Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 282311 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 611 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014 THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO. THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET- UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014 THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND IMPACT ON TAF SITES IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 08-12Z. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK. SHOULD BE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT KOMA 16-22Z TOMORROW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEWALD

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