382
FNUS73 KGRR 100833
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Pauls Rx...Fort Custer National Gaurd
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
433 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Expecting some patchy cumulus cloud development during the middle
of the day with a deep mixing layer. Light breeze should be mainly
from the northwest trending west.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................44 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 10
                    mph shifting to the west around 9 mph in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6900 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 12 mph shifting to the west
                    late in the day.
Smoke dispersal.....780 /excellent/ at ignition. Max...780
                    /excellent/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........31     53     34     13     29     56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............61     62     63     61     56     53
RH..............44     44     43     44     55     61
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 10  W 10   W 9    SW 6   S 6
20 ft wind gust.14     15     16     14     9      8
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   6700   6400   3900   400    400
Mixing wind.....N 12   NW 10  NW 12  W 10   W 8    SW 8
Haines index....4      5      5      5      4      4
Smoke disprsl...780    690    740    410    40     30

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 8 mph increasing to 16 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    20 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through early afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms through early afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 18 to 25 mph shifting to the northwest 23
                    to 31 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....260 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    1300 (excellent) in the afternoon increasing to
                    660 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413668.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL osterlandlee@gmail.com