Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 250014
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
514 PM PDT Sun Jul 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and mostly dry summer pattern will continue through the
work week. However, there will be a slight chance for
thunderstorms near the Canadian border Monday through Wednesday.
High temperatures in the 90s will be common for nearly all towns
this week with a cool down expected next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: A dry westerly flow will remain over the area
through Monday morning. A weak wave then reaches the Cascades
Monday afternoon before tracking along the Canadian border Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to show the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms first in the North Cascades
primarily north of Lake Chelan Monday afternoon. Then as the wave
moves east Monday night just enough mid level instability is
present that isolated nocturnal thunderstorms are possible for the
Okanogan and Methow Valleys, Okanogan Highlands, and Northeast
Mountains. On Tuesday surface heating will again result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains
with a slight chance of this activity making it as far south as
the Upper Columbia Basin, and Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. For both
Monday and Tuesday afternoon surface based CAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG
may result in a few stronger storms...with heavy rain and small
hail the main threats given the low shear environment. Localized
flash flooding is possible especially near burn scars given the
slower storm motions and high precipitable water values of near an
inch. JW

Tuesday Night through Friday: Models are not in great agreement
early on in the forecast. The GFS wants to bring a trough through
the area Wednesday while the ECMWF just shows a weak wave clipping
the north ID area. This is the second run of the GFS to show this
scenario. Have mention of a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains east of Republic eastward to the MT
border, although confidence is low. After that we dry out with a
broad ridge, westerly flow across the Pac NW. Skies will be mostly
clear with temperatures 3-8 degrees above average. Friday will be
the warmest day with all valleys seeing temperatures in the 90s.
100-102 is possible for the LC/Snake River valley and the
Mattawa/Desert Aire areas.

Saturday and Sunday: Once again some model discrepancies on the
potential trough passage next weekend. The good thing is the
models do agree on a trough moving through the area, they just
disagree on timing. Either way Saturday should bring slightly
cooler temperatures with a bigger cool down for Sunday. Sunday we
could see temperatures 3-6 degrees below average - or generally
in the 80s. Winds will likely pick up and remain elevated through
the period. This coupled with dry conditions the previous week
could bring about some fire weather concerns. We will continue to
monitor as the models hopefully soon get a better handle on the
next weekend forecast. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Weak high pressure will allow VFR conditions and light
winds to prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours or more.
After 18Z a weak disturbance may fire off some thunderstorms
within close proximity to the British Columbia Border but this
will not affect the TAF sites in the aviation area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  64  90  63  90 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  90  60  90  59  88 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Pullman        51  90  55  88  54  88 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       63  98  66  96  65  95 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       53  93  57  90  56  90 /   0   0  20  40  20  10
Sandpoint      51  87  53  86  54  85 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Kellogg        52  88  56  87  54  85 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Moses Lake     59  95  64  94  61  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      66  94  68  91  66  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           63  94  66  93  65  93 /   0  10  20  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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