Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  70  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  50  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  50  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  70  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  90  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT



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