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000
FXUS61 KBTV 111103
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...THEN A
SIGNFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW WILL
BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE IN THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN VERMONT COULD SEE A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL THE STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH
SOME AREAS FALLING BELOW ZERO WENDESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 701 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BLEND OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES INTO FORECAST...AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH
LATER ADJALL GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT IT DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. NO
CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN THE NEAR TERM A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONE MORE DAY OF MILD WEATHER. SOME SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL...AND AREA OF LOWER RH AIR IN 1000-500MB LAYER
TO SOUTH MAY ALLOW SUN TO PEAK THROUGH IN SOUTHERN PART OF
VERMONT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY. WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP REGION IN NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...AND MAX TEMPS TODAY SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT TUESDAY...

IN THE NEAR TERM A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONE MORE
DAY OF MILD WEATHER. SOME SUBSIDENCE LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL...AND AREA OF
LOWER RH AIR IN 1000-500MB LAYER TO SOUTH MAY ALLOW SUN TO PEAK
THROUGH IN SOUTHERN PART OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY DAY. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
REGION IN NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND MAX TEMPS TODAY
SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST REAMINS ON TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH FOR SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8PM THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A FEW HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE IT STARTS IT WILL COME ON QUICKLY. UPPED POPS
AREAWIDE TO 100 PCNT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF NOTE IS
FURTHERN NORTH EXTENT OF WARM AIR LATE WEDNESDAY IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROCHING LOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION AREA
WAS MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE...BUT REMAINS IN
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES FOR THE MOST PART. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN WILL REDUCE OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER AREA SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLDER TEMPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY WILL INCREASE SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS.

IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...GREATER CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO WARNING.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD MARKED BY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA PHASES BRIEFLY WITH A
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN US...DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE ADIRONDACKS. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AIR BY A FEW TENS OF MILES PER WPC MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION.

PERIOD OF MAX UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 18Z WEDS AND 06Z
THURS...AND COINCIDES WITH HIGH RH IN -12 TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE NOTED IN PREVIOUS AFD CONTINUES
TO BE FORECAST...WITH REGION IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF DEPARTING
300MB JET AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF SECOND JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF THE
TROUGH AT 00Z THURS. SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER NEW ENGLAND AFT 06Z
THURS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND COMBINATION SYNOPTIC LIFT
WITH UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SNOWFALL AND SHIFT FOCUS TO TERRAIN INDUCED
UPSLOPE EVENT. SNOW EVENTUALLY WINDS DOWN LATE THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEGINNING
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. GRADIENT IN MAX
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR IN SOUTHERN VERMONT CREATES HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...WHILE ADVANCING COLD FRONT LIMITS MAXE TEMPS IN
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO THE 20S. ARCTIC FRONT TO BE
FELT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO...AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.
SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE REGION. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH STORM FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT MUCH FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND NOT IMPACTING OUR
FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME BR LEFTOVER FROM DEPARTING
LIGHT SNOW THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY 8-15 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH PSBL IFR IN SNOW SHWRS AFT
06Z.

12Z WED - 18Z THU...LIFR OCNL VLIFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DUE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM PITTSBURGH PA WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 00Z FRI. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 30
KTS.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS FRIDAY AFTN.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...MVFR WITH PSBL IFR VSBY AT TIMES IN SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES