 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 MODELS IN AGREEMENT THIS MORNING MEAN TROF WITH PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING THRU. IN ADDITION TO PCPN CHANCES...ALTERING AIR MASSES WILL RESULT IN A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPS DURING THE NEAR TERM PDS. MODERATING TEMPS BEGIN TODAY AS CNTRL PLAINS FALLS UNDER INFLUENCE OF WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED OVER ERN MT. MET/MAV ARE CLOSE GIVING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THOUGH THAT LOW/MID 60S MAY BE REALIZED GIVEN DEEP LYR MIXING. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE HIGHS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING. TONIGHT AND WED... SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES VIA DPVA ASSOC WITH APPROACH OF LOW AMPLITUDE PAC NW WAVE COUPLED WITH STOUT MID LVL WAA. IT APPEARS THAT FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN ACTIVITY THOUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO TAP. HOWEVER CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME ACTIVITY REACHING THE NRN CWA PERIPHERY...THUS SMALL POPS SEEM REASONABLE. IN THE MEANTIME...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS WED/THURSDAY. METEOGRAMS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE OMA METRO LATE WED AFTN. BRUNT OF STRONG CAA ARRIVES THEN ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S BY AFTN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 THUR AFTN/FRI...APPEARS MODERATE QG FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE VIA LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT LEAVING POSSIBILITY OPEN FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THOUGH...THUS SMALL POPS BEST FIT. SIMILAR SITUATION THRU THE EXTENDED PDS WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL MORE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES. BEST CHANCE FOR NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL COME SAT-SUN ALONG A SFC BNDRY MEANDERING OVER THE REGION. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REDUCE GOING POPS. OTHERWISE...A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHY MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FL080-100. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AFTER 18Z FROM THE SOUTH. LLWS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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