Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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072 FXUS64 KJAN 140551 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1251 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 It looks like the last hint of any strong to severe storm threat this evening is associated with the cluster of storms in the SE AR to NW MS area where a pocket of greater instability existed on the northwest periphery of the late aftn/early evening MCS. Also, the powerful convective system that tracked east across central/srn LA has become more suppressed, and it appears to no longer be a concern for southeast portions of the forecast area in terms of severe weather. Overall, the near term forecast is on track with rain and storm chances diminishing as we go through the overnight, and no significant adjustments have been made for this update. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tonight and Tuesday...A shortwave will slowly shift east from the central plains states into the Ohio River Valley tonight through Tuesday. This will prompt a surface low to likewise shift east from the plains into the Ohio River Valley, while dragging a weak cold front through the CWA on Tuesday. Ahead of this shortwave this evening and into tonight, a disturbance embedded in quasi-zonal flow will shift east through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will prompt showers and storms to develop and move east across the forecast area this evening into tonight. A "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms does exist across mainly western and southern portions of the CWA during this time. However, thanks to this morning`s convection, a frontal boundary has become stationary along the gulf coast. This is keeping ample deep moisture and instability from surging northward into the CWA. On top of that, this morning`s convection has essentially worked over the airmass over the CWA. While again, an isolated severe storm is possible tonight over western and southern portions of the area, where a combination of wind shear and limited instability reside, the greatest threat for severe storms will be south of the forecast area, and more along the gulf coast and offshore. That said, damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with any isolated severe storms. Earlier there was a concern for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over southern areas today through Tuesday morning. This threat too has been shunted south of the CWA along the aforementioned frontal boundary and warm sector, where the deeper moisture exists and likewise the higher rainfall rates. As a result, I`ve cancelled the Flash Flood Watch that was initially in effect for southern locations through Tuesday morning, and I`ve removed all mention of flash flooding from the HWO. Any flash flooding that may occur with tonight`s convection, will be very localized and limited to low- lying and poor drainage areas. Showers and isolated storms will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the main upper trough and the cold front moves through the region. Convection will steadily come to and end from west to east through the course of the afternoon as both features exit the region. Skies will also gradually clear from west to east as high pressure quickly build into the region heading into the Tuesday night period. With clouds departing, look for highs to warm into the low and middle 80s. /19/ Tuesday Night through next Monday...Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday the main trough will have passed through the area along with a weak shortwave. Expect a high pressure to begin to build into the area overnight, following the preceding showers during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday. Dry weather will ensue on Wednesday as the upper trough moves east. During this time expect winds to shift southwesterly as low level moisture begins to increase. Come Thursday, several rounds of shortwaves will begin to shoot across the area as chances for isolated and scattered showers and storms become increasingly possible Thursday evening overnight into Friday. This presents the best possibilities for strong to severe storms as a negatively tilted trough axis over the Southern Plains will send another shortwave and associated cold front through our area. Persistent heavy rain seems to be the primary risk associated with this event with flash flooding being possible through the weekend. Wet conditions may linger into the weekend as another shortwave will be possible however there isn`t much model consensus right now. As of now, we expect excessive rainfall products to be likely with possible 3-5 inches of rainfall from Thursday night through Monday with 2-3 inches possible Thursday into Friday. Locally higher amounts are possible. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across sites this evening as the bulk of the precipitation exits the area. Expect mostly MVFR/IFR conditions through the remainder of the night. Drier air will build in on Tuesday with most sites becoming VFR after 16-17Z and continuing through the end of the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 63 84 63 / 30 0 0 0 Meridian 84 62 86 61 / 40 0 0 0 Vicksburg 84 62 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 85 64 88 63 / 50 0 0 0 Natchez 84 61 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 82 64 84 65 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 82 63 83 64 / 40 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15