Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 202338 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 638 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Cold front at 18z had pushed just south of the area, and was defined very well by a wind shift and an associated cloud street field from northeast KS through northeast IA. ESRL HRRR/Operational HRRR/RAP all keep convection just east and southeast of the forecast area initially this evening, but develop some additional convection along the stalled boundary by 06z which could clip extreme southeast NE and southwest IA overnight. The stalled front then begins to lift back as a warm front by daybreak Thursday. This could result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours early Thursday, but then the threat diminishes as the front essentially washes out and diurnal effects of low level jet are diminished. This sets us up for a hot, humid and breezy afternoon with daytime highs climbing back into the mid 80s to lower 90s across the region, and dewpoints again back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Quite warm and muggy conditions persist Thursday night with lows only in the lower to mid 70s. The GFS wants to develop convection on the nose of a 40-50 knot low level jet, as does the SREF, but the Nam, ECMWF, and High-res ARW/NMM models all remain dry. Friday is another hot, humid, and windy day. Afternoon highs again reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, dewpoints again near 70, and southerly winds again in the 20-30 mph range. A cold front will be moving into extreme northeast NE by late Friday afternoon, in response to a pretty sharp trough to our west. This will result in a chance of thunderstorms in that area, which will have an associated severe weather risk into Friday night. The cold front makes slow progress southward into the area on Saturday, although models differ slightly on how far south to take it. Best chance for precip Saturday will be north of I80, with remainder of the area warm and dry with highs again in the upper 80s ahead of the front. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 High 60-80% pops along/north of the front are in the forecast through the weekend, with precip eventually working into remainder of the area Sunday night into Monday, and finally east of the area by Tuesday evening. Northwest half of the forecast area could see locally heavy rainfall and would not be surprised to see up to a couple of inches over a 48 hour period for portions of central through northeast NE. Thus not expecting any widespread flooding, but a soggy weekend nonetheless for some locations. Temps progressively get lower Sunday through Tuesday. Dry conditions then for Wednesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with light southeast surface winds as surface high pressure skirts the region to our north.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Kern

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