011
FXUS66 KLOX 021954
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1254 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...02/937 AM.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday as the region remains
between high pressure aloft to the west and an exiting trough to
the east. Warming will continue to take shape across the northern
and interior portions of the area today, while a persistent marine
layer will moderate the warming across the South Coast of
California. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the area
to the north this weekend and bring cooler temperatures, gusty
winds, and a chance for light precipitation later Saturday into
Sunday. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...02/950 AM.

***UPDATE***

Onshore flow to the east has weakened today, but not to the extent
models had been showing. As a result, a strong eddy circulation
developed over the southern coastal waters and is supporting a
1500-2000` marine layer between Santa Barbara and LA. Meanwhile,
across the interior and along the Central Coast, northeast winds
have developed with local gusts earlier this morning to around 40
mph. For areas in the marine layer today will feel a lot like
yesterday with highs in the 60s to low 70s at the coast and mid
70s to lower 80s for the valleys. Warm temperatures expected along
parts of the Central Coast today with the offshore flow there.

***From Previous Discussion***

With the ridge aloft and offshore flow weakening later today, the
marine layer cloud field should become a bit more entrenched
tonight and into Friday morning. Ridging aloft should tighten the
marine inversion some and possibly inhibit clearing on Friday at
the beaches. A return of low clouds and fog should occur along the
Central Coast, but there is a moderate chance that the low cloud
forecast could be a little too expansive along the Central Coast
for late tonight and into Friday morning.

By Friday night, cyclonic flow will start to develop and a
deepening marine layer should be expected as onshore flow
strengthens. Marine layer induced low clouds and fog should be
fairly aggressive on Friday night and Saturday as low clouds and
fog will likely push into the coastal slopes of the mountains.
Much cooler temperatures will start to spread into areas north of
Point Conception on Saturday as an unseasonably cold upper-level
trough digs into northern California. A cold frontal boundary will
drop south into the region late Saturday and bring an increase in
chances for precipitation on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/455 AM.

The frontal boundary will continue to move south and east over
the area into Sunday while weakening some. The highest chance for
precipitation will be for areas north of Point Conception, along
the northern slopes of the mountains, and into the San Gabriel
Valley between Saturday night and Sunday. EPS, GEFS, and CMC
ensemble members buy into this idea emphasizing these areas being
wetter. Southern Santa Barbara County, Ventura County, and western
Los Angeles County could end up being in a rain shadow effect as
downsloping occurs from the Transverse Ranges. PoPs break away
from NBM values between Saturday night and into Sunday, and go
higher than the previous forecast for the wetter areas. Likely
PoPs may be needed by future shifts if the pattern continues for
areas north of Point Conception, along the northern slopes of the
mountains, and into the San Gabriel Valley. Almost all solutions
of the EPS suggest rain for terminals north of Point Conception,
KSDB, KEMT, and KPOC.

Temperatures will be quite cool for Sunday across the area. Record
cold high temperatures could be tied in some areas as a cold
pattern for May sets up. Temperatures go colder than NBM values
for Sunday.

Gusty winds could end being the main story with this system. EPS
members produce a broad period of gusty winds between Sunday and
Monday morning. Gusty west to northwest will likely develop on
Sunday across most areas, and a wide swath of wind advisories
might be needed for Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty northwest
to north are likely to linger through the Interstate 5 Corridor
and into southern Santa Barbara County for Sunday night and into
Monday morning.

A warming and drying trend should develop for the work week next
week as forecast ensemble advertised a consistent warming trend in
the temperature means.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1953Z.

At 1844Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 ft deep with an
inversion top at 5000 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs and KPRB, moderate confidence
elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2
hours. There is a 20% chance of IFR-MVFR cigs at KSBP after 10Z
and a 30% chance of VFR conds through the period at KSMX. For
sites south of Point Conception, cigs could arrive as IFR upon
arrival, then lift to MVFR.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could arrive as low as BKN008
and will lift through the period. There is a 20% chance of an
east wind component of 7-8 kt 09Z-15Z Fri.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of cigs will
arrive as early as 07Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...02/917 AM.

In the outer waters, an extended period of gusty winds are
expected with periods of Gale Force possible through much of next
week. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to
increase to Gales (70-80% chance) this afternoon, then continue
thru late tonight. Winds will likely drop to SCA levels late
tonight thru Fri afternoon, then Gales are likely for the waters
north of Point Conception (60-70% chance) late Fri afternoon thru
late Fri night. Winds will drop Sat morning, possibly even below
SCA levels, but seas will remain at SCA levels. SCA level winds
are expected Sat afternoon thru Mon, with a 40% chance of Gales
Sun afternoon/evening.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds and seas will
develop this morning, then continue thru late tonight. SCA level
winds are likely during the afternoon/eve hours Fri, Sun, and Mon
(60-70% chance), with a 40-50% chance Sat afternoon/eve.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in western portions
of the channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours
today and Fri (50% chance), and in most of the SBA Channel during
the late afternoon thru late night hours Sat thru Mon. There is a
20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level
winds in NW portions (from Anacapa Island to Malibu) during the
late afternoon/eve hours today and Fri. SCA level winds are likely
during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Sun,
especially in western portions, then there is a 40% chance Mon.
There is a 20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Hall
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox