Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 221712 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER AT 07Z WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO RAP MODEL. SINCE MOS HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVERDUE THE MOISTURE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND ALLBLEND. THIS GIVES RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR RFW THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN ON ADDRESSING VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER INDEX IN HWO FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE INTO THE AREA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HELPS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT HANG AROUND IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN CLEAR RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE COMES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS KANSAS. SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE GFS CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM SOONER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY. DID NOT MENTION -TSRA IN TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. DECIDED TO ADD IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT BELOW 2000 FEET INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE OR MORE.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...MILLER

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