Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 260805 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 305 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC. WEAK 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB. WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB FLOW. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS. AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER IN ITS WAKE. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND. ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE ON THE MAX TEMPS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD. POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. ECMWF IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...FOBERT

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