Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 131339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND THE 11 AND 12 UTC RAP
ITERATIONS SUPPORT THE INGOING DRY AND BREEZY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. BESIDES ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER JET INDUCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AM HOURS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TO OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION 06-12Z TONIGHT. PRESSURE RISES WEST OF THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH...MID LEVEL
ENERGY WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MY EASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY AROUND TO AFTER
00Z.

DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL RESULT IN
CHILLY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. NORMAL LOWS THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ON MONDAY...COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AS WRN LOBE
OF UPPER LOW STARTS ITS EASTWARD SHIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
TEMPS ON ARE STILL LOOKING TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER ERN CWA IN STRONG CYCLONIC
FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST WHILE WRN CONUS RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES EASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM....MODELS TREND TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION.
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD





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