Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 050248
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT KBIS AND
KMOT/ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT AT 1500 FT AGL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS


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