Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 220831
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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