Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 262014
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
314 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Chances of rain showers will continue to diminish this afternoon and
overnight as sfc low pressure continues to move off to the east over
Lake Superior. There could be some lingering wrap-around showers
associated with the cyclonic flow behind the low, but this activity
should be very light in nature. The 26.12z guidance indicates that
some cloud cover will linger over the Northland overnight, which
should limit radiational cooling. A mid-level shortwave trough, with
a few embedded waves of positive vorticity advection, will linger
over southern Ontario Canada through the overnight hours, leading to
higher confidence in lingering cloud cover. I bumped up tonight`s
low temperatures slightly to better account for the lack of
radiative cooling. This would also limit the likelihood of frost,
especially over north-central Minnesota. However, if cloud cover
does exit the region faster than expected, cooler temperatures
will be possible, along with better chances of frost. Lows tonight
should range from the upper 30s over north-central Minnesota into
the middle 40s over northwest Wisconsin.

Sfc high pressure will then build across the central Great Plains
during the day Wednesday, which will bring drier conditions and
mostly sunny skies to the Northland. The high pressure ridge is
progged to translate across the region during the daytime hours. The
abundant sunshine should help mix the boundary layer, which should
be able to mix down some strong winds to the surface. Moreover, the
mixing should help develop a diurnal cumulus field across the
Northland, per the 26.12z GFS and NAM model soundings. Highs
Wednesday will return to seasonal averages, with values ranging from
the middle to upper 50s east to the lower 60s west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Concern for the long term is rain Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning.

It will be quiet for the first part of the extended forecast
period. A ridge will continue to build into the region Wednesday
night and will affect the weather through the weekend. Temperatures
will be on the cooler side into the weekend before another
warming trend develops at the beginning of next week. A weak
shortwave will move through the eastern areas of the forecast
region Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening bringing a slight
possibility of a shower or thunderstorm. The ridge builds back in
on Friday and keeps the region rain free through most of the
weekend. Temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s on Friday
with lower to middle 60s during the weekend.

On Sunday, an area of low pressure will move into the Plains
states with a southerly flow developing. Models indicate a warm
front moving north through the area Sunday and Sunday evening.
This will cause showers and possible thunderstorms to form across
the area. The low will move north into Southern Canada Monday
dragging a cold front pulling a cold front through the area Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. This will cause some showers
to develop for that time period. Thunderstorms may be a
possibility but will hold off for now until later model runs.
Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s for Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

The light rain will finally end at all taf sites by late this
afternoon. However...IFR to LIFR cigs will be likely overnight at
all all airports due to the abundant moisture leftover from the
rain. Dense fog is not expected due to the cloud cover overnight.
An area of high pressure will build into the region Wednesday
increasing conditions to MVFR to VFR by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  58  46  63 /  10  10   0  20
INL  40  59  44  60 /  70   0   0  20
BRD  42  61  45  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  44  60  44  65 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  45  61  46  66 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart



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