Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 231134
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
534 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The surface front that moved through the area on Sunday with a
low circling behind it, is right now near Chattanooga as it
continues to the east toward the Carolinas. Over the past several
hours the low has opened up and the rain is mainly on the backside
and southern side of the low as the Appalachians have introduced
some dry air into it. At the same time, the upper low is spinning
currently over Atlanta. We will continue with rain showers for the
remainder of the overnight hours wrapping around the cold upper
low. Lingering low pops in the northeast this morning, but overall
precipitation is expected to make a quick retreat behind the
exiting low. The big story for today will be the very tight
surface pressure gradients, resulting in strong and gusty winds.
A wind advisory remains in effect through 6 PM for all of Central
Alabama.

Today will feel much cooler with decent cold air advection. Winds
are expected to taper off during the evening as gradients relax
with a short time of ridging and a gladly accepted break from rain
and storms. However, the flow will turn back around very quickly
on Tuesday ahead of another front. However, with little recovery
time for the atmosphere, at this time we are only expecting rain
showers ahead of the next front for Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Behind the front a surface high pressure ridge extending from the
Dakotas to Texas will slide toward the Mississippi River Valley
and into the Deep South. Hello Winter, we missed you. Temperatures
are expected to go back to normal for late January with 50s/30s
for highs/lows respectively for Thursday and on into next weekend
with no rain expected from Thursday through the end of the
forecast.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

MVFR cigs will prevail through the TAF period as low-level
moisture wraps around a low pressure system over Georgia, with
drizzle also continuing this morning. High res guidance indicates
an area of slightly drier air currently near the Mississippi River
moving towards this afternoon which may cause a temporary
scattering of cigs, but expect MVFR to still be the prevailing
condition. NW to WNW winds will gust to 25-30 kts through this
evening, then gradually decrease overnight.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain will be ending by Noon in the Northeast and we will see rain
free conditions for the rest of Monday and Tuesday. Next front on
Wednesday will provide the next chance at rain and cooler
temperatures. No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  36  60  44  64 /  50  10   0  10  30
Anniston    56  37  61  45  66 /  40  10   0  10  30
Birmingham  56  37  62  50  65 /  20  10   0  10  30
Tuscaloosa  57  37  63  49  67 /  10  10   0  10  30
Calera      56  39  63  48  67 /  10  10   0  10  30
Auburn      58  40  62  47  69 /  30  10   0   0  20
Montgomery  61  40  65  47  74 /  10  10   0   0  30
Troy        61  40  65  47  74 /  10  10   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$


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