Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231116 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
616 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery and surface observations continue to
show a low-level cloud deck persisting along the Rio Grande with
minor MVFR ceilings affecting mainly BRO and MFE this morning. Dew
points continue to drop with winds having veered to the N/NNE,
which should break down the clouds as the morning progresses. MVFR
conditions are possible for the next couple hours, but mostly
sunny skies will make way for VFR conditions the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Drier air continues to filter
into the area early this morning in the wake of yesterday`s cold
front. Skies are clear in the Upper Valley and Ranchlands with a
thicker low-level cloud deck persisting over portions of Cameron
and Hidalgo counties. With dew points dropping into the 60s to the
south and 50s further north, clouds should clear out by daybreak
with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Model soundings show very
shallow moisture below 850mb with strong subsidence and very dry
air aloft, so don`t expect any rainfall through the short term
with mostly pleasant weather through much of the forecast period.
Despite a substantial drop in humidity, there isn`t much CAA with
this front, as model guidance keeps 1000-500mb thicknesses similar
or slightly lower than prior to the front. Therefore, afternoon
highs will still reach the mid to upper 80s. Northerly flow will
continue on Tuesday with a stronger high pressure system moving
southward into Texas. Winds will become moderate to strong,
especially across the coastal and marine areas, Tuesday afternoon
through early Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the
western United States and 500mb trough across the eastern United
States Tuesday will provide west to northwest flow aloft across
south Texas. 500mb ridge across southwest TX Wednesday will
continue to provide subsidence across the CWA before moving
eastward Thursday as a 500mb trough develops across the central
United States. A cold front is expected to move through south TX
Friday but moisture will be limited along and ahead of the front.
Will likely see some isolated showers...mainly elevated...across
the coastal sections of the CWA Fri night. Surface high pressure
will build into south TX in the wake of the front Friday into
Saturday. Below normal temperatures across the Rio Grande valley
and northern ranchlands Wednesday will return to near normal
Thursday. Cooler air in the wake of the cold front Friday will
provide below normal temperatures through the rest of the weekend.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Winds have lightened this morning
across the coastal areas with seas still ranging from 5 to 7 feet. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Gulf waters through at
least 7 AM CDT. Conditions will improve briefly this afternoon and
evening before winds increase and seas build again on Tuesday.
Another Small Craft Advisory will be possible for winds and seas.

Tuesday night through Friday...moderate to strong northeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters Tues night before backing
to the north and increasing Wed morning as surface high pressure
builds into the western Gulf of Mexico. Small craft advisories
will likely be needed for the offshore waters Tues night and
Wednesday before winds begin to diminish Wed afternoon. Light to
moderate north winds Wed afternoon will continue to diminish Wed
night and veer to the southeast as the surface ridge across the
lower Texas coast moves eastward. Light south winds will prevail
across the western Gulf Thursday and increase Thurs night before a
cold front moves through the coastal waters Friday. Small craft
advisories will be needed in the wake of the front FRi afternoon.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...65
Long Term...61



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