Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291725 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1125 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT 7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY. NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...KERN

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