Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 131704
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1004 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG TOWARDS LOVELAND AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL
IMPROVE SHORTLY AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE TIMBERLINE AROUND 50 MPH THIS MORNING...SO WILL ADJUST TO
SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LAST
EVENING WHICH TAPPED INTO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MOVED UP THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY LAST EVENING...FOG DEVELOPED AND BECAME VERY
DENSE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE FORT COLLINS VICINITY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF DENVER. WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE
WITH ALL FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DISSIPATING BY LATE
MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM MST.

NOT MUCH OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT A FOGGY START TO THE MORNING MAY HOLD BACK THE
WARMING FOR A FEW HOURS. BY MIDDAY...THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BRINGING WARMING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUN THRU MON.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY SUN
AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU MON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE SUN AFTN THRU MON WITH A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT.
THUS SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MTNS WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. COULD EVEN APPROACH WARNING
AMOUNTS IN ZN 31 IF EVERYTHING WERE TO COME TOGETHER RIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER. AS FOR
PCPN CHANCES AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN
EVENING STILL COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON SUN BEHIND FNT WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER NERN CO.  ON MON A SFC LEE TROUGH
WILL DVLP EAST OF THE MTNS WITH A DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING.  THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF A MTN WAVE DVLPS HOWEVER
CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WK WAVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND NR THE WY-NE BORDER. WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO
SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S WITH
NEAR 60 POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE
STABLE.  THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE.  EAST OF THE MTNS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.  ONCE AGAIN GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR
THE WY-NE BORDER.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS.  BY THU A
QUICK MOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN
INTO THU EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE
MTNS HOWEVER OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS OVER NERN CO
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 60S IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC FNT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THU EVENING. BY FRI A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

BETTER MIXING THE REST OF THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT OF THE DENVER AREA...STILL SOME FOG HOWEVER
NEAR KDEN 4-5SM RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18Z. ALSO SOME FOG STILL TRAPPED NEAR LONGMONT/LOVELAND AND THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL BY THIS
AFTN. NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 18Z. WEAK CYCLONE STILL
AROUND WITH LGT N/NE WINDS THROUGH 18Z AT KDEN...THEN THE HRRR
INDICATES MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE 18-21Z
WINDOW... THEN NW/NLY THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTN...NNELY THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE DENVER AREA. &&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER


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