Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 021535
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
935 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT FORECAST OF NOTHING SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...DEPICTED WELL IN THE HRRR...WHICH FORECASTS IT TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY. THAT MODEL ALSO CREATES SOME CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CUMULUS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. ALREADY ADDED THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS TO THE GRIDS SO NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. AIRMASS
WILL WARM 3-7 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT TODAY PUTTING MOST LOCATIONS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE 80S. AIRMASS IS DRY WITH NO CLOUDS
FROM COLORADO TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT...BUT BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS LOW
LYING AREAS WILL BE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER PUSHES WELL SOUTHEAST OF
COLORADO AND THE RIDGE ITSELF FLATTENS SOMEWHAT. THE QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK UPWARD MOTION FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS HAVE DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FOR ALL THE CWA WEDNESDAY. ALL THE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING WITH UPSLOPE THURSDAY WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS SPARSE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN THERE IS SOME INCREASE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S F WEST TO 40S F EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.40
TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MINOR CAPE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN EVEN LESS OVER
THE HIGH COUNTY FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...THEN THERE IS SOME THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. WILL GO WITH NO POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...THEN 10-30%S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-4 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S EXPECTED READINGS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS 90 F PLUS FOR
DIA...WHICH MAY BE THE LAST 90 F FOR THE SEASON. ON THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 10 C COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY FOR THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT IS
MAINLY FLAT UPPER RIDGING FOR THE CWA WITH 40-70 KNOT ZONAL FLOW
AT THE JET LEVEL. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT TAFS ARE IN ORDER. NO CEILING/VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY FAVORING AN
EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO
DRAINAGE LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ET


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