Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 121518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS MORNING PLUMMETED ACROSS
THE REGION WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE JUST A PREVIEW OF EVEN MORE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TO SEE HOW COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PLEASE REFER TO
OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TUGHILL PLATEAU
ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS SOME SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE BAND MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
AT KPSF SHORTLY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS


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