Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 280802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Coastal storm intensifying along the New England coastline will
continue to track away from the region today. Brisk conditions are
expected with rain and snow showers slowly subsiding. High
pressure will briefly move into the region tonight before more
unsettled weather returns for the weekend with clouds and more
chances for rain. Looking ahead into early next week, improving
weather and a return to seasonable temperatures.


As of 345 AM...Per the H2O vapor loop, the center of this upper
low was near KSYR with one more pv-anomaly rounding the base of
the low along the NY/PA stateline. Meanwhile, surface low has
redeveloped over southern New England and per the 3-hr isallobaricdrops,
this low should continue to deepen and track ENE then NE through
the day. As that aforementioned wave approaches the coastline, the
low should intensify as it pulls away from the region. This will
do a couple of things for our region, a decreasing coverage in
precipitation with subsidence and tighten the surface pressure
gradient for gusty winds to evolve through the day. A closer look
at regional radar trends, most of the activity was across the
higher terrain and per the HRRR/HRRR-X, this will be the case
through most of the morning and into early afternoon. Portions of
the Taconics, northern Berkshires and southern Vermont will likely
linger a bit longer with the precipitation with favored upslope
conditions and closer proximity to the departing low. As for
precipitation types, temperatures have been holding nearly steady
or ever so slightly climbing this early Friday morning. However,
H850 temperatures are expected to drop back below 0C across the
entire region by this afternoon. So the higher terrain will likely
experience a mix or just plain snow showers with valley locations
likely holding onto the chance for rain showers. MOS values might
be a little warm as we will shade toward the latest LAV/LAMP
values which are a couple degrees cooler. Some breaks in the
overcast are expected for the Mid-Hudson Valley as northwest winds
should enhance downsloping for allowing breaks to evolve.


A rather unsettled period of weather into the weekend as a frontal
boundary becomes quasi-stationary and increasing baroclinicity and
weak impulses in the zonal flow bringing about chances of

Friday night...A brief break in the action as a narrow ridge of
high pressure moves across the region. Wavelength between systems
is rather short as we will likely see impacts from the upstream
system in the forms of increasing clouds occur overnight. Should
not be as chilly due to the cloud coverage increasing as lows
should average into the 30s for most of the region. Warm advection
and isentropic lift increase toward sunrise across portions of the
western Adirondacks as we will keep the chance PoPs in place with
some light snow possible.

Saturday...We find ourselves within a warm sector as H850
temperatures warm back to well above 0C. However, moisture
profiles quickly increase as well with increasing isentropic lift
and lowering condensation pressure deficits. So it will be milder
than the past couple of days as any precipitation we see will be
in the form of light rain and/or drizzle. As noted in previous
forecast shifts, a region of instability is seen in the Showalter
Index with below 0C values coming across Lake Erie and into
southwest NY State. Those values climb as it approaches the
Catskills and Mid-Hudson Valley Saturday afternoon as we will
continue to withhold the mention of thunder in the grids (but
something we will of course continue to monitor).

Saturday night...Frontal boundary will be quasi-stationary across
the southern portions of the region as the surface flow becomes
nearly parallel to the flow aloft. This zonal flow aloft will
likely keep the clouds in place but not much of triggers seen
aloft as we will decrease PoPs back to slight chance for light
rain and/or drizzle. Should be a milder night with lows between 45
and 55 degrees (cooler across the Adirondacks).

Sunday...Following the 1.5PVU surface, our next wave was just
coming ashore across central California. Due to a strong upper
level jet (greater than 100kts), this wave will quickly track
northeast across the intermountain west then out onto the Plains
which moves it into the Great Lakes Region Sunday morning. General
model consensus favors an increase in overall QG lift along the
baroclinic zone for bands of light rain to move across the region
from later Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. As there is
still some discrepancy where these bands of rain will evolve, and
per coordination, we will keep PoPs just below likely values at
this time.


A departing frontal boundary and upper level disturbance may allow
for some lingering rain or snow showers Sunday evening, but clearing
looks to occur by late Sunday night, as the front exits to the east
and high pressure starts to build in from the Great Lakes. Lows look
to fall into the mid to upper 30s for most spots, although some
upper 20s to low 30s are possible for the Adirondacks, Catskills and
southern Green Mountains.

With high pressure overhead, Halloween looks to be free of spooky
weather, with a mostly sunny sky, a light wind and cool
temperatures. 850 hpa temps of 2 to 4 degrees C will only allow max
temps to reach the 40s for most spots, although the mid-Hudson
Valley may see some low to mid 50s.

Dry weather look to continue for Monday night into Tuesday as high
pressure slowly moves east of the area.  With a southerly return
flow, it looks warmer for the mid-week period, with highs reaching
into the 50s for Tuesday, with a partly cloudy sky.

An upper level disturbance and frontal boundary will be sliding by
to the north of the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Moisture appears to be limited, so the threat for any isolated to
scattered rain showers will be across the Adirondacks, with dry
weather for the remainder of the region. Strong sw flow ahead of
this system will allow for mild weather, with overnight lows only
falling into the 40s for Tuesday night. Highs on Wednesday look to
reach the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the warmest temps for the Hudson
Valley region.

Another frontal boundary looks to approach from the Great Lakes for
Thursday into Thursday night.  This looks to bring a better chance
of rain showers to the region than the last system, although
northern areas will have the best shot once again. Temps look
continue mild ahead of this front as well despite the clouds and
possible precip, with mid to upper 50s for valley areas on Thursday.
More seasonable weather is expected to return for Friday.


Latest KENX radar shows the back edge of the precipitation will be
moving across the region over the next few hours. Will allow for
some lingering rain for the next hour or two for KGFL/KALB/KPSF,
but any precip should be over by around 08z-09z. Before then,
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely to occur for both vsbys/cigs, with
rain and mist in place. Temps will remain warm enough for any
precip to just be liquid rainfall.

Behind the back edge of the precip, winds will switch to a west-
northwest direction and increase in strength. This should allow
for any IFR conditions to end as ceiling rise somewhat and any
fog/mist dissipates. Still, will allow for MVFR conditions through
at least sunrise due to lingering lower stratus clouds.

VFR conditions look to return to the valley sites by 12z-14z,
although ceiling will continue to be bkn-ovc at 3500-5000 ft
throughout the entire day. Meanwhile, upslope flow looks to keep
MVFR conditions at KPSF through the day with cigs at 2-3 kft.
Behind the departing storm, a decent pressure gradient will allow
for west to northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts, with some gusts of
20-25 kts possible, especially for KALB. It should remain dry for
the taf sites, so will not include any showers in the forecast for
during the day Friday.

With lingering low-level moisture, will allow for some MVFR
conditions to return to KGFL/KALB/KPSF for Friday night with
decreasing winds. Model soundings suggest skies should start to
clear out at KPOU for Friday night.


Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


As snow cover and wet conditions have been observed, fire weather
related concerns are low to none across the region. Additional
chances for rainfall are in the forecast this weekend as well.


Precipitation will be diminishing across the region through the
day with additional amounts generally a tenth of an inch or less.

Another system will bring light rainfall amounts Saturday into
Saturday night of generally a quarter of an inch or less.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our


A new record snowfall occurred at Albany International Airport on
Thursday. See RERALB for further details. Just 10 days ago we had
record high temperature of 84 degrees.




LONG TERM...Frugis
CLIMATE...BGM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.