Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 300853 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SD WAS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEB IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN UT WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US...WITH THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 110KT WAS NOSING OUT OF SASK/MB INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT 850MB...8C+ DEWPOINTS WERE FAIRLY ABUNDANT ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH NOTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OF 30-35C ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN MT/SOUTHERN ID. SURFACE HIGH AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN OK...WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH KS/NEB. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE TENDED TO INDICATE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SD DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING NORTHEAST NEB...THE LINE HAS CONTINUED TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PRECIP MENTION IN THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHORTWAVE DESCENDING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS IT WORKS ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. HAVE SPED ITS EXIT SOMEWHAT...AS SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW...GENERATING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM NEAR NORTHEAST NEB/NORTHWEST IA. HAVE ADDED AN AFTERNOON PRECIP MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB/IA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY AS LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH COOL EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES APPEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN HAZE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z AS THICK SMOKE LAYER HANGS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN NEBRASKA BORDER INTO WESTERN IOWA AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...FOBERT

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