Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211115 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 615 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014 SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ENVIRONMENT IS PRIME FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALREADY BLOSSOMED OVER THE REGION ALONG A SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN KS. ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH PWS APPROACHING 2"/MUCAPES PEAKING AROUND 3000 J/KG. AND WITH HEALTHY LLVL MOISTURE FEED...IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE STAGNANT HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES...THUS MAKING PCPN FCST SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL THOUGH...NOCTURNAL TSTMS OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HVY PCPN OVER THE NRN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS CASE...NAM/GFS/ECM/CMC ALL HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS ADVERTISING GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER NERN NEB. AND GIVEN THIS...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL LEVEL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014 TEMP FCST HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS NOW THE GFS AND ECM ARE DIVERGING ON HOW TO HANDLE ANTICIPATED INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR MASS NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS STILL ON TRACK BRINGING THE COOLER AIR MASS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF. HOWEVER...THE ECM HAS TAKEN A SHARP TURN NOW AND ADVERTISES NEAR ZONAL FLOW THUS INHIBITING ANY SORT OF SOUTH BOUND COOL AIR ADV. OBVIOUSLY NOT REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING ANY DRAMATIC TEMP CHANGES UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. NOTE...GOING POPS ARE ASSUMING COOLER GFS SOLUTION WILL BE REALIZED WITH PCPN ACTIVITY FOCUSED AROUND COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014 ALTHOUGH BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING HAD WEAKENED...A RISK OF THUNDER REMAINED...MAINLY AT KLNK BUT ALSO POSSIBLY KOMA. WITH 12Z FORECAST FELT RISK WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TSTMS AT KLNK. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BULK OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT NEAR A WEAK FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SW TO NE THRU ERN NEBR. AT THIS TIME FELT ALL TAF SITES HAD A NEARLY EQUAL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SO A PROB30 WAS CARRIED AT EACH.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...CHERMOK

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