Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261211
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 24 HRS OF WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING (AFTER BEING WELL INTO THE
40S AREAWIDE AND BRIEFLY REACHING 50 AT BTV EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING). THAT SAID...THE PREVAILING WESTERLY 950-850MB FLOW
COMBINED WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS MAINTAINING TRAPPED
STRATUS LAYER FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED TODAY (FROUDE #S TRENDING
< 1)...BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE IN
DOWNSLOPE AREAS...INCLUDING THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE IN MOST SECTIONS...AIR MASS REMAINS MILD
BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 0C TO -3C
RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ALSO LOOKING AT A VERY MILD START
(CLIMO AVERAGE LOWS ARE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS FOR DEC 26TH). TEMPS
TODAY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS,
GENERALLY REACHING 40-45F RANGE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN W-WSW AT 10-15 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FOR INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND NRN
GREENS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER OVER THE SUMMITS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 217 AM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WITH A MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG
THE INTL BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVAILING
STRATUS...AND 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PESSIMISTIC FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SATURATED
CONDITIONS 3-4KFT AGL. MAINTAINED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT INTO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. ALSO STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS WITH CONTINUED
MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT
(15DEG ABOVE NORMAL) FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 40S
ON SATURDAY (10-15DEG ABOVE NORMAL). SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO SWLY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN
AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED A POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF DUSTING-2"
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS MUCH OF FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PBL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AS SHOWERS END.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE NWLY WINDS WITH QUASI-STEADY TEMPERATURES
WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING
AT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR MOST SECTIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL QUIET FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEEKENDS COLD FRONT. ISOLATED LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
IN THE DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
PROVIDING CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT BEST. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING IN MAX TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID
TEENS TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UNIFORM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH
850MB, BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH
MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GIVE A CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH KSLK HANGING
ONTO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ALL SITES EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
BREAKS IN OVC ESPECIALLY MID DAY. KSLK MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AGAIN
TONIGHT, WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW AT 5-10KTS THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. KMSS AND KSLK WILL SEE GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW TO SSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDE WIND SPEEDS TO ABOUT 5
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY
MSS/SLK/MPV.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



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