Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 022339 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...INDUCED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BY APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN STREAM. RESULTANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO MOISTENING OF LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED OR WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA. THIS WARMING COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL PROMOTE WET BULB COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING SOME AREAS. OVERALL...TREND OF LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAS CONTINUED GIVEN INFORMATION FROM THIS MORNING AND NOON MODEL RUNS. BULK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...CLIPPING PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE LOOK MOST PROBABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS WILL BE ACHIEVED BY LATE EVENING WHEN SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS IN OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL LEAD TO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS WE HEAD SOUTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 WHERE WARM LAYER OFF THE SURFACE RESIDES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TUESDAY MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RACING EAST BY LATE MORNING. MODEL AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A MAINLY DRIZZLE EVENT...PAINTING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ALONG INTERSTATE 80. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF IS FORECAST IN OUR FAR NORTH...TRANSLATING TO ABOUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. GIVEN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WHERE THAT OCCURS...HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINES HERE. ALSO...SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ONLY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A BRIEF TIME WHEN DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT. THUS WILL KEEP HEADLINES OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE AS WELL. IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SNOW THAN FORECAST IN THE NORTH...BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST WELL OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE EXPECTING JUST A COLDER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. AND A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEST AND SOUTH AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 20S AS NORTH WINDS CONTINUE. THEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. BUT A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S THEN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS RETURN FLOW FROM THURSDAY INTENSIFIES FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO APPROACH 50 IN MOST OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RULE THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT MAIN STORM TRACK IN FASTEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. WE COULD SEE GLANCING BLOWS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MAINLY WIND SHIFTS WILL RESULT KEEPING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 531 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL MOV INTO THE TAF SITES BY LATE EVNG /05-07Z/. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT LIFT WILL INCREASE BUT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SOME FZDZ AT KOMA/KLNK AFTER 08Z AND WILL CONT TO MENTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AT KOFK SATURATION MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA/IP LATE TONIGHT IN ADITIONL TO THE FZDZ. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOV THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON TUE MRNG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDS TO END THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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