000
FXUS63 KPAH 242010 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER
HEARTLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATED A NORTHERLY LIGHT BREEZE
WITH LOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. 12Z FRI UPPER AIR RUN ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CU FORMING BUT WITH VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND
NOT MIX OUT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
EAST AND INTO THE HEARTLAND THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE SOME MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WOULD BE SLOWER TO
ADVECT MOISTURE THAN A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BETTER EXPLAIN WHY THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN ABOVE 5K FEET BUT FAIRLY DRY AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD SLOW PRECIP SATURATING
TO THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY HENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION CANT RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHC TO SLIGHT CHC THIS WEEKEND. ALSO WITH K INDICIES
AROUND 30 AND LI`S NEGATIVE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. HOWEVER THINK IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING THAN SATURDAY EVENING. THUS PLAN
TO BACK OFF ON TIMING AND CHC OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
RESTRICT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND
COLLABORATION FOR FINAL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. THE 12Z FRI NAM IS IN
AND PRODUCED A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO THAN THE 6Z RUN.

OTHERWISE WILL START A SLOW WARM UP AFTER TODAY BRINGING TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT / WAA LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA...COUPLE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT RIDING EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE FORECASTING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE THE CASE
TUE/WED. BEYOND THAT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE CORE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. WENT CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN
RAISING HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LONG TERM. INHERITED MIN
TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN