Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF


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