Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240214
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
914 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from a few passing snow showers and flurries over
the western and central Adirondacks, it will be another dry and
chilly night tonight across the region. Temperatures will moderate
tomorrow with a mostly sunny sky, before an approaching cold front
returns the chance for some showers on Saturday. It will turn colder
again on Sunday with some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
For this update had to lower temperatures slightly as
temperatures fell quickly this evening in some areas but are
expected to level off as mid and high clouds overspread the
area.

IR satellite imagery continues to show plenty of mid and high
level clouds across much of the region, with just far southern
areas seeing any appreciable clearing. Through the evening
will expect these clouds to continue, although skies should
start to clear out for later tonight, as the shortwave continues
to slide eastward and away from the region.

In the wake of the shortwave, the low to mid level flow aligns
itself enough to allow for a brief lake response off Lake
Ontario. Temps aloft are marginal and inversion heights don`t
get too high, but the combination of the cyclonic flow, shallow
lake moisture and upslope should allow for some light snow
showers and flurries over the western and central Adirondacks.
Most areas around Old Forge, Raquette Lake and Blue Mountain
Lake will see just a coating, although up to an inch is
possible (mainly for the woods in far northern Herkimer and
northwestern Hamilton Counties).

Lows temps look to generally fall into the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and quiet weather is expected for Friday, as the upper level
flow flattens out and surface high pressure is situated south
and east of the region. Skies should be mostly sunny and with a
milder southwest flow aloft, temps will be warmer than recent
days, with highs reaching the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Although the next system looks to be approaching from the Great
Lakes, it should remain dry through Friday night, although sky
cover will be increasing with a light south to southwest wind
in place. This should keep temps from getting as chilly as
recent nights, with lows in the 30s, and temps may even hold
steady or start to rise towards daybreak Saturday.

A low pressure area will be sliding by well to the north on
Saturday, but the storm`s cold front will be crossing the
region. This will be another northern stream system, so moisture
looks limited once again, but some scattered rain showers should
accompany the boundary. Not everywhere will see showers and in
those places that do, amounts look fairly light. Both boundary
layer temps and temps aloft warm enough ahead of this system, so
any precip should be liquid rain ahead of the cold frontal
passage, with high temps in the upper 30s to upper 40s once
again. The front should be through the region from west to east
between the late morning and mid-afternoon hours, although the
upper level trough will be passing over the region for Saturday
evening into Saturday night.

As temps cool quickly behind the front, some lake effect or
lake enhanced snow showers will develop for late Saturday and
especially Saturday night, especially for the Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley, as 850 hpa temps crash to -10 to -14 degrees C
over that area. A light accumulation is possible for these
areas. Some upslope snow showers are also possible for southern
VT as well.  Low temps will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s
across the region, with the coldest temps over the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By 12z Sunday, an neutrally tilted upper level shortwave will be
traversing through the Northeast and becoming slightly negatively
tilted as it enters into New England. Strong northwest winds will
kick in as the trough axis and associated baroclinic zone passes
through Sunday morning leading to strong cold air advection and some
flurries/snow showers. Lack of moisture with the trough axis should
limit most snow accumulations to generally less than 0.5" in the
Adirondacks. With H850 isotherms falling to -8 to -11C, we can
expect a chilly and breezy day with wind gusts ranging 25 to 35mph
and temperatures generally remaining in the 30s.

Brief ridging builds in behind the trough by Sunday afternoon,
likely ending the snow shower threat. However, another shortwave and
Alberta clipper type system will arrive Sunday night bringing
another minor threat for snow. Most of the 12z/18z model suite
suggests the clipper will track through northern New England with
its southern fringe brushing out northern counties. Have reflected
this thinking in the current forecast package with the highest POPS
in the Adirondacks and slight to low chance POPs in Lake
George/Saratoga regions. Again, moisture will be lacking so most
accumulations should be less than 0.5." However, given that the cold
air associated with this clipper and overnight lows falling into the
20s, snow ratios could be a bit higher than normal, around 13 to 1.

Most snow should wrap up by Monday morning as our clipper exits and
high pressure noses back into the region. The pressure gradient in
between the two system should lead to another breezy day with
seasonable temperatures. A warm front crosses the area Tuesday
leading to increased cloud coverage but lack of moisture should keep
most areas dry. As winds back to the southwest in the wake of the
warm front, we should see temperatures warm above normal into the
upper 40s to low 50s for Tuesday (about 5 - 10 degrees above normal).

Our next threat for precipitation arrives Wednesday with a cold
front. Given mild temperatures ahead of the front, most should see
rain with this system outside of the higher elevations of the Dacks
with perhaps some mixing as the system exits. High pressure then
returns for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build east of our region through
Friday morning.  There will be some intervals of mid and high clouds
but conditions are expected to remain VFR through the period.

The winds will be light and variable at 7 kts or less through
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Aside from a few light snow showers or flurries over the
Adirondacks, mainly dry weather is expected tonight into
tomorrow. The next chance of some rain showers will be on
Saturday, but activity will be fairly light and spotty.

RH values will return to 75 to 100 percent tonight. RH values
will only fall to 50 to 70 percent on tomorrow afternoon and 60
to 80 percent on Saturday. South to southwest winds will be 5 to
15 mph tonight through Saturday morning and switch to the west
around 5 to 15 mph for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week.

Aside from a few passing light lake effect snow showers or
flurries over the western and central Adirondacks this evening
into tonight, mainly dry weather is expected through Friday
night. A passing cold front may bring some light rain showers to
the area on Saturday, possibly mixed with snow over the
Adirondacks. There may be some additional lake-effect snow
showers again for western areas on Sunday, otherwise, mainly dry
weather is expected to end the weekend into early next week.
This light precipitation will have little to no impact on rivers
and streams. As a result, river and stream levels will
generally hold steady. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable
through early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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