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000
FXUS63 KDDC 292043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE HAD THE
MODELS IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT.
GFS IS HANDLING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE BEST AND WEIGHTED ITS
FORECAST THE MOST IN REGARDS TO THE RAINFALL. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF MAIN RAINFALL BAND. BEFORE NEW
ECMWF CAME IN...MODELS WERE TENDING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. ALSO REALITY AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTING SLOWER. SO
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
DUE TO A POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH PLACE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND. KEPT
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
RAINFALL ENDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOSTLY DRY THE REMAINDER TO THE
SHORT TERM. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AFTER A COUPLE OF GLANCING BLOWS OF PRECIPITATION THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK UP AFTER THIS BRIEF COOL DOWN AND REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEW MODEL DATA HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL COULD BE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. MODEL DATA NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT ABOUT
THIS. KHYS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE TIME. RAIN
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  71  60  82 /  90  90  30  10
GCK  63  70  57  83 / 100  90  20  10
EHA  61  69  59  81 /  90  70  40  20
LBL  64  73  61  82 / 100  90  40  20
HYS  63  77  62  84 /  60  70  10  10
P28  66  70  61  82 /  80  90  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLD/MTB
LONG TERM...GLD/MTB
AVIATION...GLD/BULLER