Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 082040

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Issued at 314 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The well-advertised cold front scooting through the region tonight
has been showing a drier and drier trend with each of the various
models and runs. Some are hinting at post-frontal precip firing up
later tonight, which is supported by copious cloud cover currently
observed on satellite imagery across the northern half of NE and into
IA, with the front already knocking on the doorstep of NW MO. That
said though, any precip behind the front will be in the form of light
showers, not expected to be very impactful or ground wetting. Despite
decent atmospheric moisture in the area, the better lifting support
is lagging well behind the front, with a shortwave trough not
anticipated to help out the front until the front has nearly pushed
through the forecast area. Hence the additional precip chances on the
backside as well. Once the front and precip clears out overnight, a
dry forecast is in store once again for the rest of the forecast
period as a combination of UL ridging and NW flow aloft dominates the
regional pattern. While surface features will still traverse through,
the only notable changes will be temperature-related.

Speaking of temperatures, while they soared well above normal for
early October this afternoon, reaching well into the 80s for much of
the forecast area, quite the cooldown will return tomorrow behind the
aforementioned front. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s
with perhaps a few locations in the southern areas seeing the 70
degree mark. Widespread 70s will return under southerly surface flow
on Saturday and an even greater warmup again on Sunday, similar to
today`s highs as they get into the mid 80s again. As alluded to, a
cool, dry front will pass through at the end of the weekend, with an
emphasis on the description "cool" as temps will still reach into the
mid 70s, several degrees above normal as mid-October approaches. Look
for 70s to dominate through at least the middle of next week. Low
temperatures will respond accordingly with temps dipping down into
the 40s on the coolest days and 60s on the warmest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Cold front passing through the region tonight has been trending
toward the drier side so STJ, MCI, and MKC look to dodge much of the
rain chances. IXD stands a better chance of seeing some showers in
the area so have included VCSH in this TAF issuance for later this
evening through tonight. Have left out mention at the other three
sites for this issuance but is quite possible that future updates may
include RA/TS mention as necessary. Wind shift will be progressive
throughout the day, becoming northerly later tonight.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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