Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 240947 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 347 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014 LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS THE CLOUD FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTREMELY SLOW MOVING CLEARING LINE FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THICK CLOUD COVER IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME THINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL NOT LIKELY SEE SUN TODAY BUT THAT WILL CHANGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THIS... WAA WILL BE UNDERWAY OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH LEE SIDE SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY UNTIL FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z FR. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR PCPN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 06Z FRIDAY AND WE ALREADY HAD POPS TO COVER THIS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SENDING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND HAVE NOT FOLLOWED. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN AS THE THE COLD AIR DROPS DOWN JUST AT THE ONSET OF PCPN. WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF A MIX INITIALLY FOR A FEW HOURS BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014 A SECONDARY WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO THE AREA TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LITTLE CLIPPER AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF. ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET. ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES VERY BROAD AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE GIVES THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT AT SNOW ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME COLDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE. THE SURGE CONTINUES AND SEEMS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BULLSEYE OF -24 TO -26C 850MB TEMPS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON AT EASTERN AFTERNOON TAF SITES BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO DRY LOW LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST. KLNK AND KOMA COULD SEE A BRIEF IFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH ABOUT 10Z WHEN RAIN OR SNOW MOVES OVER THOSE SITES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DERGAN

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