Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211732 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Stalled surface boundary was located from southeast Iowa through north central Missouri into northeast Kansas at 07Z with scattered convection in its vicinity from southeast Iowa into north central Missouri. This boundary lifts north this morning as a warm front into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa then gradually washes out by afternoon with the summer-like conditions spreading across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon on gusty south winds. Main question for this morning will concern potential for convection as the warm unstable air spreads north. Short term CAM models show most of the convection remaining south and east of the area this morning and forecast soundings show a pretty good cap developing by the afternoon. Since some cells already showing on radar in far southeast corner will place slight PoPs across southern parts of the area early this morning and adjust if needed later this morning. Latest model runs continue trend of slowing the approach of the cold front into the area for the weekend. PoPs enter the forecast for northwest parts of the area Friday night then linger over that area through Saturday night before finally entering southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Sunday. This will keep much of the area hot and dry with the unseasonable heat and humidity around for most of the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Relief from the heat and humidity arrives by Monday as the deep upper trough over the western CONUS begins to overcome the blocking high in the east by lifting the northern segment of the trough into the upper midwest and eastern Canada through Wednesday. Best rain chances for the area will be Sunday night into Monday night as the surface cold front moves through the region. A period of cooler and drier weather follows behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging develops over the west coast area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd. However, significant LLWS is likely at all terminals later tonight.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...DEE

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