Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Another mild day today with high pressure dominating our
weather. Our dry weather will gradually come to an end late
Monday night into Tuesday as a low moves northward up the east
coast bringing rain to the region into mid week.


The weak cold front is located across the region and its located
is defined mainly by dew point temperatures with lower values to
the north of the boundary. It`s stretched across the local area
south of Glens Falls but north of the Capital District. Winds
are calm across most of the area and we have some high this
cirrus streaming across the southern portion of the area.

A cut-off upper low is over Alabama/Georgia with a surface low
over Georgia near the coast. The thick cirrus shield associated
with this feature extends northward across the DELMARVA region.
Our area is within a narrow region of confluence between the
two and should result in mainly clear skies overnight with
seasonable lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


Monday we will see an increase in mainly higher level clouds as
weak frontal zone to our north stalls just north of our
Adirondack Region and southeast CONUS upper and surface lows
slowly track up the eastern seaboard. So filtered sunshine as
temperatures should return back into the 60s for many locations
with cooler 50s near the frontal zone across the northern Dacks
within our CWA.

Overall model consensus continues to favor the main culprit to
our weather pattern will be the southeast CONUS low which will
track northward along the seaboard. The first shot of isentropic
lift arrives overnight Monday with the NAM the most pronounced.
So we will increase PoPs through the overnight period from south
to north. Then through Tuesday, a rather damp day as couple
waves of isentropic lift transverses the region with periods of
light rain and/or drizzle unfolds across a good portion of the
region. Due to the cloud coverage and precipitation,
temperatures will tough to climb into the middle 50s.

Tuesday night, vertically stacked low approaches as southeast
low level wind field increases. This will increase moisture
entrainment from the Atlantic where additional light rainfall is
expected. During the overnight, theta-e fields and deformation
axis begin to line up for the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA
overnight into Wednesday where we will keep PoPs rather high. A
further examination of the forecast soundings indicate we begin
to lose the mid level moisture fields from west to east while
low level shear and lift continue. So we will introduce some
drizzle to the forecast/grids. Temperatures should remain rather
cool with the unsettled conditions as highs Tuesday afternoon
range from 55F to 65F.


Active Pacific jet will carve out a deep time-mean longwave trough
over the western CONUS. Downstream, deamplifying waves emanating
from this trough will battle a building ridge centered across the
Southeastern US. Model consensus favors positive upper height
anomalies over the eastern third of the US, so above-normal
temperatures are favored during the long-term period.

On Wednesday night, model consensus depicts a compact cutoff low
moving northeastward a little ways off the New England coastline.
Some remnant moisture and showers from this wave may still be
impacting southern New England Wednesday night. The wave will
quickly exit the area as shortwave ridging and warm southerly flow
builds into New York for Thursday. Then, attention turns to a
surface low tracking north-northeast through the western Great Lakes
as the longwave trough attempts to expand eastward. Model consensus
keeps us in the warm sector and delays shower/storm chances until
the Thursday night. ECMWF stalls the front out into Friday over our
region, so have kept chance PoPs in place for this scenario.

For the weekend, models try to expand the strong anticyclone
centered over the Southeastern US northward, while a deep upper low
sets up over the Intermountain West. Moisture return in between
these systems looks to result in a large west-east band of precip
along a warm front. The position of this front looks to be the key
for precipitation chances, as the eastward extend of it will be
nearby, but encountering surface and upper ridging over the
Northeast. For now, put low chance pops in the forecast both
Saturday and Sunday, reflecting latest model consensus.


VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period.
MOS guidance depicts possibility of light fog at KPOU toward
12Z, but overall dryness of the atmosphere and expected low
temps above crossover temp are negating factors, so will omit
fog mention and continue to monitor trends. Otherwise, high
clouds will gradually increase and thicken from the south
through the TAF period as a low pressure system approaches up
the coast.

Calm winds for the remainder of the night. Light and variable
winds during the day today. Calm winds tonight.


Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA...DZ.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...DZ.
Wednesday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.


Low relative humidity values Monday afternoon...

Dry weather tonight into Monday night as high pressure
dominates the region. Chances for rain will be on the increase
late Monday night into Tuesday morning as coastal low moves up
the east coast. A widespread rainfall is expected for much of
the area Tuesday into Tuesday night which may linger into

Minimum relative humidity values will recover to 80 to 95
percent tonight. Minimums Monday afternoon are expected to be in
mainly the 30s.

Winds will be light at less 10 mph tonight and Monday.


Dry weather into most of Monday night as high pressure
dominates. Chances for rain will be on the increase late Monday
night into Tuesday morning as coastal storm moves up the east
coast. A widespread rainfall is expected for much of the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night which may linger into Wednesday. At
this time, QPF amounts are anticipated to range from about a
quarter of an inch to around three-quarters of an inch across
the forecast area from northwest to southeast. A brief break in
the wet weather is expected before cold front sweeps through
Thursday night bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.




LONG TERM...ELH/Thompson/JVM/Speciale
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