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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290944
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Early morning satellite showing low stratus descending upon the
region in developing cold air advection behind this morning/s cold
front. Latest obs from across the region showing gusts will into the
lower to mid 30 kt range...with KIXD reporting a 43 kt gust this
past hr. Latest MSAS pressure change product showing max pressure
rise couplet working into northwest MO this morning...which will keep
things rather blustery this morning before winds begin to die down later
this afternoon. Otherwise...noticeably cooler today with highs
ranging from the middle 40s west of Route 65 to low 40s further
east.

After the skies clear later this afternoon...high pressure set to
arrive during the overnight period tonight. Its arrival will ensure
dry and continued seasonable temperatures through Friday with highs
likely climbing into the lower 40s across much of the area. High
pressure will begin sliding east into the lower Ohio Valley Friday
night which should allow for the re-establishment of return flow
across the Nation/s midsection. Meanwhile to our west...attention
will begin to focus on a southern stream upper low across Baja
California in developing split flow aloft. With time...energy from
this feature will begin to slowly track to the east which combined
with decent return flow from the Gulf and additional northern stream
energy arriving from our northwest...will set the stage for
developing precipitation across the Lwr Missouri Vly this weekend.

It should be stated right up front...this weekend/s forecast remains
marginal at best as models have had a very difficult time converging
on any one particular solution. That said...this morning/s suite has
come in more optimistic for measurable snowfall Saturday night and
Sunday as colder air settles south across our region behind a strong
cold front set to arrive Saturday evening. Meanwhile...main storm
system will be the southern stream disturbance which will advect
plenty of moisture northward into the cold front as it moves south
across our region Saturday night. This combined with what appears to
be very favorable positioning under the right entrance region of a
strengthening northern stream jetstreak across the western Great
Lakes/upper Midwest...and decent mid-level frontogenesis along/north
of said front in tightening mid-level flow aloft...should provide
plenty of synoptic scale forcing to support potentially long lived
precipitation. In fact...models even suggest a possible coupled jet
on Sunday as a southern stream jet begins to lift northeast along the
eastern periphery of main digging trough across the Plains.

So for now...expect precip to begin working into the area early
Saturday morning as an inverted trough axis extends north into the
the area in developing warm air advection. Thermal profiles suggest
precip through much of the day will be in liquid form...however a mix
with snow will be possible in the morning hrs. Heading into the
overnight period...much colder air behind the southward sagging front
will result in a quick changeover to all snow with precip possibly
increasing in intensity as upper jet strengthens and northern and
southern stream energy reservoirs begin to interact/consolidate over
the southern Plains. After this occurs...main sfc low to slowly
track from eastern TX into the lower Miss Rvr Vly/Deep South through
the day on Sunday. This should result in precip gradually coming to
an end from west to east by Sunday afternoon. In terms of
accumulations...pretty hard to hang your hat on anything right now.
What is for certain is that system should have plenty of moisture to
work with thanks to re-established return flow from the Gulf. What
may be poor snow to liquid ratios early on Sat evening will only
increase into Sunday morning as colder air continues to infiltrate
the Lwr Missouri Vly. If everything occurs as advertised this
morning...advisory level snowfalls could be possible. That said
however...confidence as stated above is marginal at best based on
model inconsistency. If nothing less...its definitely worth keeping
an eye on.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Sunday night the upper level trough that brought the rain and snow
to the area Saturday through Sunday will finally shift east of the
area taking precipitation with it. Behind the upper level trough,
cold surface high pressure will build into the area bringing some on
the coldest temperatures we have experience since the second week of
January with lows in the single digits to mid teens Sunday night.
High pressure will remain in control over the area on Monday with
cold northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs on Monday 10 to 15
degrees below normal for the Groundhog with highs in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Temperatures look to moderate through midweek, returning to near
normal, as northwest flow aloft relaxes. However, models are
indicating that a few fast moving shortwaves will move
through the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Models have not resolved the temporal and spatial issues with these
shortwaves however, it does warrant slight chance POPs during the
period with the northern CWA having the best chance for seeing
precipitation which would be in the form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Welsh