Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 041745 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT AND 2000 J/KG INSTABILITY AXIS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. UPWARD MOTION WAS BEING ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF AN 80+KT JETSTREAK AT 300MB. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS ALSO IN PLACE WITH PWATS UP TO 1.7 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS SLOWLY TRAIN THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS OVER KANSAS WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED...AS BULK SHEAR WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 TO 40KTS AND CONTINUED COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL HINDER INSTABILITY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP REMAINS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME CU IN AREAS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SHRA WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS EVNG AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER SW NEB AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT VARIOUS TIMES AT ALL 3 SITES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY WITH SHOWERS...BUT ALSO WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ALL 3 SITES AFTER 08-09Z INTO THE MRNG ON WED AFTER THE SHOWERS END. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KG LONG TERM...KG AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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