Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT TO ACROSS
LONG ISLAND SOUND ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEASONABLY TO UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED
TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SUNDAY...HEALTHY LOOKING SYSTEM ON WATER VAPOR
AND COMPOSITE RADAR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFTFORMATION IN CLOUDS/MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD NY/VT.

HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING INTO NY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING
ADIRONDACKS/CENTRAL VERMONT PRIOR TO MORNING COMMUTE AND ACROSS
ALL OF NY/VT AROUND OF JUST AFTER MORNING COMMUTE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT...FALLING
EARLY THEN RISING FROM SW TO NE AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ADVANCE... STILL MANY PLACES AT OR BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SUNDAY...PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN ALL
ASPECTS...INCLUDING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND GREATER QPF FIELD
MOVING NORTH INTO MUCH OF VT/NY.

IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS REGION
ON MONDAY WITH DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF STILL POSITIVE BUT TRYING
TO GO NEGATIVE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. H7 LOW MOVING ACROSS VT/NY
ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER ANNOUNCED...AREAS OF STRONG DEFORMATION
SPREADING INTO MUCH OF VT/NY...STRONG WAA ALOFT, COMBINES WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER
THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 5-10" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 4-7" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

ADDITIONAL WARNINGS WERE ISSUED AT 1 PM AS WELL AS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES.

IT WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND SUB-ZERO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...THUS 10 TO
20 BELOW WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY 20 TO 30 BELOW WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT.

NO HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS BUT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS.

RETURN FLOW LATE TUESDAY AND WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS IT BEGINS TO
BACK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH FOR LATE WED/THU WILL
MEAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...THEN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSING NORTH OF US ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
PERIOD...YET STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SNOWFALL. HAVE TIMED SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED AT TIMES. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 12Z ONWARD.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY-06Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

06Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ028>031-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...KGM/SLW
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM/SLW
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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