Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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499 FXUS64 KMEG 101540 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1040 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A beautiful mid spring morning across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with comfortable humidity. The latest surface analysis places a 1001mb low off the New England Coast with a cold front extending southeast through the Carolinas, back into Alabama, and along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. A 1024mb high was analyzed over Colorado. Moderate northwest winds will keep temperatures from warming too much more this afternoon, despite plentiful sunshine and dry air in place. Expect highs in the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Made minor edits to winds and temperatures through late afternoon. The rest of the forecast is in good shape. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure will result in pleasant weather through the weekend. Unsettled weather is on tap for next week. The first system will result in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. A relatively dry day is on tap for Wednesday before another system brings back shower and thunderstorm chances by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Cirrus from convection well to the south covers much of the Mid- South along and south I-40 with clear skies to the north. Temps this morning range from the upper 50s in NW TN to 70 at Tupelo with light north winds. High pressure will continue to build into the region today and continue through the weekend with pleasant temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Highs will be cooler than normal today, in the 70s climbing to the lower 80s by Sunday. Temps will drop into the 50s tonight with lows a little warmer each night through the weekend. Next week looks unsettled. A mid level upper low will move from the Four Corners region into the Mid South early next week with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. An increasingly moist boundary layer, with dewpoints climbing back into the lower to mid 60s, combined with cold air aloft associated with the upper low could result in some strong storms. Expect these would occur mainly during peak heating in the afternoon/early evening Monday (western sections) and Tuesday (areawide). The area should get a brief reprieve on Wednesday as the upper low pulls east and shortwave ridging builds over the region. Expect a mostly dry day with highs in the lower 80s. The next upper trough will push into the area by Thursday with more chances for showers and thunderstorms for the end of week. A cold front should push through late in the week with a perhaps another nice weekend in the cards. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region today with VFR conditions expected for the entire forecast period. Winds will be from the north around 5 knots this morning, increasing to around 10 knots with higher gusts by this afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected tonight. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ARS