Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 221146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS WE REACH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND CURRENTLY...SO SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY (LEANING TOWARDS THURSDAY) AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST AND A NICE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS CARVED OUT. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING...WILL ONLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THOSE WILL PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP AT
SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH COMPLETELY
THROUGH...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL TEMPORARILY EXTEND TOWARDS OUR DIRECTION AND WARM
THINGS UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...MOST LIKELY FELT BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR CIGS ARE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. SLOW INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS LEADING ECHOES. THE BETTER FOCUS IS IN GEORGIA GETTING
INTO EASTERN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE OF RAIN
OUT AND ENTERED INTO THE TAFS BASED ON LOCAL TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS
IN HOUSE. MODELS REALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SO WENT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
PERSISTENCE YET WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER LOW CEILING TYPE OF
NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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