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000
FXUS61 KBGM 221744
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
144 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and sunny today, but continued cool weather will remain
over the region. Rain showers return to the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Dry and seasonable weather will finish out the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
630 AM Update...

Temps are in the low to mid 30s across the region, with a few of
the normal cold spots hitting the upper 20s. A small area of
clouds has drifted in from the north, stretching from Lake
Ontario into the Catskills. This should dissipate in the next
couple of hours, leaving clear skies for the rest of the day.
The forecast remains on track.

300 AM Update...

A few clouds across the area in what is a very quiet and cool
night. Temperatures currently range in the 30s across the area,
trending a little warmer than originally thought as it looks
like we are getting some more boundary layer mixing than
guidance suggests. Temps should fall a couple more degrees
before sunrise, bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Today will see clear skies and NW flow as a high pressure
center moves overhead. The main weather feature to watch today
is RH in relation to critical fire weather chances. With very
dry air overhead and surface dewpoints in the teens to low 20s,
RH values should fall into the 20-30% range during the afternoon
hours. Winds will fortunately be light thanks to the center of
the high overhead, keeping critical fire weather conditons at
bay.

Monday night into Tuesday has some model discrepancy in relation
to how fast winds shift to the SW and advect in a warmer
airmass. Current thinking is a wind shift occurs in the mid-
evening hours, with warmer air moving in later in the night.
Overnight lows should fall into the mid 30s across the region,
warming in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley first. Low 40s
should move in here before sunrise.

Tuesday will see quiet weather through most of the day ahead of
an approaching trough. Isobars pile up during the late morning,
increasing SW winds to 12-18mph gusting to 25mph. Strongest
winds will be over the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley.
Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s thanks to
strong advection from the SW wind. Rain showers are expected
move into the western counties during the early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
150 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the potential
for rain showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms early in
the day Wednesday with cooler and drier air moving in Wed night
into Thursday.

Broad upper level trough will be rotating through the Northeast
U.S. Wednesday morning with an area of stratiform rain on the
front end of the system. Modest, shallow isentropic lift within
a relatively deep, moist air mass and weak upper level forcing
will produce this wide area of rain Wed morning. Cold air moving
in behind this feature will push in quickly aloft, which will
induce an area of steep mid level lapse rates during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The air mass is not expected
to be very unstable given the presence of rain and a fair amount
of cloud cover. The most favorable time and location of weak
instability will be from the Poconos and southern Catskills
farther to the east and southeast in the afternoon. Given the
cold air aloft and the potential for mixing later in the day,
the main threats will likely be small hail and gusty winds in
any storms that do form and mature.

The cooler and drier air is expected to move in quickly from
the northwest later in the day Wednesday. Surface temperatures
will hold steady in the mid 40s to mid/upper 50s...and then
slowly drop back into the lower to mid 40s by the late
afternoon/evening hours. The large-scale wind field will be
notable during the day with sustained NW winds 15 to 20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph, especially across the Finger Lakes. An
abundance of clearing should occur Wed night, which will combine
with light/calm winds to allow temperatures to fall into the
mid 20s and lower 30s. The coldest air is expected to occur in
the valley locations that decouple from the boundary layer. The
quiet weather will persist into Thursday and the cooler air mass
will remain, but plenty of sun and a high sun angle will allow
high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 50s close to
60. Winds will be substantially lower on Thursday, which will be
a nice relief from the day before.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
150 PM update...

Large scale upper level ridging will move across the region Thu
night into Friday, which will keep weather conditions very
quiet and dry. Temperatures will slowly rebound with morning
lows Friday starting out in the lower to mid 30s before rising
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The next deep low pressure system
is expected to move into the Upper Midwest late Friday and
begin to sweep a warm front north through the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front may have a difficult time producing rain into the slow-
moving dry air mass in the Northeast. Only minor deviation from
the ensemble blend was to delay the onset of the higher chances
of rain until later in the morning hours on Saturday.

This incoming warm front will not only bring increase rain
chances and clouds, but also notably warmer temperatures...
especially on Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will hover around
average for this time of year with scattered rain showers, but
on Sunday, the really warm air is expected to push farther north
and push temperatures into the 70s for nearly all of the
forecast are of northeast PA and central NY. This warm and
unstable air mass will also trigger the potential for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day. The warm
air looks to remain in place going into at least the early part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies will persist into the evening hours, with high
clouds increasing late tonight into Tuesday morning. Clouds will
gradually thicken with lowering ceilings later in the afternoon,
but VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

Expect NW winds with a few gusts around 20 knots this afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will turn southerly
on Tuesday, and become increasingly gusty in the afternoon, with
gusts topping out above 25 knots at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...JTC/MPH