Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 200559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE WORKED INTO THE AREA. IFR
11.9U-3.9U INDICATED THAT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS HAVE FORMED AS
WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN PA.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING A LITTLE...AND WILL DO SO OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...WE BELIEVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND THEREFORE WE DID THAT
WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING THE
CLOUD GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 NORTH AND WELL EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







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