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000
FXUS63 KDDC 242330 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A surface high/ridge axis will move across western Kansas early
tonight, and then move into Oklahoma after midnight. At this time
the lighter winds between 06z and 12z Friday will be across south
central Kansas so will undercut guidance for lows in this area.
Further west where a southerly flow increases to around 10 mph
will continue to favor the current forecast with temperatures
slightly above the latest MAV and MET guidance.

A surface trough of low pressure will deepen during the day on
Friday near the Kansas/Colorado border. 850mb temperatures
indicate at 7c to near 10c 24hour warm up from 00z Friday to 00z
Saturday, especially in southwest Kansas where afternoon
dewpoints are expected to be only in the mid 20s. Based on the
850mb temperature trends the highs on Friday should easily climb
into the low to mid 80s. Based on the mixing potential on Friday
the southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by
late morning with the stronger wind speeds being near and east of
highway 83. Wind speeds will be weaker further west due to the
expected location of the surface lee trough. Based on the wind
speed late day across southwest Kansas combined with afternoon relative
humidities falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range the fire
danger levels will range from elevated to near critical. At this
time confidence on wind speeds meeting Red Flag Warning Criteria
is not high so after collaboration between surrounding offices am
leaning towards not issuing a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning. Will updated the Hazardous weather outlook to mention the
increased fire danger levels.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Medium range models indicate a weak upper level ridge of high
pressure moving east across the Central Plains early Saturday
resulting in dry conditions across western Kansas through Saturday
afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low pressure
will move across southern California into the Desert Southwest
Saturday bringing the possibility for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas Saturday evening into early Sunday. As
the shortwave approaches, it will become more negatively tilted
while moisture near the surface will continue to pool ahead of a
sharpening dryline generally setting up across southwest Kansas.
As upper level dynamics become more favorable, increasing
instability and steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will
set the stage for thunderstorm development across central Kansas
toward Saturday evening. Depending on the location of the dryline,
a few storms may be possible in eastern portions of southwest
Kansas. Based on GFS/ECMWF model soundings, the potential for
severe weather exists. CAPE values in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/KG
and increasing vertical shear profiles as the evening progresses
supports the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly tornadoes. Any thunderstorm development could be
prolonged into early Sunday morning as a low level jet develops
overnight. Precip chances shift northeast Sunday as the upper
level trough lifts northeastward across the Western High Plains.
Precip chances are expected to dwindle through mid week as
prevailing north to northwest low level flow develops across
western Kansas bringing drier/cooler air into the region.

Temperatures will be above normal Saturday as weak upper level
ridging moves eastward across the Central Plains. A south to
southwesterly flow will continue to enhance warm air advection into
western Kansas raising H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest and central Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper
80s(F) are likely Saturday afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible
closer to the Oklahoma border, especially across extreme southwest
Kansas behind the dryline. Cooler temperatures are expected early
next week as a cold front moves through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue into Friday. An upper level ridge
will move into the Plains on Friday. Light and variable winds
will gradually become light south later this evening and
overnight. The south winds increase to 14-24kt by mid to late
morning on Friday as a lee trough strengthens. High level
cloudiness increases on Friday also.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  42  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  86  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
P28  41  83  58  90 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse