Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 231641 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1141 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE MORNING PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING HAD AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE RH WAS H7 OR ABOVE. THE 15Z SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND KEARNEY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MUCH HIGHER 50S AND 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMING NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING WAS WITH THE FIRST AREA OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE...A SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS AFTERNOON...THE H85 JET WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH THE 50KT H85 MAX OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER BY 21Z. THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE. THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TREND AND THE TREND THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 23Z AND THIS WOULD MOVE TOWARD THE ALBION...COLUMBUS AREAS WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SINCE MIDNIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEPICTED BY MODELS AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING TO MIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH REGION BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST. WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 THE WEST COAST TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IN LINGERING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WILL ADD VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED...DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS. TSRA POTENTIAL INCREASES AT KOFK AFTER 00Z AND AT KLNK AND KOMA DURING THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z.SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 26KTS SUSTAINED DECREASING AFTER 00Z... AND BECOMING NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASING BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-067- 068-090>093. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089. IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079- 080-090-091. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043.
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&& $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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