Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 260537 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1137 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Temperatures will be the main forecast concern through Monday, then will deal with precipitation chance and precipitation type issues from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Snowcover will have some impact the next few days. A fast moving shortwave trough will move through the region overnight, producing some variable cloudiness. At the surface, south/southwest low level winds should help keep temperatures up a bit compared to last night. Lows are expected to range from teens north to 20s south. Dry weather should be the rule from Sunday through Sunday night. Relatively weak mixing on Sunday should limit highs to the mid and upper 30s in the northern part of the forecast area where snow is the deepest, but allow for highs in the 40s south. Low level southerly flow/isentropic upglide will increase Monday as low pressure strengthens over eastern Colorado. The 12Z runs of the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models all suggest some light rain will be possible Monday afternoon for parts of eastern Nebraska. Chances will increase a bit for Monday night as the surface low tracks quickly northeast toward southeast Nebraska. A colder air moves in, rain should mix with and change to snow. Thermal profiles suggest a that a mixture of rain/snow/sleet/freezing is possible, especially the northwest half of the forecast area. Will go with that for now and fine tune as we get closer to that time. Right now will have no mention of precipitation Tuesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 It appears that a stronger shortwave will move out across parts of our area Tuesday night, mainly southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Forcing, including mid level frontogenesis, appears adequate for some 0.10 to 0.25 precipitation amounts. Generally thought the QPF from the 12Z GFS was too high and that its amounts of over 0.10 were too far north. Favored more of a blend of the ECMWF and Canadian models. Initially very early Tuesday evening, most of the precipitation should be rain, but that will change to snow as the cold air deepens. Its a bit early, but some snow accumulation does seem possible Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday morning. The rest of the period from Wednesday afternoon into Saturday looks dry. High temperatures should slowly moderate from Wednesday through Friday, then jump up into the 50s and lower 60s Saturday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday evening with broken mid level clouds giving way to scattered high clouds between 12Z and 18Z. Otherwise light south to southwest winds should turn westerly by 18Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Dergan

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