Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181732 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE OUTER EDGES. CLOSE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR THIS. WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 MAIN AVN ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING. CURRENT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING BOTH KOFK/KOMA DROPPING INTO IFR TERRITORY SOMETIME BTWN 10Z-12Z...AND KLNK TO MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERALL THOUGH...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED LATELY WITH MODEL TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS. HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISREGARD WORSENING FLIGHT CAT...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS/MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE

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