Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230315
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1015 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOLLOWING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EDGING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 50S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY A GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. LIFR CEILING IN STATUS AND AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK TO
AROUND 1/2MILE, MAINLY AFTER 09Z, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS STATUS AND FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH BREAKS OF SUN AND VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  85 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  53  83 /  20   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT



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