Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 220910
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 AM AKDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER AIR...
OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR...A LIGHT MAINLY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
SAT...MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ON A WOBBLY TRACK TO THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST BY SUN NIGHT.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 170W OVER THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY SAT NIGHT
WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT.

SURFACE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC OCEAN EXTENDS FROM 82N/148E
SOUTHWARD TO THE RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 70N/164E. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM A NEW 1003 MB LOW NEAR 79N/171 W
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR WAINWRIGHT BY SAT AFTERNOON. BY SUN AFTERNOON
THE LOW CENTER WILL BE 600 MILES NORTH OF BARROW. A 1022 MB HIGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA COAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING TO A BROAD 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA BY SUN AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSISTING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO INDICATE A MORE DYNAMIC
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A VERY STRONG POLAR VORTEX ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH IN THE INTERIOR EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14


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