Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 291826 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 126 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW CENTER IN COLORADO LATER TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH/LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA INITIALLY...THEN SPREAD TOWARD OUR AREA AS THAT BOUNDARY IS KICKED NORTHWARD. SO INITIALLY ONLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN HERE. AND PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN RAIN CHANCES OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BY TONIGHT...850 FLOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER WITH IMPLIED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES MARKEDLY AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM NEAR 0.6 TO OVER AN INCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS OCCURRENCE...AND GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT...COULD SEE RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST AREA OF THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING WHERE HIGH CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE. TO THE SOUTH...DRY AIR WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY WHERE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREAD THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY A CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES. WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 60. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WILL REFLECT MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BEFORE THAT PATTERN DEVELOPS...THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES WITH MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT COULD BRING US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH IN POPPING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY. GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AND SPORADIC NATURE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S BEGINNING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOOK FOR DETETIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH/DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z...AND WILL NEED TO ASSESS THUNDER POTENTIAL AT KLNK AND KOMA. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10KTS TO 20KTS AND GUSTY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT KLNK AND KOMA AT 35 TO 45KTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.