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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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085 FXUS62 KCAE 060816 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 416 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the early this week as multiple disturbances move across the region. A lull in activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week. Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below average next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning, a shortwave ridge is over the forecast area with an upper level trough to the west. Upper ridging will move east of the area today allowing vorticity maxima to move into the region. This will support rounds of showers and thunderstorms today with deep moisture still in place. GOES16 derived PWAT values are still around 1.5 inches this morning. As the air mass destabilizes in the late morning and afternoon we will see convective activity increase and thunderstorms develop. The most prominent shortwave troughs is expected to move across the forecast area in the afternoon. This, along with abnormally high atmospheric moisture, and sbCAPE values likely between 1000 and 2000 J/kg should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate that much of the atmospheric column will be well saturated, which would lead to the potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding, particularly in urban areas or where training occurs. The lack of dry air aloft and weak shear will limit the threat of severe weather. However precip loading could still be strong enough for isolated damaging winds in a wet microburst. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above average during the day and relatively warm overnight. Despite activity diminishing through the evening, at isolated showers seem possible into the night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday and Tuesday night: A weak and somewhat flat upper ridge will help to suppress showers and storms for much of the area. Still can not rule out isolated convection over the northern Midlands. This area will be closer to a weak surface trough and passing shortwave energy. In addition, sea-breeze convection moving inland could bring isolated activity to the eastern cwa during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be well above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the upper 60s. Wednesday and Wednesday night will see similar conditions, but with a stronger shortwave passing through NC during the afternoon helping to produce more scattered convection over the northern Midlands. Moderate instability will exist, but there should be a warm nose aloft helping to keep widespread convection at by for much of the area. Even so, an isolated severe storm can not be ruled out on Wednesday. Highs remain above normal again, with readings in the lower 90s and lows around 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thursday and Thursday night appear to be the best period for strong to possibly severe storms. A cold front will be approaching the region from the west, and upper heights will be falling ahead of an upper trough moving southward through the day. Better shear will also exist through the afternoon, leading to the potential for more organized activity. The front will be moving into the cwa Friday morning before moving through and stalling out off to the south of the cwa Friday evening. Should still see some shower and storm activity early in the day before the front pushes deeper moisture south and better dynamics swing through. Friday night through the weekend then turn drier and much cooler. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Early morning stratus/fog with thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Expect a few hours of ceiling restrictions this morning as low stratus develops over the area. The cloud layer is rather patchy and could lead to only periodic restrictions at some TAF sites. Stratus seems more favored than fog given a 25 knot low level jet, but fog at OGB and OGB cannot be ruled out. With moisture still high over the area we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop in the late morning and afternoon. This will likely lead to restrictions in heavy rain. However confidence in the exact timing is too low to include impactful vis restrictions or TS in the TAFs. Thunderstorm activity will diminish into the evening but convection will likely linger into the night, even if only isolated. Fog and stratus once again possible for early Tuesday morning given the abundant low level moisture. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Morning fog/stratus less likely on Tuesday and Wednesday with drier air over the region. The extended will be active, with mainly diurnal convection each day.&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$