Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 221710 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1 OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH KOFK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF NORTH WINDS AOA 12 KT AT ALL 3 SITES BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z ON WED. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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