Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Another dry forecast this afternoon with light southwest surface
flow ahead of the eastern Colorado trough. Broad southwest surface
winds this morning will give way across the northern sections
this afternoon as a cold front develops across Nebraska and drops
southeast into central Knasas by this evening. Ahead of this
front, a low pressure system on the west Mexico coast this morning
will lift rapidly northeast through Texas and Oklahoma Tonight,
allowing our extreme southeastern counties to be near the
northwest periphery of clouds and possibly some rain showers as
well overnight into early Sunday morning. Based on the NAM and
certainly the ECMWF, measurable rain chances are quite low for
Barber county however, areas just east and south will see much
greater chances for precipitation. The depth of the near saturated
layer looks too shallow behind the front late tonight, and short
range ensemble forecast surface visibility probabilities are quite
low as well for visibility under a mile at this time. Lows tonight
should range from around 40 ahead of the surface cold front, to
as cold as the upper 20s in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

The extended period appears quite dry going forward again through
at least the end of the 7 day outlook. Additionally the overall
pattern keep the very cold air bottled up over central Canada and
the Great Lakes through the early part of the week, with a
thermal ridge remaining across the rockies through the early part
of the week. The GFS/ECMWF show a major pattern change and strong
chance for a major arctic outbreak by around Wednesday however,
which may even have potential to bring a little light snow behind
the cold front toward the end of the week; a pattern easily
achieving single digit lows by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR will continue through 06z Sun, with stratus expected to lower
cigs to MVFR/IFR by 12z Sun. SKC will continue daylight Saturday,
with cirrus increasing around sunset. South winds averaging 15-25
kts will prevail at GCK/DDC/LBL this afternoon, with less wind
expected at HYS. A weak frontal boundary will sag south through
SW KS 00-12z Sun, switching surface winds to north, with some
gusts in the 20-25 kt range. Consensus of short term models
indicates post frontal stratus spreading into the terminals by
12z Sunday, and included this toward the end of this TAF package.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Another day of elevated fire weather conditions will exist across
most of the area this afternoon, given the dry atmospheric
conditions produced by relatively warm afternoon temperatures. Highs
reaching the 60 degree mark will be likely near the OK line,
allowing relative humidity to fall easily in the low 20s, perhaps
even approaching the red flag criteria as winds gust to around 20
knots for a few hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  29  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  26  42  22 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  60  26  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  26  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  29  41  23 /   0   0  10   0
P28  60  37  50  27 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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