Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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782 FXUS63 KOAX 270454 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1154 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery revealed a de-amplifying mid- level trough from the upper Great Lakes to Ozark Plateau with an upstream ridge gradually building east through the Interior West. In the low levels, a surface low was located over east-central Iowa as of 18z with a trailing cold front which stretched through northwest Missouri into south-central Kansas. The western edge of a post-frontal stratus cloud deck should continue to erode from west-to-east across the area in concert with strengthening deep-layer subsidence. The decreasing clouds coupled with diminishing winds and a reasonably moist boundary layer will likely yield areas of fog tonight into Thursday morning. Thursday, the western U.S. ridge will begin to flatten as it edges east of the Rockies, hastening the deepening of a lee trough over the High Plains. As a result, strengthening southwest low-level flow will promote notably warmer temperatures, especially across our western counties where highs will reach the mid to upper 70s. Friday into Friday night, a polar-branch short-wave trough will temporarily dampen the north-central U.S. ridge and drive a cold front into the area. A seasonably warm air mass will persist ahead of the cold front with highs on Friday potentially reaching the lower 80s at some locations. For reference, record high temperatures for the 28th (Fri) are: Omaha - 84, Lincoln - 84, and Norfolk - 85. Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday with a low- probability chance of light rain over far northeast Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Mid-level heights will rebound over the northern Plains Saturday night through Sunday in advance of short-wave trough moving through the Interior West. By Monday, we begin to see differences in 12z medium-range guidance with respect to the timing and amplitude of this trough as it moves across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes. The GFS is more progressive and amplified with this features than the GEFS mean, the ECMWF and Canadian models. Accordingly, the GFS advances a surface cold front through the area much sooner than the other models. The preferred slower solution would suggest well-above- normal temperatures on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. We will see cooler temperatures with the passage of the cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday with a low-probability chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Light winds and low dewpoint spreads should favor areas of fog development tonight. The stratus is hanging close to KOMA, however should nudge east and this last hour had scattered at KOMAS. High clouds could hinder dense fog development, however KLNK appears to have the best chance for these lower visibilities. Included deteriorating conditions with MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions due to fog. KOFK should see winds increase toward morning and this should limit dense fog and did not mention vsbys lower than 1mi at this time. 25 to 35kt Low level winds will mix southwest winds to 10 to 20kts toward mid day. Included low level wind shear in the evening as 40+kt winds develop.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Zapotocny is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.