Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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887 FXUS63 KOAX 140319 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 919 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 910 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 SOME WILD WEATHER IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERAL WIND GUSTS 45 TO 57 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA/SOUTHERN WI/IL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL BE FROM SD INTO MN/IA/IL THROUGH MORNING. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD GET CLIPPED BY THE LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE. A FEW EARLIER HRRR RUNS WERE HINTING AT POSSIBLE BANDING OF LIGHT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR DID NOT HAVE THIS. OUR OAX 00Z SOUNDING WAS SATURATED BETWEEN H800 AND H850MB...WITH DRY AIR BELOW THIS. LIFT INCREASES AND AROUND 09Z/10Z COULD SEE FLURRIES OR A DUSTING TOWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER/METRO AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. STEEPENING NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHORTWAVES ROLLING THROUGH THAT FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES. EACH OF THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PLAINS...BUT TRACKS OF BOTH LOOK TO FAVOR AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS. TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FROM THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S TO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS AS WING OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. EXPECT THAT AREA TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHEN LAYERED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS MAXIMIZED. THAT SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z...TAKING BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT STILL SHOULD TOTAL JUST AN INCH OR SO THERE. BEHIND SHORTWAVE...MODEST MIXING REGIME WILL SET UP AS NORTHWEST WINDS DOMINATE AND SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE SOME 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30S HOLDING IN THE NORTHEAST. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AS COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS WARMER IN THE SOUTH WHERE NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK FOCUSING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER A BETTER INITIAL MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTS A BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT WHEN WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN...WITH AREA SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAN TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MOST AREAS UNTIL FINER DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT. AND WITH THE POTENTIAL MIX EXPECTED...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE MINIMAL. NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND SHORTWAVE AGAIN OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION NOTED. THUS HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH 30S IN THE NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY MODEST RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GRADUALLY WARMING 850 TEMPERATURES FROM SUB ZERO TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE MID TEENS THURSDAY EVENING DEMONSTRATE THE MAGNITUDE OF BACKGROUND WARMING...SUGGESTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S LOOK ON TRACK BY THEN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP AS WELL. BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH/COOL FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AND ONLY BRIEF COOLING IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION AGAIN KICKS IN FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK 07-11Z AND 09-13Z AT KOMA. SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 12 KNOTS INITIALLY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 TO 28 KNOTS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT BOTH KOFK/KOMA MAYBE UP TO ONE HALF INCH. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEWALD

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