Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 150859
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
E/SE...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB...ALONG WITH
LAKE MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH
BELOW 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POCKETS OF
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S.

BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVERAGE...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED THE FROST ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN TACT FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SINCE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING E/SE...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES AROUND DAYBREAK.
FURTHER N...PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OCCASIONAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S BUT A FEW POCKETS OF MID
30S COULD STILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN NW AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHILE BECOMING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KPOU. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KALB AND KPSF AND
AS A RESULT WILL NOT FORECAST FOG FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. AT KGFL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z WITH FOG PRESENT AT TIMES
BTWN 08Z AND 11Z RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. KPOU WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN AT THIS SITE LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING RAIN TO THE TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z MON.

CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/SND






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