533
FXUS65 KFGZ 090916
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
216 AM MST Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A mixture of below normal and near normal temperatures
will persist through the weekend, with isolated to scattered
showers returning Friday through Sunday. Expect typical spring-
like breezes each afternoon, and above normal temperatures
returning by next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure continues to be
centered over the Great Plains all while an area of high pressure
begins to build over the Pacific Ocean. This pattern will leave
Arizona in a zonal flow for today, before the backside of the
elongated low breaks off and forms a closed low over AZ/UT on
Friday. The main adjustment to the forecast with this upcoming
closed low is isolated to scattered precipitation chances for far
northern and eastern Arizona. The NBM is struggling to pick up
chances for precipitation, but multiple hi-res guidance solutions
seem to be in favor of mentionable precipitation north of I-40. As
a result, a fair amount of blending/editing took place while
working on the PoP grids for Friday afternoon, Saturday afternoon
and Sunday afternoon. These precipitation chances may continue to
increase as model guidance begins to show greater agreement, but
for now, expect greatest chances for isolated to scattered showers
along the Kaibab Plateau and near the Four Corners Friday through
Sunday.

The area of high pressure building over the Pacific Ocean will
gradually push inland and force the closed low eastward. This
transition looks to occur towards the end of the weekend and into
next week. This will quickly ramp up temperatures across the High
Country, with afternoon highs likely reaching 70+ degrees for many
areas above 6000 feet. Winds still look to be typical spring-like
breezes.

Another disturbance may sneak into our neck of the woods by the
middle of next week, but there is little confidence in that
solution as of now. Check back for updates!


&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 09/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...Widespread VFR
conditions and mainly light winds from variable directions are
forecast. However, northeast winds tonight could become gusty
along and downslope of the high terrain. And, visibility
reductions are possible at KFLG, mainly overnight, due to smoke
from a nearby prescribed fire.

OUTLOOK...Friday 10/06Z through Sunday 12/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions and light winds are forecast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible northeast of a KGCN-KRQE line each
day. Areas of smoke and haze are also possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Cool with breezy
afternoons. Min RH 10 to 20% each day with moderate to good
overnight recoveries. There will be just enough moisture for a low
chance (10-30%) of a shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon mainly
north of a Flagstaff-Window Rock line. Northeast wind 5-15 mph
Thursday morning, becoming mainly southwest 10-15 mph gusting 20-25
mph Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Slight chances (10 to 30%) of showers and
thunderstorms along the UT and NM borders Saturday afternoon,
expanding to include all higher terrain of northern Arizona Sunday
and Monday. Temperatures warm to above average for Sunday and Monday
with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20%. West-northwest winds 10-15 mph
gusting 20-25 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff