671
FXUS64 KJAN 120559 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

Most of the near term will be quiet amid a dry airmass. Seasonal
temperatures have been observed leading to a very pleasant
afternoon. As high pressure moves east, we will slowly begin to
recover a moist airmass with steady warm advection. Mid to high
level clouds will increase as a result, especially after midnight
and perhaps a few showers in the far southwest. This regime persists
into tomorrow as a weak disturbances pushes across the area late
tomorrow afternoon and evening. As a result, rain and storm chances
should increase, especially further south and west. Storm chances
will be on the rise ahead of a stronger system for Monday which will
carry a greater threat for strong to severe storms and possibly
flash flooding./SAS/

Sunday Night through Friday...

An active weather pattern will begin to unfold across the
forecast area as we round out this weekend and head into the new
work week. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
slide east of the region Sunday night into Monday. This is in
response to a southern stream shortwave that`ll shift east out of
the southern plains and into the Southeast United States. As this
happens, deep moisture will begin feeding north into the region as
a surface low develops and deepens over the southern plains. This
surface low will eventually drag a cold front east in and through
the forecast area on Tuesday.

As this happens, disturbances out ahead of this system will push
east through the region.  This will prompt a good coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area beginning late
Sunday night, and continuing through the daytime hours Monday, and
into Monday night.  It`ll also be during this time that the threat
for severe storms will exist across the CWA, mainly early Monday
morning and continuing into Monday evening.  This, along with the
potential for flash flooding.

As far as the severe threat is concerned, currently models are
indicating showers and storms ongoing across the CWA late Sunday
night into early Monday morning, with a couple of models showing a
possible complex of storms affecting the area during the early
Monday morning hours.  With the majority of Monday morning`s
convection east of the CWA, we`ll catch a bit of a break during the
afternoon hours.  However during this time, our airmass will recover
as moisture increases.  This, coupled with favorable deep-layer wind
shear, and increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates as another
disturbance pushes northeast through the region, will result in
showers and storms redeveloping over the forecast area late in the
day on Monday and continuing into Monday evening.  Damaging wind
gusts and quarter size hail will be the primary concerns with the
most intense storms, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall will be a concern during this time as well.  With
precipitable H2O values approaching 2 inches, flash flooding will be
possible from both high rainfall rates and the potential for west to
east training convection.  With 2-3 inches, and locally higher, of
rain possible, localized flash flooding will be possible, especially
low-lying and poor drainage areas, along with some minor river
flooding.

Showers will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the main upper
trough moves through the region.  This activity will steadily exit
the CWA through the course of the afternoon as this trough exits to
the northeast.  High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will
quickly build into the region Tuesday night, with a return to quiet
weather expected through at least Wednesday night.

Chances for showers and storms will yet again increase across the
forecast area early Thursday morning, with chances remaining in the
forecast through Friday.  This is as a result of yet another series
of disturbances forecast to affect the forecast area.  It`ll also be
during this time once again, that the potential for heavy rain will
likely need to monitored in upcoming forecasts. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An area of -SHRA has spread into southern and western portions of
the area faster than expected but, VFR conditions and a light
wind will prevail through 00Z Sun. An isold -TSRA may come in vcty
of the cntrl and srn TAF sites this aftn. Otherwise, after 00Z Sun
MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop from the west and spread east through
the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  80  67  83 /  80  90  70  30
Meridian      62  77  66  85 /  60 100  70  50
Vicksburg     63  83  67  83 /  90  80  60  20
Hattiesburg   64  83  68  87 /  70 100  80  40
Natchez       64  84  66  84 /  80  80  60  10
Greenville    64  80  68  81 /  80  80  60  20
Greenwood     64  79  67  81 /  80  80  60  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/19/22