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FXAK67 PAJK 191413

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Dry weather and mostly sunny skies will pervade
Southeast today. Satellite and radar imagery indicate that a
northeast to east flow pattern has pushed low level
showers/convection offshore, holding it off the coast early this
morning. Wind will blow primarily 15 kt or less for the panhandle
although a few areas have some gustier winds. Lynn canal, being
one of those places, can expect 20 to 25 kt early before relaxing
later this morning, though I expect winds in the Canal to start
increasing late tonight again up to 20 kt at least.

Moisture over the Southern British Columbia Coast will move
northward and start to spread into the Misty Fjord area late

With mostly clear skies expected tonight expect temperatures to
cool again with the radiative cooling dropping lows a couple
degrees cooler than Saturday night. With the drier weather am not
expecting a large fog threat across the panhandle.

.LONG TERM...While we may hither and dither over weather makers
for the week, the weather adjective of the week will be "dry,"
even if we have to hedge with the adverb "mainly." Offshore flow
in the low levels Monday will gradually back to westerly onshore
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a short-wave in the gulf. Thus
the best chance of snow with some rain will be along the
coastline. However, we have added a slight chance of snow for
much of the north central interior Panhandle with this Tuesday
system. More than likely, people here will see more clouds than
flurries Tuesday given a negatively tilted trough. At this stage,
we see only super light amounts. Offshore, this shortwave will be
responsible for the formation of a tight but weak low moving
eastward across the northern gulf. We have raised wind speeds for
this area to 20 kt, but some models suggest a band of 25 kt on its
southern edge. Gradients will continue to lighten over the
greater Panhandle through Tuesday, but the northerly direction
will persist.

Another short-wave will be driven northeastward across the western
gulf to reach the central gulf by Wednesday afternoon. Our current
general forecast responds with a chance of rain preceding the
system, and this makes sense. However, trends seem to be holding
this system`s track Wednesday night to our south, potentially
bypassing the Panhandle without ever having produced a flake or a
drop on our shores. Once this system passes through or bypasses
Southeast Alaska, ensembles strongly support a ridge to build over
the gulf to our west. This should set the stage for a rebound of
temperatures ahead of a weekend system strong enough to flatten
the ridge and likely spread rain with some snow across the
Panhandle early this weekend. But before then, Southeast Alaska
will remain mainly dry but seasonable for temperatures.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042.



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