Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 301300
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...BROAD TROUGH FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT THEN REFORM BY THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH
OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC DIGS SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OVERING THE BERING SEA TO WEAKEN SOME
ON THU AND SHIFT WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WILL SPREAD EAST
TODAY AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. 1004 MB LOW 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR BARTER ISLAND 4PM TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATES. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 1008 MB ALONG THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC
COAST WILL MOVE TO NEAR BARROW WED AM AT 1012 MB...THEN TO 100
MILES NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND 4AM THU. 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH WED THEN MOVE TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THU.

MODELS...AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN POSITION OF THE
LOWS MOVING ALONG IN THE ARCTIC...WHERE THERE IS VARIANCE IS IN
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW...THOUGH IT IS WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT MAKE MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE. IN THE MEDIUM TERM MODELS AGREE FAIRLY CLOSE
THROUGH MON AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE DIMINISHING
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORHTERN
ARCTIC COAST TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROLONGED SURF CONCERNS. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. THE NEXT LOW MOVING ACROSS ON
WED AND THU MAY BRING SURF UP AGAIN THOUGH THE FEATURE IS MOVING
FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS LOW. WITH THE
CURRENT LOW AND THE NEXT LOW MOVING ALONG NORTH OF THE
COAST...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH AMOUNTS ENHANCED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WESTERN ALASKA...WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COASTLINE ARE
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. WITH INCOMING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA THU IT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW WED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...MOVING TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA...MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...AND
NULATO HILLS ON THU.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ATIGUN
PASS TO FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADA BORDER BY
4PM TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW COULD OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. SOME RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING
OVER THE FAR UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE DUE
TO THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. ON THU THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
WHICH WILL HELP SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

JL SEP 14



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