Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211122 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 522 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 A surface cold front continues to dive through the area this morning ushering in strong cold-air advection due in part to a shortwave trough moving southeast across the Northern Plains. Steady to slowly falling temperatures are expected throughout the day with blustery northwest surface winds gusting to 25-35 mph. Light precipitation cannot be completely ruled out this morning behind the boundary, however point forecast soundings indicate a very dry layer below about 800mb and and so am doubtful if any precipitation will even make it to the ground. Will continue the mention of flurries/sprinkles through the first few hours of the forecast anyway but have serious doubts. Surface high pressure ridge axis settles over the region overnight. Have dropped lows into the mid to upper teens in most areas as winds become light. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 The remainder of the forecast continues to look dry with mainly wind and temperatures as the primary focus. Warming southerly winds will increase in return low-level flow by Wednesday while an amplified ridge builds over the western CONUS. This will send warm 850mb air in our direction Thursday night into Friday. By 18z Friday, a Northern Plains short-wave trough will send a cold front into the region allowing strong mixing to occur at max heating. At the same time, 850mb temps are progged around +18C in our south. Have continued to bump highs up a few degrees from the blended model output, especially in our south. Still thinking we could approach 70 in many locations. A brief cooldown is expected behind this front for Saturday into Sunday however return flow ushers warmer air into the area for early next week as the upper level ridge axis builds east. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Surface cold front has dropped through all three TAF sites this morning. A few sprinkles or flurries are possible for an hour this morning, but dry low-levels are preventing much precipitation from reaching the ground. Ceiling heights remain VFR and do expect them to remain as such. North-northwest surface winds will gust to around 30 kts this morning and afternoon before subsiding toward sunset. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Kern

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