Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 042324 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 624 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z HAD THE FOLLOWING FEATURES OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB...A JET MAX OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. AT 500 MB...THE PATTERN WAS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A TROUGH ALONG 130 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...A RIDGE ALONG 110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. 850 MB MOISTURE WAS VERY LIMITED EXCEPT IN PARTS OF MEXICO AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL DIG WITH TIME...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MID DAY FRIDAY. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN...DUE TO THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A AXIS OF 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 6-12 DEGREES CELSIUS (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCES LOOK AT LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH MAINLY 75 TO 80...THEN 83 TO 87 ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIRMASS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS GENERALLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS THE SLOWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING...BUT NOT SO MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NEVERTHELESS...RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE TAF SITES THIS CYCLE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN

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