Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 040603 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1203 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASING LIFT AND OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING WITH CIGS AROUND 10KFT AT ALBION AND AROUND 4K FEET AT LEXINGTON. FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THEDFORD AND SNOW STICKING IN LINCOLN COUNTY. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO FLURRIES FOR WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BUT WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS SOME LIGHT PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FEATURES OF CONCERN FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS AT 12Z THIS MORNING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB STRONG WINDS EXTENDED FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UP INTO NEBRASKA (145 KNOT MAX OVER KOAX) AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. A BROAD AREA OF 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED FROM CANADA DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO... WITH A MAX OF AROUND 180 METERS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. AT 850 MB...A POCKET OF COLD AIR WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BUT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM AROUND COLUMBUS SOUTH TO SEWARD/LINCOLN/FAIRBURY/BEATRICE/PAWNEE CITY. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IS TO THE SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR AREA. WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY AND HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S. FAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS PERIOD. INITIALLY A RIDGE WILL BE OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR THE DATE LINE...A MODERATELY STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR 38N/150W...A RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FLOW EVEN STARTS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR A WARMER PATTERN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. FOR NOW... IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT USUALLY THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS TURN WET AT SOME POINT. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES MAY APPROACH OR MAKE IT TO KOFK OR KOMA. FOR NOW MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW AT KLNK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO MAKE IT TO KLNK. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 12KTS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FLURRIES MAY ATTEND THIS SYSTEM. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15G25KT BETWEEN 15-18Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM..ZAPOTOCNY

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