Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 240527
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1227 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Wet and dreary weather will continue into tonight. It will be
milder and mainly dry on Saturday, however another round of
mixed precipitation and rain is expected Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EST...An occluded front was starting to move
across the region from west to east. While the steady
precipitation has ended across the region pockets of very light
precipitation remain across the region. The 00z KALY sounding
shows plenty of low-level moisture trapped beneath a very strong
inversion, so clouds look to hold in place into the overnight
hours.

Temperatures should remain steady or may actually come up a
couple of degrees overnight as the gradual shift of the low
level winds to westerly will scour out some of the lingering
colder near-surface air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday as higher pressure
builds in along with above normal temperatures, nothing like
earlier in the week, with highs in the upper 30s to around 50
degrees.

Another round precipitation expected Saturday night and Sunday
as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the region.
Overrunning precipitation is expected to overspread the area
Saturday night mainly after midnight as the system`s warm front
approaches. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s
to upper 30s Saturday evening setting the stage for mixed
precipitation. A wintry mix is expected mainly across the higher
terrain, generally above 1000 feet, eventually transitioning to
plain rain Sunday morning. Before this occur a light accumulation
of snow and/or sleet is expected generally north of I-90. A
period of freezing rain is expected Sunday morning across the
higher terrain with a light ice accretion. A winter weather
advisory will likely be needed. A changeover to plain rain is
expected Sunday morning with rain continue well into the afternoon
as the system occludes as it moves across the area. Runoff
would result in some river rises and could cause movement of ice
jams. If confidence for flooding increases then a flood watch
and/or hydrologic advisory will need to be issued.

East to southeast flow ahead of the approaching system will
increase and become gusty late Saturday night into Sunday across
southern Vermont, the Berkshires, the Taconics, western
Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and the Schoharie Valley.

Higher pressure will build in at the surface behind the system
with the flow aloft flattening resulting in continued above
normal temperatures. With the help of sunshine on Monday expecting
highs mainly 40s across the area with lower 50s in the mid
Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be in control at the start of the extended
period, but will be departing off the coast of the mid-Atlantic
States during the midweek period.  Although there continues to be
some timing differences within the model and ensemble guidance, dry
and quiet weather is expected for at least Tuesday into Tuesday
night (and probably through Wednesday as well). With a southerly
flow in place, above normal temperatures are expected, with highs on
Tuesday mainly in the 40s and lows on Tuesday night in the mid 20s
to mid 30s.  Highs on Wednesday should reach the mid 40s to mid 50s,
with increasing clouds.

The next system will be approaching from the southwest, although its
still difficult to say how quickly it moves in and just how much
precip is expected. The track and evolution of this storm is still
unknown, as its possible that the initial storm system cuts off over
the Great Lakes and a new storm forms along the mid-Atlantic
coastline.

Based on the model guidance, our area could be seeing some light
precipitation as early as Wednesday night if the GFS is correct or
perhaps as late as Thursday or Thursday night (based on some
ensemble solutions and the 12z GGEM). The 12z ECMWF even suggests
that the storm never makes it this far north, as the majority of the
moisture gets shunted to the south of the region as well as the
reformed storm system slides eastward offshore.

If the GFS is correct, p-type would primarily be light rain,
although some light snow or mixed precip is possible for both the
onset and ending of the storm, mainly for the high terrain and
northern areas.  The other models and some ensemble solutions would
suggest the possibility of some snow across the area, so it will
ultimately depend on storm track.  For now, have kept temps closer
to the model blend guidance, which suggest highs on Thurs/Fri in the
30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s, although these could be
lower depending on the exact storm track and evolution.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An occluded front will sweep across the TAF sites before
daybreak. Weak high pressure will build across for Saturday,
before a developing storm system over the southern Plains tracks
northeast into the Great Lakes region for Saturday night into
Sunday.

IFR/LIFR conditions, mainly Cigs, are expected to slowly
improve to MVFR between 07Z-10Z/Sat, as winds switch to the
west. However, it may take until mid to late morning Saturday
for ceilings to return to VFR levels, as winds switch to the
W-NW and increase to around 10-15 kts (a few higher gusts
possible at KALB/KPSF up to 20-25 KT) and ceilings return to
around 3500 ft.

Mainly VFR conditions are then expected for Saturday afternoon
and evening. Winds will decrease, and veer from the northwest
into the north to northeast at 5-10 KT, decreasing to less than
8 KT after sunset.

Some light rain may develop at KPOU after 19Z/Sat, as an upper
level disturbance passes south of the region. Despite light
rain, generally VFR conditions are expected.

Low level wind shear will remain likely through daybreak, as
surface winds remain fairly light from the southwest to west at
less than 8 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL become west to
northwest and increase to 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...SLEET.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood waters have receded and the flood warning and advisories
were cancelled earlier today. Ice jams remain in place on multiple
locations on the Mohawk River from about Lock 9 through the Twin
Bridges and on the upper Hudson River in central Warren County.

Precipitation will be light through this evening with mainly
dry weather into Saturday evening. However, widespread precipitation
will overspread the area Saturday night and continue most of
Sunday as another low pressure system approaches and moves across
the region. A wintry mix is expected mainly across the higher
terrain, generally above 1000 feet, eventually transitioning to
plain rain Sunday morning. At this time QPF amounts of about an
inch are expected. Temperatures will be above normal Saturday
but only expecting highs in the upper 30s to about 50 degrees
with temperatures dropping back into the upper 20s to upper 30s
Saturday night which will limit snowmelt. Runoff would result in
some river rises and could cause movement of ice jams. If
confidence for flooding increases then a flood watch and/or
hydrologic advisory will need to be issued.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11/Thompson
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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