252
FXUS65 KGGW 091903
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
103 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers move through south of HWY 2 this afternoon,
  with dry weather the next couple days afterward.

- There is high confidence for slightly warmer than normal
  conditions this weekend into much of next week, with moderate
  confidence of scattered thunderstorms beginning Sunday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

As the low pressure system that gave northeast MT rain earlier
this week moves off to the south, scattered showers will pop up
south of HWY 2 this afternoon. They will end from north to south
this evening, giving way to a ridge that will bring slightly
warmer than normal temps to the area this weekend into early next
week. A shortwave trough, with an accompanying cold front, is
expected to move through on Monday to initiate thunderstorms. A
drop to near normal temps will occur with this system by Tuesday.
On Monday, the NBM indicates surface dewpoints will be in the 40s
to low 50s, while most of the GFS ensemble members indicate
moderate (50 percent) probabilities for surface-based CAPE values
to exceed 500 J/kg. There is low confidence of severe
thunderstorms occurring on Monday, as the CAMs do not reach far
enough out in time to resolve the timing and location of the
stronger storms.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence exists on a slightly above average temperatures
this weekend, as NBM forecast highs in the 70s and lower 80s
are expected on Sunday and Monday. There is low confidence on the
timing and location of strong thunderstorms on Monday.

-Stoinskers


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR/MVFR

DISCUSSION: Cloud ceilings will mostly remain in VFR territory,
with scattered MVFR possible in showers. As a weak cold front
passes through, scattered showers are expected to develop south
of HWY 2 and last through late this afternoon before ending. There
will be VFR conditions after 03Z.

WINDS: North at 5 to 15 kts, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 kts
after 00Z.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow