Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 290816
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LOWS WERE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...OVER W MT AND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THE W MT LOW
WASHES OUT WHILE THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW MOVES ENE TODAY SENDING ONLY
WEAK VORTICITY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE PROGS SHOWED ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIMITED QPF CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ALSO WERE OVERDOING THEIR QPF OVER WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS
BACKED OFF POPS TODAY AND CONFINED THEM TO OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WRF AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST. HRRR SHOWED POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION W OF KBIL THIS
MORNING AND THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE WITH LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER KBIL...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO KS/NE TONIGHT AND ENERGY WILL
BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA. MODELS DID TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE N
TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. QPF CONTINUED TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SO WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.
BROUGHT SMALL CHANCES INTO FAR SE MT TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
SAT WAS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER KS/NE AND A
RIDGE SETTLING N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FORMING A REX BLOCK. TRIMMED BACK INHERITED POPS TO LOW CHANCES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HAD HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...CLOSEST TO GOOD MOISTURE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
MOISTURE GETS SUPPRESSED S. HAD POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERED THEM OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 800
MB AND 850 TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +8 DEGREES C. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO ALBERTA WILL
BEGIN TO DRY THE AIRMASS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY. SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE 70S OR BETTER OR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE ASSURING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK
RELATIVELY LITE. BORSUM.
&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING
IS IN LOWER AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS BUT DO NOT EXPECT TERMINAL
SITES TO BE IMPACTED. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT REMAINING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/053 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/074
    1/B 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 051 034/051 034/056 032/065 036/072 039/073 041/073
    2/W 32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 055 035/056 034/061 035/066 038/071 039/075 041/074
    1/B 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 056 038/059 036/063 037/067 041/071 044/074 045/073
    1/B 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 051 035/055 032/059 034/064 038/070 040/073 042/072
    1/E 22/W    10/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 053 035/057 033/061 035/065 038/069 040/070 041/069
    1/E 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 052 035/051 032/056 032/060 035/066 036/070 038/071
    1/B 25/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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