089
FXUS63 KDDC 140423
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures are predicted for the next several
  days.

- Thunderstorms are expected Wednesday evening and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Upper level ridging over the plains will gradually flatten out
by Tuesday. This will result in lowering surface pressures
across the high plains, south winds and warmer weather. Expect
highs in the lower 90s Monday and mid 90s Tuesday. A fast moving
shortwave trough will traverse the northern plains Wednesday and
shove a cold front into western Kansas. There are chances for
t-storms Wednesday evening along the front and the storms will
gradually shift southward Thursday as the front slowly edges
southward and stalls out. High level winds are expected to be
weak so that the chances for high-end severe storms is low.
However, it doesn`t take much to get a 60 mph wind gust on the
high plains so that a few severe wind reports can`t be ruled
out. As far as rain amounts go, they will of course be highly
variable. This time of year the ensemble mean precipitation has
to be taken with the knowledge that amounts will be highly
variable. Given the frontal convergence, there are 70-90%
chances for measurable rain per ensemble means. With the fast-
moving and low amplitude nature of the upper disturbance, there
won`t be much support for a strong frontal push. As a result,
very warm and humid conditions are expected Friday and
Saturday. An upper level ridge will persist across the southern
plains and southeastern United States through the weekend.
Southwest Kansas will be on the northern edge of the ridge so
that thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out given the weak
mid to high level westerlies across the Rockies and resultant
surface trough. But in the absence of frontal convergence or
vertical wind shear, any t-storm activity should be isolated and
non-severe to marginally severe. Temperatures may climb to
above average levels next weekend in the absence of any
additional frontal incursions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late Monday afternoon. Light southerly winds through late Monday
morning will gradually increase 10 to 20kt generally after 15-17Z as
a developing lee side trough of low pressure slowly strengthens in
eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson