Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150516 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1116 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 Models suggest that isolated snow and rain showers will move through the area this evening, then push south of the area by midnight. These are tied to an upper trough and reinforcing surface trough across eastern SD that will settle southward tonight. No significant accumulation expected although HRRR and Highres ARW/NMM suggest a tenth of an inch if you happen to be underneath one of the showers. Much above normal temperatures return Friday into Saturday ahead of the next cold front which arrives Saturday afternoon. Highs in the 40s tomorrow, and in the mid 40s to upper 50s on Saturday, depending on which side of the front. Models do suggest that the trough currently across northwest Mexico eventually gets shunted north Saturday night into Sunday. the northern edge of this moisture could bring a wintry mix to extreme southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an elongated area of Pacific moisture to our north never gets a strong enough push into the area so no precip expected from that feature. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 Significant warming takes place Monday through Wednesday of next week ahead of a major pattern shift that hits our area on Thursday. Temps in the 40s Monday and Tuesday, but likely into the lower 50s for Wednesday. That`s the last warm day though, as an arctic front arrives on Thursday. This also could signal a shift to a wetter pattern into the Christmas Holiday period, but then again, that`s still 10 days away, and a lot can change. Fairly high confidence on the colder pattern, but lower confidence on any precip/snowfall patterns at this time. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Lower-end VFR ceilings will continue to exit the area, leaving just scattered cirrus later tonight through Thursday. Northwest winds will decrease to around 5-8kt overnight, becoming southwesterly at around 5-10kt during the day on Thursday.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.