Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 080731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
131 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  25  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid


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