Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 011127 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT. FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET. MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA. TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED. WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...MILLER

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