Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS ACCORDINGLY. LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW



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