Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 230032
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Mild temperatures continue into the weekend as an upper-level
ridge briefly passes over the region. Chances for precipitation
decrease Friday afternoon for most areas, with additional
accumulation expected for the coastal mountains of the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound.

The next system to affect Southcentral is a North Pacific low
lingering south of the Aleutian Chain. A new low will develop
along the frontal boundary as it lifts north and will become the
new dominant low center over Bristol Bay Saturday night. This
will result in a period of rain for the eastern AKPen, Kodiak
Island, and the eastern Kenai beginning tonight and continuing
into early next week. Persistent easterly flow will develop across
the western Gulf allowing for the bulk of the precipitation to
fall across the Kodiak Island and the eastern side of the Kenai
Peninsula. Downslope flow for the western Kenai up through the
Mat-Su Valley is expected to keep these areas mostly dry.
Temperatures look to remain fairly warm with the primary
precipitation type being rain in the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A low pressure and its warm front will move into the Alaska
Peninsula and Bering Sea this weekend resulting in snowfall then
rain over the area. The warm front currently to the south of the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will lift over the region Saturday
bringing snowfall ranging from a trace to two inches before
changing over to a rain and snow mix then eventually all rain
showers. Most of the precipitation Saturday will fall as rain over
the Alaska Peninsula and the Kuskokwim Delta with snow in the
highest elevations. A brief period of snow/rain mix is likely in
the Aleutians before a change over to all rain showers mid-
morning Saturday. The changeover to all rain showers across the
area will coincide with temperatures rising a few degrees above
32 and a change from an easterly to a more southerly wind
direction. Southerly wind gusts ranging from

As the low moves northward through the Bering Sea, it is
forecasted to pass east of the Pribilof Islands. This track will
result in easterly and northeasterly winds late Saturday morning
in to the afternoon changing to a more northerly direction in the
evening hours. Though temperatures will hover around freezing and
snow fall amounts ranging 1 to 3 inches, wind gusts over the
islands will range from 30 to 40 mph Saturday morning through
early Sunday morning. Periods of blowing snow are expected during
this time and a blowing snow advisory has been issued effective
for Saturday.

-DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The upper level Eastern Bering low draws some additional energy
from the North for Tuesday to the point of becoming a closed
center that remains intact through the rest of forecast period. A
pair of North Pacific lows in the tighter gradient across the
Southern forecast area aid in maintaining the energy over the
Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula for Wednesday and again
Friday. The upper level ridge is holding on just inside the
Canadian Provinces, with a slightly more relaxed situation over
Mainland Alaska.

The remnants of a front dissipate across the Southcentral Coasts
for late Wednesday. The continuing infusion of warmer air makes
most of the precipitation as rain, with snow at higher elevations.
Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the week. Portions
of the Kenai Peninsula, as well as Kodiak Island, AKPEN and the
Aleutians will experience fairly steady rainfall, locally heavy
but brief in duration with the low on Tuesday, and again late
Wednesday and Friday as the follow-on lows track along the
Aleutians on their tracks Eastward. Western Alaska stays in the
colder air, with rain and snow mixed or all snow. Gusty Northerly
winds spread over the Central and Eastern Bering for Tuesday,
crossing the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN through Wednesday. Gusty
Southeasterly winds return to the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN for
a short time Thursday, dissipating for the rest of the week.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The Turnagain Arm jet will bend slightly northward toward
the Anchorage terminal this afternoon between 00Z and 06Z. This
will bring some gusty southeasterly winds, though the strongest
winds will remain just to the south and west over the northern
Inlet. There is some uncertainty in when winds will die down,
but higher confidence that it will be a quick transition from
southeast winds to light northerly winds. Best estimate for this
is around or shortly after 06Z as pressure gradients switch around
in response to storm system approaching the western Gulf/Bristol
Bay area.

There could be a brief light rain shower this aft or early eve
with passage of a weak upper level short-wave. Ceilings will
hover right around 5000 feet during this time but will quickly
rise tonight and remain VFR through Saturday. Easterly winds will
strengthen across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains on Saturday
ahead of a front lifting northward across the Gulf. Presure
gradients will favor a strong southward bend of the Turnagain
Arm jet. Thus, any strong southeast winds will remain well aloft
over the terminal and low level wind shear will NOT be a threat.

&&


$$


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