Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301720 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...MILLER

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