Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 282113 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 313 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 PER LARGE SCALE FLOW...MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF INITIALLY ACROSS THE CONUS BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OF POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST COAST. BY WED MORNING...MODELS PROG SRN PORTION OF TROF EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE SWRN STATES. ALL THIS LEADING TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS ND/MN...ALONG WITH SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS INDUCING SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER INVOF LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE 285K ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND COND PRES DEF WILL BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...STOUT UPPER SUPPORT VIA DPVA WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. AT THIS POINT EXPECT SNOW ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD THRU TONIGHT THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE COMING TO A CLOSE THEN MON EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CAA/SUBSIDENCE. WEAK MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW GOING FCST WITH 2 INCHES NORTH AND AN INCH SOUTH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CAA PUSHES IN MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES ON THURSDAY WILL MIGRATE INTO ERN TX FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON EXPECTED TRACK. THE ECM IS CONTINUING DELAY LIFTING THE UPPER LOW UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT LIFTS IT OUT OF OK THEN INTO THE TN/OH VLY ON SUNDAY...LEAVING THE CWA DRY. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE CMC...LIFTS THE UPPER LOW INTO ERN KS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING....THEN INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER TO FAVOR COMBINATION OF GFS/CMC WITH MAINTAINING SMALL SNOW POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING MAX TEMP FCST LOOKING ON TRACK WITH VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING...HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS. LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KOFK FIRST THEN KOMA/LNK. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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