Text Products for AFD Issued by HNX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
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FXUS66 KHNX 212059
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
159 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values this
afternoon and Monday afternoon.

2. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Friday.

3. A few thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

4. The next storm system may impact Central California Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the region continues to provide unseasonably
warm conditions across central California. High temperatures
yesterday were around 10 degrees above normal, and temperatures
are on track to top out a degree or so higher this afternoon.
Dry and warming conditions will continue into Monday under the
influence of the resident ridge. High temperatures Monday
afternoon will be around 12 to 16 degrees above normal for this
time of year. This will equate to readings near 90 degrees at
some San Joaquin Valley locations, especially to the south of
Madera County. Here is probabilistic guidance for maximum
temperatures of 90 degrees or higher at some San Joaquin Valley
locations for Monday April 22, 2024:

Fresno - 61%
Bakersfield - 56%
Delano - 51%
Lemoore - 46%
Visalia - 41%
Hanford - 41%
Porterville - 31%

By Tuesday, a developing low pressure system located near
31N/132W will be displacing the ridge, leading to some synoptic
cooling, while also allowing some cooler air to push into
central California. High temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will
be around 10 degrees lower than on Monday and will drop further,
to right around normal, on Wednesday as the low pressure system
nears the California coast. Model ensemble solutions drag the
low pressure system inland across California Wednesday into
Thursday, creating a 15 to 25 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the Sierra zones on Wednesday and keeping
temperatures near normal on Thursday.

A more significant trough of low pressure digging southward
along the West Coast by the end of the week will drop high
temperatures to a few degrees below normal for Friday and
Saturday. Probabilistic guidance from the National Blend of
Models gives probabilities around 45-55 percent for maximum
temperatures no higher than 70 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley
on Friday April 26th. The system will also bring precipitation
to our area by early Friday, with lingering mountain showers
into Saturday. Snow levels will run around 6 to 7 thousand feet,
above which there will be some light to moderate snowfall
accumulations in the Sierra Nevada. Probabilistic guidance from
the National Blend of Models shows high-end snowfall amounts(10%
chance) as high as 5-10 inches over the higher elevations near
the Yosemite area, but more generally around 3-6 inches.

Total QPF amounts range from around one to two tenths of
an inch in the San Joaquin Valley from Fresno County northward
to just a few hundredths of an inch farther south into Kern
County, and little to none in the desert areas. Up to one
quarter to one half inch of rain is forecast for the Sierra
foothills and higher terrain up to the snow line.

Dry and warming conditions will return for the start of next
week, with high temperatures back to around normal, as the low
pressure system moves away to the east.


&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for
at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...JEB
PIO/DSS........................DAS

weather.gov/hanford
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
