Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 031140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE
FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WITH STRATUS ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG OVER VT
UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT
WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE
STRONG MAY SUN THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE
CLOUDS.

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
+2C AND 925 TO ABOUT +7C TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-AM,
GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY PM.
LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING.

MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WILL
BE THINNING OUT AND MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT
NEAR CALM ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY WED
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON


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