Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 231119
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of dry weather and above normal temperatures is
expected across the entire North Country today. Moisture will
begin to spread from south to north across the area tonight with
a few showers possible over northern New York and southern
Vermont. Eventually rain will become more widespread over the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night and will be heavy at times. The
rain will end from west to east during the morning hours on
Wednesday. Total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range is expected
over much of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 658 AM EDT Monday...Overall forecast in good shape with
just some tweaks to match current temperatures and dew
points...which again have a wide range to them early this
morning. Otherwise...looking at one more day of dry weather
today with mainly some high level clouds over the area. High
temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to middle
70s...well above normal once again for this time of year.


Deeper moisture will work into the area tonight from south to
north with increasing clouds and increasing precipitation
chances expected...mainly over northern New York and southern
Vermont. Winds will also be increasing overnight and should
become gusty across northern New York with gusts in the 30 to 40
mph range. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 446 AM EDT Monday...Going forecast of widespread rain
developing over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night looks real
good. Strong south to north flow will keep precipitation in a
concentrated band and with precipitable water values well over
an inch...expect rain to be heavy in this band. Band becomes
established over the northern Adirondacks of New York Tuesday
afternoon with the band slowly moving east across Vermont
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Can see many areas
picking up 1 to 2 inches of rain...but rivers are low at this
time and should be able to handle the new rainfall. The Saint
Lawrence Valley will only see about a half inch since the band
of heavier precipitation is expected to set up east of this
area. Strong southerly flow will also be moving across the area
and the 30 to 40 mph wind gusts expected tonight over parts of
northern New York will be shifting east into Vermont Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to lower
70s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 302 AM EDT Monday...Parent upper trough then swings
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with any
lingering showers waning over time as southwesterly flow
becomes re-established aloft over time. Out of respect for some
global ensemble members I maintained some chance pops across
eastern counties, but the overall idea will be for large-scale
drying under variable cloud cover. Low temperatures generally in
the 40s Wednesday night with 50s for highs on Thursday -
something a bit more climatologically reasonable for late
October.

Then mainly dry by Thursday night into Saturday afternoon as
transient high pressure skirts through the region and surface flow
backs to south/southwesterly ahead of additional digging energy
across the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Looking at partly
cloudy skies during this period as temperatures moderate slightly
into the 55 to 65 range for afternoon highs.

Frontal system with accompanying upper trough then edges into the
area by Saturday night into Sunday with a renewed threat of showers.
Leaned more heavily toward this morning`s ECWMF solution showing a
slightly slower frontal arrival as the GFS is often too progressive
with northern stream systems at longer time frames.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR at most terminals through the period
with the exception of KMPV and other southeastern VT terminals
after 21Z when SCT/BKN marine MVFR stratus from 015-025 AGL
will advect northward into the area. Otherwise just scattered
high clouds through 21Z, trending SCT from 035-050 AGL at
KRUT/KBTV/KRUT thereafter. At KSLK/KMSS mainly SCT250, trending
SCT/BKN from 080-150 AGL after 06Z Tue. Winds south to
southeasterly and trending gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range this
afternoon into tonight as background gradient tightens between
departing high pressure and approaching cold front. Some low
level turbulence possible, especially this evening/tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kts. Likely RA...Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kts. Definite RA...Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory is in effect today and will continue right
into Tuesday. Winds will be from the south at 15 to 25 knots
today and tonight...but increase into the 20 to 30 knot range on
Tuesday. Winds of this magnitude will create rather choppy
conditions...especially on the northern portions of the lake...
and waves will build into the 3 to 5 foot range by Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to
service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV



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