Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FGUS73 KPAH 081002
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-082200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
402 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STREAM NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THURSDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM POPLAR BLUFF AND GREENVILLE WESTWARD IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS
IN DOUBT AND THAT CERTAINLY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MORE
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD HAVE AN
ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE
ISOLATED...IT WOULD LEAD TO A LESSER OVERALL FLOOD THREAT.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
BEYOND THURSDAY...AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES NEAR ELKTON
KENTUCKY TO AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE VAN BUREN MISSOURI AREA. MOST
OF THE REGION WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.

SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER MOIST...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RATHER EFFICIENT RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE
RAINS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS
POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENT.

$$

DRS



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