Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 032033 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AS MOISTURE LOOKS EXTREMELY LIMITED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM BRINGING TSTM CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. MODELS PHASE THIS UPPER LOW IN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN LATER TODAY THEN THIN OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...MILLER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.