Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FGUS73 KPAH 081750
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ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-091800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHAPING UP...

WHILE THE QUAD STATE HAS ENJOYED RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS THIS LATE
SUMMER AND EARLY FALL...CHANGE IS ON THE WAY IN OUR NEAR FUTURE.
A WET FORECAST IS SHAPING UP...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER RAINFALL FORECAST ESTIMATES VARY...BUT
OUTLOOK THE QUAD STATE IN A BROAD AND GENERAL RANGE FROM ABOUT 3
INCHES ON A LOW END...TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE ON
THE HIGH END. THESE HIGH END ESTIMATES ARE INCLUSIVE OF RAINFALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OR OVER A 7 DAY TIME
PERIOD.

THESE ARE LONG RANGE ESTIMATES AND NOT NECESSARILY TO BE TAKEN AS
A FIXED FORECAST AMOUNT. FORTUNATELY...DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND THE FACT THAT THESE RAINS MAY BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS
TIME PERIOD...IT WOULD APPEAR OUR AREA CAN HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS IF
TOO MUCH OF IT DOES NOT FALL IN TOO SHORT A TIME PERIOD.

WHAT HAPPENS IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVOLVE AND SET UP
SOMEWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND EXTEND ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS WAVES OF ENERGY IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN SHOOT OUT AND OVERTOP THE
BOUNDARY...INDUCING STORMS AND RAINFALL...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES.

WHILE THERE WILL BE RAINFALL FORECAST EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE REALIZED WILL COME IN TWO MAIN ROUNDS. THE FIRST
SUCH ROUND LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
BASICALLY...EACH OF THESE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN COULD YIELD A COUPLE
INCHES OR HIGHER RAINFALL.

WHILE WE APPEAR READY TO ABSORB THESE AMOUNTS...THE NWS WILL
MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS OCCURRING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
WHICH MAY IMPACT FLASHY RIVER POINTS LIKE IN THE MISSOURI OZARKS
OR MORE FLOOD PRONE URBANIZED LOCALES.

STAY TUNED TO FUTURE NWS WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS AND
UPDATES...AND PREPARE FOR A WET FORECAST FOR THE COMING 7 DAYS.

$$





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