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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH