Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 050416 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...FOR
NOW. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE
EASTWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS AN IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW AND INTERACTS WITH A
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH ALABAMA.
THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE SOUTH...BUT
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL CARRY LIKELY
POPS AREAWIDE.

WITH THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS MORE
LIFT PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LIGHT WINDS. CEILINGS MAINLY VFR
THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 827 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE
CONVECTIVE LINE COMING OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...AND A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A MCV OVR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO
NIGHTS...ANY BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING...AND THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS ORGANIZED OR AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
RATHER HIGH. BY MONDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF FINALLY MOVES EAST OF
ALABAMA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. A UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE GFS IS NOW COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK. NEXT
WEEKS PATTERN WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  80  68  86  70 /  60  70  40  40  30
ANNISTON    69  81  68  86  69 /  60  80  40  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  82  69  87  71 /  60  70  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  83  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  82  69  86  71 /  60  70  40  40  30
AUBURN      66  80  69  85  71 /  70  80  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  70  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  40  40  30
TROY        70  84  70  88  71 /  70  80  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.