Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 301430 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
629 AM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SEA STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SPREADING INTO THE INNER
CHANNELS NEAR ICY STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT AND SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE YAKUTAT AND CROSS SOUND AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING AREAS OF
FOG WITH YAKUTAT UNDER A DENSE FOG ADVY THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE INNER
CHANNELS BUT REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH WNW SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH NOT MUCH
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON THIS MORNING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE TO THE SE AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE CLAP OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND MAY GIVE
THE JUNEAU PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE THE HYDER AREA WHERE THE
OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA IS SPINNING VORT
LOBES AND WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
AGAIN A POSSIBLE CLAP OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGING TO
NEAR 60 FOR PLACES UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

NOT MUCH WIND WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME ENHANCED WINDS NEAR CROSS SOUND WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. ICY STRAIT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE 15 TO 20
KT FROM THE WEST AND LYNN CANAL WILL SEE THE NORTH WINDS THIS
MORNING SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND RANGE FROM 10 KT IN NORTHERN LYNN
TO 15 KT IN SOUTHERN LYNN. LAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE
SET UP IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS
UP. THE SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO LIMIT SOME OF THE HIGH TEMPS NEAR
WATER LOCATIONS.

THE SEA STRATUS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL MOVE BACK INTO
LOCATION OF THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN MAINLY IN
AREAS THAT SAW IT THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WEST WINDS THE LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT THEN
THEY LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A
BLEND OF THE EC AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM.../ CORRECTED / MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO BE PAYING CLOSER
ATTENTION TO TRY AND DISCERN THE CHANGES FOR A PROPER MODEL PICK
AS THE DRY PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WET ONE BY WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK DRY ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
A FEW CAVEATS. THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL STILL BE
PUSHED TOWARDS THE OUTER COAST AND ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS..HOWEVER WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHWESTERLY... THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE
BEING FORCED OUT OF THE SOME OF THE STRATUS DECKS IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS IT LIFTS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM 20 TO 15 KT HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET OR LESS AS WELL WHICH IS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

THE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO A WET
PATTERN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. STARTING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND THEN SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
THE SOUTHERN LOOKS TO STAY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

MARINE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN GULF LIKELY TO BE FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. KNOWING HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL SPREAD
WILL BE AFFECTING TEMPERATURE AND TO A DEGREE SOME WIND
VECTORS TOO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

$$

ABJ/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








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