Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT
PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN AT
03Z...WITH DICKINSON REPORTING 40 DEGREES AND GLEN ULLIN REPORTING
18 DEGREES. SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT POISED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE CHANCES
FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND SWEEPS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS THREAT WITH AN SPS AS ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE MET.

THE LATEST HI-RES ARW...NMM...AND NAM12 PROG PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 7MB/3HR TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 12Z SATURDAY...THEN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 15Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL MIXING EXPECTED...THINK WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...UPDATED THE SATURDAY WINDS TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SCENARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PRECIP TYPES...AND
COVERAGE AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND. RADAR SHOWS
SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST UNDER WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...THOUGH NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW REACHES CENTRAL ND BY 12Z SAT WITH ARCTIC
AIR RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE
GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY TO LIKELY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ND.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE COLD AIR
RAPIDLY CHANGES PRECIP TYPE TO ALL SNOW. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP FOCUSED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 120 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET PLACING THAT REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
JET. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY UNDER
.1 INCH LIQUID. WPC SNOW FORECAST HAS PUSHED BEST MEASURABLE SNOW
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH OUR FORECAST GENERATING ONLY
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
SNOW. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WILL ISSUE SPS TO ADDRESS THE VARIOUS ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST IS COLD TEMPERATURES
AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION. WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WIND CHILLS AROUND 30
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE. SOME RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD SPARK
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM LOOKS RATHER DRY. AN ARCTIC 1040MB HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT/MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WAA TAKES HOLD
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME
MVFR IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT NORTH (KISN-KMOT)...AND SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH
(KDIK-KBIS-KJMS). NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM






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