Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 280012
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OUT TO AROUND 66 HRS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA ALASKA. MAIN
CONCERNS WERE COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL/IMPACTS...RIVER FLOODING
CONCERNS...AND THE HAZARDS ALREADY IN EFFECT.

.ALOFT...
A STRONG 522 DAM LOW IS LOCATED 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR/KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE FORMER
ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORIES...THE LATTER INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
LATTER OPEN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRI.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE LOW NORTH OF
BARROW WILL DROP SOUTH TO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALASKA BY
SAT...IN THE PROCESS SENDING SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE NW-SE AROUND A 850 HPA LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST INTO THE NORTH SLOPE...WEST COAST...AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING...STAYING ELEVATED
AFTERWARDS AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
CONTINUES WITH ADVISORY GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES LOCALLY
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY...REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...MAY SEE ELEVATED GUSTS TO SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS THE
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...AND THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY/THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY HOWEVER...THEY WILL NOT REACH THEIR ADVISORY
LEVELS. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA.

.SURFACE...
A ELONGATED 985 MB LOW CURRENTLY 250 NM NORTH OF BARROW WHICH
STRETCHES TO THE AMUNDSEN GULF WILL STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM OLD
CROW TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
RACE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR.. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO 992 MB AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW ON FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY SAT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS BUILT IN OVER THE NORTHEAST
BERING SEA. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN
RECEDING TOMORROW AS A A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING
STRAIT AND THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UP IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE AREA SHOW THE SNOW OVER IN THE BROOKS RANGE WELL
AND HAVE RECEIVED REPORT THAT THE APPROX SNOW LEVEL WAS ABOUT
2600 FT. NO SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED THOUGH.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE 202...SPECIFICALLY
COASTAL FLOODING THAT IS IMPACTING THE VILLAGE OF BARROW...AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. STEVENSON STREET
IN BARROW IS BEING IMPACTED WITH WATER OVER THE TOP OF THE STREET.
AS SUCH...SECTIONS OF STEVENSON STREET HAVE BEEN CLOSED. WAVES
HAVE INCREASED IN SIZE NEAR BARROW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST REPORT ESTIMATING THAT THEY ARE BREAKING OFF AT 10 FT
OFFSHORE. HEAVY EQUIPMENT IS BEING RUN TO KEEP THE BERMS UP DUE
TO THE STORM SURGE. BEACH EROSION UNDERWAY AS WELL.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 201 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AKDT THU NIGHT.

MODERATE SURF IN ZONE 204 TODAY AND TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR ICE
SHOVE ONSHORE HAS LESSENED DUE TO WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST NOT BEING AS STRONG AND THE WIND DIRECTION
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE.

MODERATE SURF IN ZONE 207 TODAY. SATURDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HIGH SURF AND WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMDITIY VALUES EXPECTED. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP FRI
AND SAT...EXCEPT DECREASED CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RAINFALL EVENT IS TAPERING OFF. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST.
WHEREIN...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN TENTH OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED.

THE 0.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
24 HRS IN THE CHENA...CHATANIKA...AND SALCHA RIVER BASINS HAS
RESULTED IN RISES IN RIVER LEVELS. RISES ARE MORE APPERICIABLE IN
THE CHENA RIVER WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
THE FAIRBANKS UPLANDS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. AS SUCH...THE CHENA
RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS AND THE CHENA RIVER NEAR CHENA LAKES AT THE
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CREST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
SPECIFICALLY 20.3 FEET TONIGHT AND 24.9 FEET FRIDAY
MORNING...RESPECTIVELY. ELSEHWHERE...THE CHENA RIVER AT HUNTS
CREEK AND THE CHENA RIVER AT FAIRBANKS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...A PILOT REPORTED HIGH AND RAPIDLY
MOVING WATER IN NEARBY STREAMS AND CREEKS TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE.
FURTHER REPORTS HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OF RISING
WATER LEVELS IN THE SOUTH FORK OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER NEAR
NIKOLAI. AS SUCH...A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THERE THAT
INCLUDES OTHER NEARBY SMALL STREAMS OR CREEKS. WATER LEVELS WILL
FALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ202.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

AUG 15



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