Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250838 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 338 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Latest models are in pretty good agreement the nrn CWA will be most at risk for seeing heavy rainfall accumulation Tuesday night through Wednesday night where pcpn efficiency will be most prevalent. Low level moisture advection cranks up along the high plains later tonight...then spreads over the region early Tuesday. TSRA initiation Tuesday afternoon then should take place just west of the CWA before MCS development takes place in SD Tuesday evening where low level geostrophic wind max will meet up with the srn extent of 850mb frontogenetic zone. Both NAM12/GFS20 show impressive forcing with around 100 microbars of omega phasing with PWS 2". And with favorable depth of warm cloud layer above freezing level found over the nrn CWA...seems reasonable to expect generous rainfall accumulations into Wednesday morning. Confidence lower then Wednesday and Wednesday night as QPF fields...associated with passing shortwave...begin to show increasing variance with respect to timing and placement. Thus no major POP changes anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 POP confidence even lower the rest of next week any one of the minor impulses riding down the front of a low amplitude wrn conus ridge could aid in sparking off convection over the CWA. Token POPS are in place...thus no major changes planned. Otherwise relatively cool conditions for this time of the year continues. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 Look for VFR conditions through most of the period. Some fog is possible around sunrise...mainly at KOMA. Light and variable winds overnight will increase from the south or southeast on Monday. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Miller

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