Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL GRIP THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
WIND GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY GIVEN
THE FAIRLY INTENSE ISALLOBARIC PUSH WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TO AROUND 60 FROM SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY TO HAYS AND 63-65F
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE AN IDEAL NIGHT
FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO 36-38F UP NORTH AND ADDED IN
PATCHY FROST FOR THE AREAS FORECAST 36F OR COOLER, PARTICULARLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED, ON THE WHOLE, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND GREATER
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, LEADING TO A NICE MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE AFTERNOONS BY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WIPED OUT FROM THE WEEKEND FRONT AND
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE A RETURN TO SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST, WEST-
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS  OF EVEN DRIZZLE LOCALLY. INITIALLY,
IFR TYPE CEILINGS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM, BUT MAY INCREASE WITH
TIME AFTER 12 UTC AS THE COOLER MOIST AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. NLDN CONFIRMED THUNDERSTOMS WERE WELL EAST OF THE
AREA, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN A MORE STABLY STRATIFIED FORM.
CEILINGS COULD DECREASE TO BELOW 1000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  44  65  40 /  40   0   0   0
GCK  65  42  65  39 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  68  43  66  43 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  66  44  67  42 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  64  40  62  38 /  60   0   0   0
P28  68  48  67  42 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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