Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 272043
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
243 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Convection developing north and west of Billings with a strong
cell southeast of Roundup. MUCapes were around 1000j/kg with
shear of around 35kts. A disturbance was working over into central
Montana at the moment and this will keep development going through
the evening. Position of the wave and jet placement seems to focus
the attention more over the northern half of the forecast area, at
least early on, then the last couple of nights. A secondary
shortwave works into the west by mid evening and this may help the
farther west get going then. Forcing does not look overly strong
but enough cape and shear for at least strong storms with possibly
an isolated severe storm. Activity looks to go through the night
over the east again as the shortwave doesn`t clear the area until
Thursday morning.

Thursday will be a similar day with more shortwave influx. Cape
looks a little less with similar shear. Would expect scattered
storms again, with the possibility of a severe storm. Precipitable
water values near an inch would indicate the possibility of
locally heavy rain, although there were some indications of drier
mid level air working in from the northwest. Temperatures will be
below seasonal values with low level easterly flow. The shortwave
responsible for convection is progged to swing out of the area
during the evening time, so looks to be an earlier end time than
the last few nights. TWH

Friday, will be a transition day. Temperatures will begin to warm
up. With some lingering energy and moisture, have continued PoPs
over the mountains and across the eastern zones. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Did not make many changes to the extended forecast. A ridge will
build into the northern Rockies on Saturday. This will let
temperatures continue to climb, and keep much of the area dry.
Going into Sunday, a surface low will develop over eastern Montana
with an upper level low over British Columbia. Tempeatures will be
in the mid 90s on Sunday, with relative humidity values dropping
into the teens. Winds at the moment do not look strong enough to
need a fire weather highlight, but with the low humidity and high
heat fire weather concerns will still be high. Monday will have a
slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms, with some
lingering energy. Tuesday the next system comes through which will
bring a bit better chance as another low crosses the the area.
Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

A disturbance will move into Montana and generate showers and
thundestorms this afternoon and evening, mainly west of a line
from KBIL to KSHR. Local MVFR conditions can be expected, along
with occasional mountain obscurations, in the heavier showers.
Gusty winds and small hail are also possible in the stronger
storms. These showers and thundestorms will spread east through
the night and impact locations east of line from KMLS to KSHR
overnight. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/083 059/089 062/096 066/095 062/090 060/091 060/086
    43/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
LVM 053/085 052/090 054/094 058/093 052/090 051/091 051/085
    43/T    31/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 060/085 057/090 059/097 064/097 061/091 059/093 058/088
    33/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 062/083 060/088 062/096 068/097 065/092 062/094 062/088
    34/T    41/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 061/085 058/089 061/095 068/098 065/093 062/094 062/089
    44/T    41/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    12/T    22/T
BHK 058/079 055/083 057/091 063/095 063/089 058/090 059/085
    45/T    52/T    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 057/085 053/089 056/095 060/095 059/092 056/093 056/088
    34/T    42/T    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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