Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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054 FXUS63 KOAX 060344 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1044 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE CONUS TODAY...WITH CLOSED LOWS SPINNING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND ONTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. IN THE MIDDLE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS PATTERN WILL BREAKDOWN THIS WEEKEND AS DEEP LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY DROPS SOUTH AND KICKS CAROLINA LOW INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT WILL ALSO SQUASH RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...ALLOWING WESTERN LOW TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. TO END THE WORK WEEK...RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO A CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOTS OF SUNSHINE...RISING HEIGHTS...850 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALL POINT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. BEGINNING OF RIDGE BREAKDOWN ENSUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON BAY LOW DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WEAK FORCING TRAILS THIS FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS COULD POP CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THOUGH CHANCES LOOK SLIM...WE ALREADY HAVE THIS MENTIONED AND CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. A SIMILAR SITUATION PRESENTS ITSELF SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH WEAK FORCING NOTED BEHIND FRONT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD AGAIN POP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...BUT GREATER FOCUS WILL BE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF EJECTING SOUTHWESTERN LOW WILL RESIDE. FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURES DECREASE TO OUR WEST. THETA-E RETURNING ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE SHOULD LIE SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOCUS AGAIN TURNS TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THAT AREA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY INDUCE STRONG UPGLIDE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD FIRE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. BULK 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 35KT AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG WILL BE SPREADING INTO THAT AREA BEFORE 00Z. WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES AT THAT TIME...BUT EVEN BETTER SUPPORT WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 OUR BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH THETA-E AIR IS LIFTED OVER FRONTAL ZONE BY 40KT LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. THAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHEN LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. 40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO WARM FRONT AT 18Z AS PER GFS...WITH 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO MONDAY COULD BE A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING DAY. UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE SPORADIC RAIN CHANCES IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S OR LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MID CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN VFR.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...KERN

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