Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 022317 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 617 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 ATMOSPHERE AT 22Z WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESO PAGE WAS SHOWING 100 MB ML CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR TONIGHT...NAM12 BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS QUITE OVERDONE IN COMPARISON TO GFS20 SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST ECM/CMC LENDING SUPPORT SHOWING TO A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AND AT THIS POINT BELIEVE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS IS REASONABLE. ON MONDAY THE BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON EDGE OF CAP. STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MONDAY NIGHT WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA. SFC BNDRY ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NERN CWA TUESDAY WHERE AFTN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP PER THE NAM12/GFS20. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR POPS IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR WED...WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS IN LIGHT OF VIGOROUS LITTLE VORT MAX TRACKING THRU. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE CONUS. GFS/ECM/CMC QPF PLACEMENT APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. AND FOR NOW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GOING POP FCST. REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE IN STORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 WIND SHIFT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND SOME ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED AT OF 615 PM CDT. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KLNK TAF SITE THIS EVENING AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBY. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT ITS TOO HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING ON THAT FOR THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. LOOKS LIKE ANY CEILINGS WOULD BE ABOVE 5000 FEET OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...MILLER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.