Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 032129
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
OUT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER CENTERED JUST WEST OF GALENA WILL
MOVE TO JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE ALASKA
INTERIOR SATURDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND TO FORT YUKON TO YAKUTAT AND SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES TO NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ZONES AND
BROOKS RANGE...AND ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. INSTABILITY
IS ON THE LOW END SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPOTTY. NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN... WESTERN...AND
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AREAS.

A COOLER AIRMASS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHWARD. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER ALL OF THE WEST COAST...
WESTERN INTERIOR...AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
MONDAY...AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY. WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS...ONGOING FIRES WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AFTER THE SHORTER DURATION FUELS DRY OUT. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF
25-30 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS CRESTED AT ABOUT 1.5 FEET BELOW
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW CRESTING NEAR HUNTS
CREEK. THE CREST WILL BE MOVING DOWNSTREAM...WITH NO FLOODING
EXPECTED ON THE LOWER REACHES OF THE RIVER. THE SALCHA RIVER AT
THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY BRIDGE WILL LIKELY CREST LATER TODAY AT
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 FEET BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE GOODPASTER RIVER
HAS FALLEN ABOUT 2 FEET FROM ITS CREST 0.5 FEET BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE YESTERDAY MORNING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN DENALI PARK
HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

&&

$$

RF JUL 15



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