Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
642
FXUS61 KBTV 072036
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER
THE SE CONUS. MEANWHILE...OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE IN FAST
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
DRY TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
BETWEEN SURFACE AND 800MB. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NE...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL TREND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS VFR/MVFR. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SOUTH INCLUDING RUT. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF
SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.