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000
FXUS62 KMLB 270703
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches this
Weekend...
...Deteriorating Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal
Waters....
...Breezy, Windy, Gusty East Winds Today...

Current...Deepening and increasing onshore flow early this morning.
KMLB 88D showing occasional light precip across the Volusia coastal
waters. Some of this light/brief activity may occasionally make it
to the immediate coast, but mainly just a trace to a few hundredths.
Conditions otherwise mainly dry. The onshore flow and elevated winds
will keep temperatures up overnight in the U60s to L70s for coastal
locations and M60s well into the interior. Satellite imagery shows
high clouds intruding from the WNW.

Today-Tonight...Mid-level shortwave troughing across the eastern
CONUS will weaken slightly and we will see some weak shortwave
impulses penetrate the FL peninsula, but will have little effect due
to the stable marine airmass in place. Stout surface high pressure
along the Eastern Seaboard will gradually weaken with center along
the mid Atlc states by sunrise Sun morning. This will keep a
persistent ERLY flow across the region. Wind speeds will increase to
16-23 mph sustained with frequent higher gusts across much of ECFL.
Wind gusts will approach 25-30 mph, and won`t be surprised to see
some gusts to 35 mph - especially along the coast. This tighter
pressure gradient continues into the evening, with a diminishing
trend overnight across the interior - though speeds will remain
elevated and gusty closer to the coast.

Though we have a fairly stable airmass in place, the deep/onshore
flow will permit for a few sprinkles and perhaps a brief light
shower to push onto the coast occasionally - especially Cape
northward. Again, a trace to a few hundredths is all that can be
expected. PoPs overall are up to 10-15pct over land areas. We
should see a bit more cloud-cover pushing onto the coast and
inland during the day, on top of the intruding high clouds (from
the west).

Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s near the coast and L-M80s into
the interior. Overnight mins remain mild and in the 60s areawide,
perhaps some L70s along the immediate coast/barrier islands in
play as winds stay elevated.

Expect a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip
currents at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Rough surf will also
be present. Entering the surf zone today will be strongly
discouraged!

Sunday-Monday...Surface high pressure will remain anchored just
offshore from the Carolinas early in the week with a very strong and
broad ridge aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Deep onshore
flow will persist due to the proximity of the surface high, with
east winds of 15-20 mph. Little to no rain is forecast, although
embedded oceanic moisture may lead to isolated showers over the
Atlantic waters. Confidence in showers moving onshore is not high
enough to include in the forecast, so have kept mention away from
land areas on Sunday and Monday. Easterly flow will actually keep
temperatures just a bit below normal on Sunday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s at the coast and approaching the mid 80s inland. Highs
warm a few degrees on Monday (closer to average values for late
April). Seasonal lows in the mid 60s.

Tuesday-Saturday...The remainder of the forecast period will be high
and dry as the surface high drifts slightly seaward through midweek
but still keeps influence on the local pattern. Onshore winds
continue this week, increasing in the afternoon with the east coast
sea breeze. No PoPs in the forecast through next weekend, although
could see hints of light onshore moving showers similar to early in
the week, but do not have confidence to include. Temperatures by
Tuesday reach the upper 80s inland; still lower 80s at the coast,
with the 90s making an appearance to begin the month of May. While
it will be warm, lower dewpoints will keep the oppressiveness at bay
for at least a bit longer. Lows in the mid/upper 60s persist this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mainly VFR conds, though we will see a bit more in the way of
marine stratocu streaming onto the coast, to go along with the
intruding high clouds (from the west). Even with the stable
airmass, we will see some light coastal shower activity,
especially Cape northward, and some of this (sprinkles/brief light
showers) could affect coastal TAF sites. Confidence and coverage
not there for inclusion of VCSH. Otherwise, a tight pressure
gradient today with ERLY wind speeds approaching 15-20 kts,
perhaps higher along the coast. There will be frequent higher
gusts 20-25 kts - perhaps approaching 30 kts at some coastal TAF
sites. Winds will be slow to diminish during the evening - staying
elevated and gusty at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions as the pressure
gradient tightens with ERLY winds 15-20 kts this morning increasing
to 20-25 kts by late afternoon-evening, gradually backing down
again late overnight to 15-20 kts by daybreak Sun morning. Initial
seas 3-5 ft will build to 5-6 ft near shore and 6-7 ft offshore by
late afternoon, and further to 6-7 ft near shore and 7-8 ft Gulf
Stream tonight. Will begin early Small Craft Advisories (SCA`s)
for the offshore marine legs and near shore Treasure Coast for
the early morning coastal waters forecast, gradually adding the
near shore Brevard/Volusia waters early this afternoon. SCA`s
will continue tonight areawide. Very isolated sprinkles/light
showers (light precip) possible over the next 24 hours.

Sunday-Tuesday...While boating conditions improve in the latter part
of the weekend, 6 ft seas will remain through Sunday evening,
subsiding into the early part of the work week. East winds of 15-20
knots Sunday will diminish below 15 knots by Monday, varying east to
southeast through mid-week. Isolated light showers over the Atlantic
water will be possible each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Today...Deep onshore (ERLY) winds increase 15-20 mph with frequent
higher gusts up to around 25 mph and perhaps 30-35 mph along the
immediate coast at times this afternoon. Min RHs stay above
critical levels, 40-45pct along the Kissimmee River and 45-60pct
towards the coast. Conditions mainly dry outside of a sprinkle or
brief light shower along the coast (esp Cape northward).
Dispersions will be Very Good to Excellent!

Sunday-Wednesday...East winds of 15-20 mph on Sunday will diminish
through the early part of the work week. Temperatures will begin a
warming trend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. Min RH
values will be above critical levels Sunday and Monday, but will
drop below 40% west of Orlando by Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
remains out of the forecast this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  66  79  64 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  83  67  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  67  80  66 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  81  65  80  65 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  83  65  83  63 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  82  65  82  63 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  83  67  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  81  65  80  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Sedlock