Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301806 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 106 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016 A mid level shortwave trough currently over southwest Canada is forecast to close off as it slides southeast into the Northern Plains over the next 24 hours. In addition, a very weak vort lobe now over northeast Colorado will slide east/northeast throughout the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern Wyoming will strengthen over the Black Hills and slide east across South Dakota through the day. This will drag a trailing cold front into the CWA tonight into a moderately unstable airmass. Of note, the NAM looks too high with boundary layer moisture leading to overdone instability. To complicate matters, latest runs of CAM`s develop scattered convection through the morning, most likely in association with isentropic upglide in warm air advection pattern. Will carry a low confidence low pop through the morning and early afternoon hours to account for this. Additional forcing for ascent may come from weak shortwave moving across Nebraska today as well. In any event, strongest convection is expected along the cold front this evening and overnight. This activity should clear the southeastern counties by mid Tuesday morning. Portions of the area have been outlooked in a Slight Risk in SWODY1 and also WPC`s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Surface high pressure will build in behind this Tuesday and should persist over the region through mid to late week. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016 Dry conditions expected for the beginning of the long term with surface high pressure overhead. Region remains in weak, nearly zonal flow aloft with flow becoming more northwesterly by the weekend as ridging builds to our west. A cold front is progged to drop through the region late Friday night which will is our next chance for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016 Cold front moving into eastern Nebraska after 03Z will bring a period of scattered thunderstorms to TAF sites mainly between 06Z-18Z. VFR conditions expected outside of convection during the period with MVFR cigs and vsbys in convective areas.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Fobert

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