Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 082110
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
410 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
A cold front will cross the area tonight bringing much colder air
and scattered snow showers. High temperatures from Friday through
Sunday are forecast only in the 20s. A weak ridge of high
pressure will be over the region on Saturday, with fair and dry
weather expected. There will be chance for additional light snow
and snow showers across the north country from Sunday through
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing
persistent lake effect snow band has moved south into the southern
Adirondacks. Additional scattered snow showers showing up on radar
across most of the Burlington forecast area. Temperatures are
mainly in the 30s in the valleys with 20s over hill towns. There
are breaks in the clouds east of the high terrain due to
downsloping winds. Mostly cloudy conditions elsewhere.
Winds still from the west southwest and will remain there until
next cold front crosses the forecast area overnight when winds
will become northwest. Front should be through all but Rutland and
Windsor Counties by 2 AM. There will likely be some additional
snow showers for all areas associated with the cold front as it
passes through. Colder tonight with lows in the teens and
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...For Friday, expect a cold moist
cyclonic flow early which will lead to upslope snow showers.
Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic snow
showers. Highs only in the teens and 20s. Ridging begins to build
in later in the day which should force snow showers to gradually
diminish. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday, but a
weak upper level impulse may bring some clouds and some additional
light snow showers or flurries during the day. Lows Saturday
morning in the single digits to teens. Highs on Saturday forecast
in the teens and 20s. High pressure is expected to bring partly
cloudy skies and cold for Saturday night with lows in the single
digits to teens.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather is expected
through much of the long term period with temperatures averaging
At the start of the period, a shortwave and associated sfc wave will
be moving from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast states for
Sunday into Monday. Some models also suggest that a secondary area
of low pressure may form off the coast of New England as the storm
exits for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Although there are
still variations in the models and ensembles members regarding exact
temps aloft and QPF amounts, the vast majority suggest temps both
aloft and in the boundary layer will remain below freezing, keeping
precip in the form of snow. Amounts are still certain, but at least
a light to moderate snowfall look to occur across the entire CWA
between Sunday and Monday with a prolonged period of steady light
precip. Daytime temps look to be in the 20s to low 30s and lows will
be in the teens.
Behind this system, the remainder of week will be dominated by
chilly temperatures, with the potential for some additional
snowfall. The models don`t agree on the timing at all, so generally
have slight chc to chc pops for Tuesday through Thursday. At some
point, a frontal system looks to move through with some additional
snow showers and there`s also the potential for another more
organized area of steady snowfall if a wave can develop along this
boundary (as suggested by the latest 12z GFS). Daytime temps will
continue to mainly be in the 20s with lows in the single digits and
.AVIATION /21Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...As an upper level trough moves into the
region, the combination of cyclonic flow, upslope and lake-
effect activity will allow for snow showers over the region for
this afternoon into tonight. The most persistent snow showers
will be near SLK/MPV, which will allow for IFR conditions for
much of the the time by late this afternoon and through tonight.
Some improvement back to MVFR conditions looks to occur at some
point later on Friday morning.
Cannot rule out some brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions at
MSS/BTV/PBG/RUT through this afternoon and into early this evening within
passing snow showers and/or lower stratocu clouds, but flying
conditions generally will be VFR for much of the time with just
ovc cigs at 3500-6000 ft. It looks mainly VFR tonight into
tomorrow, although a few passing light snow showers or flurries
are certainly possible.
Winds will continue to be W-NW at 10-15 kts. A few higher gusts
will be possible from time to time, especially for the higher
terrain terminals. Winds will diminish slightly overnight, but
will increase back to near 15 kts on Friday.
Outlook 18Z Friday through Monday...
Mvfr cigs linger at slk/mpv on Friday afternoon with vfr
developing Friday night into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday
afternoon with another widespread light snow event. This system
will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z
NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight for