250
FNUS73 KGRR 171347
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Billy Goat Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
947 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions continue today with sunny skies. Patchy fog this
morning should dissipate though some fog may linger along the
lakeshore. Wind will stay light (less than 10 mph) and mainly from
the west. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 70s inland,
while areas near the lakeshore will stay a touch cooler with highs
only in the mid 60s. Sufficient sunshine may help lakeshore temps
warm into the upper 60s closer to 70. Min RH near 60 percent is
expected today, but if afternoon temperatures overperform then
expect a lower min RH into the 50 percent range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........64 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 6 to 7 mph in the afternoon becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1200 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........West 3 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....70 /poor/ at ignition. Max...70 /poor/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT
Sky (%).........43     36     29     31     25     27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............64     63     62     60     55     53
RH..............60     60     62     64     72     74
20 ft wind......W 6    W 7    NW 6   NW 2   NW 1   S 1
20 ft wind gust.8      10     8      5      2      2
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   800    800    400    400    400
Mixing wind.....W 6    W 6    W 6    NW 5   N 2    SE 3
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Smoke disprsl...70     50     50     20     10     10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog
                    toward daybreak.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the north
                    around 2 mph in the evening, then shifting to
                    the southeast 2 to 6 mph late at night shifting
                    to the south around 6 mph toward daybreak.
Smoke dispersal.....10 (poor).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph through
                    early afternoon, then shifting to the southwest
                    5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 7 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....20 (poor).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Thielke
Requested by...Tom Barnes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414508.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barnest2@michigan.gov