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000
FXUS61 KBTV 052045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT...AS A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 341 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 850
MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +6 TO +10C THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS
RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PREVAILED TODAY...TO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. SO PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF JUST RAIN. BY MORNING HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 0C OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO AROUND -5C OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN
VERMONT. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN BEFORE THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES. NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN A COATING OF ICE
ANYWHERE...AND ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING WILL BE
LIGHT AS WELL (A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES) AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AREAS. SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS COLD
AIR ARRIVES VERY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EST THURSDAY...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO FORECAST
AREA DURING FRIDAY AS FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE EARLY MORNING LOWS OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPS FALLING A BIT OVER THE SOUTH.
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SLEET/SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
VERMONT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
DECREASE BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PASSES OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE RETURNS NORTH INTO
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE EXITING BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT MOSTLY
SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWER POPS
AND LESS SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON SATURDAY...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALLEY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
CONTINUED DRY AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EST THURSDAY...OVERALL TRENDS OF ALL EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS VERY GOOD...AND THUS
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION AND DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 20S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST THEN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PUT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES
EVEN SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THOSE EXACT DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COLDER TEMP PROFILES RETURN AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST. WE`LL BE UNDER FAST WEST/SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS HERE AND THERE FOR SNOW...BUT NO REAL BIG
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HORIZON...SIGH. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE
NUMBERS...ALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARDS VFR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION HAS KEPT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP MVFR CIGS AROUND...THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH MAY MAKE IT INTO KSLK FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EASTWARD...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH LOCAL IFR AT KMPV.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP MOVING IN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT LIKELY TO START OUT AS
RAIN...BEFORE MIXING WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET/FZRA TOWARDS THE TAIL
END OF THE EVENT AFTER 08Z AS SOME COLDER AIR MIXES IN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF BTV.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE TO 20-30 KTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. OPEN
WATER AND SOUTH FACING BAYS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO THESE
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...KGM