Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 010617 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
117 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING ON TOP OF THE LOCAL CWF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REST OF NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOLIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND EAST TONIGHT
WITH FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A PRETTY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED IN PLACE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS. A LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE
WILL RETURN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME HIGHER
BASED SC TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHICH IS 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG
THE COAST. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION BUT CAPPING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD BACK ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STAYS LOW THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN PUSHING THROUGH
A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER. HOWEVER
ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER TX/NM AND HOLDS THE
FRONT TO THE WEST MUCH LONGER. THE CMC IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

WITH THE JET PATTERN PRESENT ONE WOULD THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
MOMENTUM BEHIND A 125KT JET MAX ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
KEEP THAT CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG...ALTHOUGH ITS FORMATION SEEMS
PRETTY REASONABLE. AFTER TALKING WITH CRP AND EXAMINING WPC PRODUCTS
WENT WITH A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS A WEAKER FRONT ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES A LITTLE MORE BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT WAS LOWER...BUT
NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BUOY
42020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3.6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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