Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 160552
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
152 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the area from the Upper Great
Lakes overnight, bringing dry conditions through Saturday.
Temperatures will still be unseasonably mild for the start of
the weekend. Another cold front will usher in a change to a
colder airmass by late Saturday night and Sunday and the cold
air will persist into the midweek period accompanied by a
chance for snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Plenty of shallow, non-precipitating strato cu based between
1.5-2.5 kft agl will be found across the Northern and Western
Mountains of Pennsylvania overnight, with skies becoming
generally partly cloudy across the Central Ridge and Valley
Region and Lower Susq Region. Lows temps around sunrise Saturday
will range from 30F throughout the perennial cold spots in the
NW Mtns to 40F in the larger Metro Areas throughout the Lower
Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. A ridge
of high pressure will move east across the CWA early Saturday
and will be near the Mid Atlantic Coast by noon.

Temps will be still above normal and in the 50s to low 60s on
Saturday.

A gusty west to southwest wind reaching the 20-25 KT range will
develop during the late morning and continue through the
afternoon as the depth of vertical mixing climbs to between 6-7
kft AGL. Gusts in the upper 20s (KTS) could occur across parts
of the Alleghenies in Western PA.

A few rain showers could sneak into Warren County toward dusk
where POPS are around 20 percent.

Increasing clouds with a few rain showers area expected across
primarily the Northern and Western Mtns later Sat night into
early Sunday and the rain showers should mix with wet snow at
times after midnight Sat night with sfc temps slipping into the
mid-upper 30s and 850 mb temps falling to between -2 and -4C.

Elsewhere, some brief showers are possible near a KAOO to KUNV
and KIPT line, while the SE may escape with nothing more than a
few light sprinkles early Sunday.

For Sunday, the showers will break up/end for the most part as
the cold front moves past the spine of the Appalachians early
on. High temperatures will be near normal in the NW, but still a
little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any
leftover showers go thru the S and linger in the NW, you may see
a rainbow if you look to the west (morning rainbows are more-
rare than evening bows), but that`s a tough call to make this
far away. Might have to see the radar on Sun morning to give
yourself the best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course,
this forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely
Sunday/Sun night.

Several distinct short waves and rounds of diff PVA will track
SE from the Glakes and bring rather frequent snow showers and a
few bands of heavier squalls to PA`s Northern and Western Mtns
for much of the first half of the long term period, with brief
snow showers making it into the Central Mtns and Middle Susq
Valley at times.

The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks a potent upper
level shortwave and cold front through the region Monday. A
round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the passage of
this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing, steep lower
tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are evident in some
models with the fropa, signaling a potential of squalls.

The middle and upper portion of the thick stratocu clouds will
reside within the Dendritic Growth Zone across the Laurel
Highlands and NW mtns Sunday night through Tuesday with sfc
temps by day in the low to mid 30s and mins at night in the 20s.

This temp profile will support light snow accums for much of the
Alleghenies with localized accums of several inches, esp across
the Perennial snowbelt of Warren and NW Mckean Counties.

Still some model spread from day to day and run to run, to how
the fcst plays out after Tuesday. Not real clear cut to how much
warm up will occur mid to late week. Still looking like by late
week it could trend rather wet again.

Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear
likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest
flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and
moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the
upper trough begins to lift out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low clouds continue to settle in over the western highlands
leading to MVFR cigs for those airfields. Expect borderline
IFR/MVFR cigs over the western highlands (BFD, JST) overnight,
with predominantly VFR conds and scattered to little cloud cover
elsewhere. The northwesterly breeze will diminish overnight.

Lingering low clouds over the western highlands should quickly
dissipate during the morning on Saturday, with a
west/southwesterly breeze developing and gusting 15-20 kts by
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds will begin
to increase from the northwest late in the day, as the front
nears. Rain chances will begin for the NW near 00Z Sunday and
gradually increase for the central mountains approaching 06Z.
Some increase in LLWS is likely as the front moves through.

Outlook...

Sat night-Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs developing,
primarily N/W PA. Some snow could mix in as colder air arrives
on Sunday. Predominantly VFR elsewhere.

Sun night-Tues night...Periodic snow showers and reductions
across primarily N/W PA. Gusty W/NW winds areawide.

Wed...Improving conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19
at 11:06 PM EDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Martin/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Lambert/Martin/Tyburski
AVIATION...Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl


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