Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 130355 AAA AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER...BUT TSTMS FINALLY DID DEVELOP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL. HRRR MODEL HAD BEEN DOING A FAIRLY DECENT JOB HANDLING THAT. STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. ADDED SOME MENTION OF FOG NRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. PATCH OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SWD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM RE- DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER. THIS MORNING/S OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.71 IN PWAT AND A WARM CLOUD LAYER OF OVER 10K FT. CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. H7 MOISTURE OF 6DEG C WAS POOLED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT WERE 2 TO 3 DEG C LOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE NAM FRIDAY. WARM H7 TEMPERATURES +10C COVERED MUCH OF SCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. H85 DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO POOLED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH 14-16DEG C. AT MIDDAY...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS NEAR I80. IN BETWEEN...IT WAS CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...H5 SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH AND STRENGTHEN FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z. AT 20Z...THE SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE METRO AREA AND WAS NEAR LNK. CAN SEE THE FRONT ON THE WSR-88D WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE HRRR/RAP DO HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF THE METRO AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. HAVE ONLY ISO/SCT COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 03Z...THEN INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST...BUT MAY MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR. SEEMS LIKE HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE PWATS AVAILABLE AND HIGH EFFICIENCY. H85 CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAKER IN OUR AREA AND STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA...SO THIS MAY TEMPER SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECASTS DO MENTION SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER AFTERNOON UPDATE SHRUNK THE AREA FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THOUGH AND NOW IS JUST CLIPPING OUR AREA. THE MOISTURE DOES NOT CLEAR OUT CLEANLY AND THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN HIGHS IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND MAY NEED TO ADD POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD... WITH BEST TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER

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