Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291001 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 401 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 LIGHT SNOW TODAY THEN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SPINNING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WAVE APPEARS WEAKER THAN MODEL FORECASTS FROM YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STILL SEEING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EASTERLY TRACK OF SHORTWAVE PUTS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ZONE OF BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AREA SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT A SLOW TOP-DOWN SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. BUT WHEN SATURATION IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SNOW...MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER OF SOUNDINGS. THUS EVEN WITH WEAK LIFT EXPECT EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION WITH FLUFFY SNOW AND HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS...IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 17 TO 1 OR HIGHER. THIS PUTS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE MARKEDLY. SNOW SHOULD END THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW GIVEN VERY COLD AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 1052MB HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE PLAINS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKER CLOUDS SOUTH MAY HOLD TEMPS ABOVE ZERO...AND SNOWCOVER IN THE NORTH WILL AID IN PLUNGING TEMPS CLOSER TO 10 BELOW. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...NOT DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH. THIS COMBINATION PUTS WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF. SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED MIDNIGHT TO NOON THERE. LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN PLUNGE WELL BELOW ZERO. OUR NORTH MAY HALT COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER THIS AGAIN PUTS WIND CHILLS CLOSE TO OR BELOW 20 BELOW. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY THEN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO A NICE RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 A MINOR REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THIS LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS SUGGESTS LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SOUTH THEN. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD APPROACH FREEZING IN THE SOUTH WITH 20S NORTH. THEN COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY DROPS TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 STILL WAITING FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...ONCE THE DRY AIR SATURATES DOWN. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AT KOFK BY 10-12Z...AND KLNK/KOMA BY 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH ALSO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES...AND CONDITIONS TRANSITION TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ENDS AT KOFK BY 23Z...AND 01-02Z AT KOMA/KLNK. AMOUNTS 1 TO 2 INCHES AT KOFK...AND LESS THAN AN INCH AT KLNK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-078. IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ043.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEWALD

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