210
ACUS01 KWNS 101301
SWODY1
SPC AC 101259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest.
Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast
and Southeast.

...Central Plains to Midwest...
A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences
including MCV development and convective overturning, at least
temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat
consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an
MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field,
could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today,
potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models
indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow
(including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist
through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears
that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper
boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm
activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts.

Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska
into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height,
might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable
CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this
evening.

...New England and Upper Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec
today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic
flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England.
Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable
during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE
(1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of
20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will
be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York
and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear
should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent
associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations,
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters
may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength
westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard regionally.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025

$$