Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 300842 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CAB BORDER ENSUES THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000J/KG...AND DEEP LYR SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500MB AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH WITH UPPER SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...BOUSTEAD FIRE WEATHER...DEE

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