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000
FXUS63 KDMX 010451
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRUSHING THE STATE ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND CONSOLIDATE OVER SD AND NEBRASKA BY LATE MON
AND TUE...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SHOWERS MAINLY...OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISO THUNDER
ARE CONTINUING TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH THE HELP OF AN H500 WAVE AND
WEAK SFC LOW AND FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING LATE AS INSTABILITY WANES. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS SHOWS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND MLCAPE ABOUT 500-700 J/KG. LITTLE THREAT FOR
ANY HAIL OR WIND WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

A QUITE WEEKEND IS AHEAD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WARMING TO ABOUT NORMAL AS
MOISTURE INCREASES.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST
WEEK. SOME SHIFT IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
TREND SHIFTING NORTHWARD SLOWLY WITH EACH RUN. THE BEST DYNAMICS
ARE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TUE AND WED LOOKING TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE. CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH DECENT
DIVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE
THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MUCH IN UNTIL CLOSER TO FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT AND AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WAS TOO
LOW FOR MENTIONING IN ANY SPECIFIC TAF.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...SKOW