Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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756
FXUS63 KBIS 131551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z...AS
MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW WHERE THERE
HAVE BEEN LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS. THINKING REMAINS THE SAME ON
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS WE ENTER A HOLDING PATTERN...WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
UPDATE.

THE FULL 00 AND 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE
08-11 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL...A
CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS GREATER QPF THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS. OBSERVED TRENDS
ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THE 12 UTC SUITE WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY EVALUATED AS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AS DEPICTED
IN 00 AND 06 UTC SUITES. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A WINTRY MIX IN WESTERN ND
AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO
IOWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOWS RANGED FROM 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WERE CURRENTLY AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO. FARTHER WEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR
RISING...WITH TEENS IN THE FAR WEST ALL NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM WILLISTON
AND STANLEY IN THE NORTHWEST TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEFORE NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND NOON IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGHRES MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND +3
TO +5 C. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW...BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL -
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONSENSUS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THUS CONFIDENT ON AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME OF THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER - MAINLY BECAUSE IF THERMAL
PROFILES ARE WARMER/COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z
BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON
SATURDAY 15Z- 23Z IN WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST
WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO
SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z.
WILL BE ANALYZING LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND
KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



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