Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 112325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AS
WINDS DIMINISH. MVFR IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A LOWERED DECK OF STRATUS POSSIBLY FORMING
UP. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID-MORNING TOMORROW WITH MODERATE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF COAHUILA STATE IN MEXICO WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BUT ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT KEPT SILENT 10 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS MID AND
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS DEPICTED MOVING INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY
ERODING THIS AFTERNOON.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS KEEPING A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INFILTRATING IN THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 2000 FEET TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY...THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND A BIT LESS ALONG THE COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
THE SAME TREND FROM PREVIOUS MET/MAV MODEL RUN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE RIVER AND LOW 70S OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AS LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM UP.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OVERALL THE LONG TERM TO
AVERAGE OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONE CHANGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME SEABREEZE SHWRS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A
BACKING OF THE WIND TO A MORE LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NW GULF. A MODEST INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WITH
MET POPS ON THE HIGH END AND MAV ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE
RANGE WILL GO WITH A BLEND TRENDING MORE TOWARDS OF THE LOWER END.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR WEST THE SEABREEZE TRAVELS BEFORE SUPPORT
WEAKENS BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
CURRENTLY KEPT THE LOW POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281/69C AND CLOSER TO
HIGHWAY 77/69. SEABREEZE WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES
WITH PLENTY OF SUN IN BETWEEN ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS.

AS THE NEW WEEK COMMENCES MUCH ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. FOR OUR REGION HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BRINGING ON THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ELEMENT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING NORMALS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. MCALLEN`S NORMAL HIGH FOR
JULY IS 99 DEGREES AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
SEE ANY TYPE OF WEATHER FROM THE MUCH ADVERTISED POSSIBLE RECORD
BREAKING TROUGH. OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. A WEAK MID TO UPPER
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO KEEP US GENERALLY DRY AND HOT. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS IT IS UNCLEAR IF SOME OUTFLOW
FROM ANY CONVECTION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WORKS ITS WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. IF ANYTHING DOES AFFECT US IT WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANY BOUNDARY PULLS
UP STATIONARY AND SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL TO THE SOUTH. GFS
HAS BEEN INDICATING AN EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING DEEPER LEE TROUGHING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
DEEPENS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE CONTENT WITH FORECAST
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODEL TRENDS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MORE REFINEMENT TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS LIKELY AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT WITH LIGHT
BRIEF RAIN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A STEADY SEA
STATE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO APPROACH SCEC OR SCA
LEVELS AT THAT TIME.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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