Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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909
FXUS61 KALY 201944
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
344 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose
will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will
gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for
eastern New York and western New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 344 PM EDT...Mainly high level cirrus clouds along the
extreme northwest periphery of Tropical Storm Jose still
encompassing much of the area, although clouds are thin enough
in spots for some partial sunshine. Lower stratus clouds were
continuing to affect areas south and east of Albany, although
these clouds have thinned compared to earlier in the day.

A northerly breeze around 5-15 mph persisting into tonight, so
fog formation expected to be limited. Areas to the north and
west of Albany may have some patchy fog if winds decouple and
clouds thin out enough. Temperatures will once again be above
normal tonight due to warm air mass in place along with some
clouds and a breeze in most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stationary ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft
will dominate our weather through the entire short term period
from Thursday through Saturday. Tropical Storm Jose will start
to stall on Thursday near the 40/70 lat/lon intersection over
the Atlantic Ocean and then slowly retrograde to the west and
weaken. We will continue to not expect any impacts in our area
from Jose.

The main story will be continued summer-like temperatures,
although overnight lows will be slightly cooler than they would
be in the middle of the summer due to longer length of night-
time. Patchy fog will be possible in favored locations near
bodies of water each and could affect daytime temperatures
depending on how long it takes for fog to dissipate. There may
be some patches of clouds across eastern areas from time to time
as Jose wobbles westward, but otherwise abundant sunshine is
expected. High temps Thursday through Saturday will generally be
in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With Hurricane Maria expected to take a similar path as Jose up
the western Atlantic, we will continue to experience high
pressure and subsidence, resulting in unseasonably warm
temperatures and dry conditions, with high readings Sunday
starting out in the near- record territory of upper 70 to upper
80s. With calm nights expected Sunday night, the high peaks will
cool nicely, and highs on Monday will be noticeably cooler
there on Monday. This will start an overall trend to gradually
cooler conditions, but even by Wednesday, highs will still be in
the well-above-normal around 70 to around 80 degree range.

As far as precipitation goes, the only fly in the ointment
might be Wednesday when a backdoor cold front slips south across
the northern portions of New York and New England, possibly,
but more unlikely, setting off some light shower activity in the
northern Adirondacks and extreme southeastern Vermont. In any
case, this will be the cloudiest period of the extended, but
sunshine will be abundant through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the most part, looking at VFR conditions through the
period. However, there are exceptions. To start MVFR ceilings
currently in place at KPSF and KPOU. Not expecting this to
change much into tonight. Presence of lower clouds and breeze
should preclude development of IFR BR/FG at these sites. KGFL
should see least clouds and winds trending to calm overnight.
These conditions look favorable for development of typical
autumn IFR FG. Finally a light breeze at KALB through the night
should maintain VFR conditions.

All terminals should be VFR by 14-15Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Jose
will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and will
gradually weaken over the next several days with no impacts for
eastern New York and western New England.

Relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent
tonight, then decrease to minimum values of 40 to 50 percent
Thursday afternoon. RH values Thursday night will increase to
between 80 and 100 percent.

Winds tonight through Thursday night will be northerly around 5
to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
into next week as high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV



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