Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 232150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MID
TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. NUDGED CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM12...GFS AND ECMWF AND 50 PERCENT CONTINUITY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 500 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA CONTINUES
TO EDGE TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN A NOW WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
EAST FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE SPINS OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA AND WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 984 MB LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ON
SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE YK DELTA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK
DELTA.

SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SMALL CRAFT WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY IN THE BERING SEA WILL
GENERATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. LATEST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CREATE MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN KOTZEBUE
SOUND SO THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF HAS DIMINISHED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 211...212...213
AND 214. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE 25 MPH TO 35 MPH
RANGE WILL CREATE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE AS 6
TO 8 FOOT WAVES BREAK NEAR SHORE. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTON BAY WHERE UP TO A 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



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