Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280302 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1002 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...KG LONG TERM...KG AVIATION...KERN

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