Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 020437 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1137 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL SD. SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA. MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING THE EVENING. THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DERGAN

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