318
FXUS63 KEAX 151122
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Several chances for storms Wednesday:
    - Early morning storms possible for NW MO & NE KS.
    - Afternoon storms possible, mainly north of the MO River. This
      round heavily dependent on how morning activity evolves.

* Hot and humid Wednesday with heat index values of 100-105, mainly
  south of Highway 36.
    - Extent of high heat dependent on how storms evolve earlier in
      the day.

* Several additional rounds of storms possible from Wednesday night
  into Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected today as
highs climb into the lower 90s across eastern KS and western MO,
with upper 80s for highs  further east. A weak/subtle disturbance
moving through OK early this morning may bring some showers and
storms to southern MO this afternoon. This will most likely not
affect our forecast area but have added some low PoPs, around 15-
18%, for our extreme southeastern zones to capture this small
potential.

Focus then shifts to Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms
will likely develop Tuesday afternoon across SD and NE along a cold
front as a shortwave tracks across that region. These storms will
then likely develop into an MCS that tracks southeast across central
and eastern NE Tuesday night. How far southeast this MCS is able to
maintain its intensity is uncertain but it looks like it starts to
weaken in southeastern NE or far NW MO. However, these systems often
track further southeast than expected so it`s possible it maintains
its strength into center portions of the forecast area. Regardless,
the main impacts with this possible MCS will be strong winds and
northwestern MO and far northeastern KS have the best chances for
seeing strong to possibly severe wind gusts. The latest SPC Day One
outlook has a marginal risk in our far northwestern zones and that
looks reasonable at this point.

How this system evolves and how far south any outflow boundary makes
it will greatly influence the forecast Wednesday, from how hot
it might get to where additional storms develop. Most of the
guidance has a boundary draped right through the middle of the
forecast, roughly in a region from Highway 36 to I-70 Wednesday
afternoon. Given this location, it looks like the hottest
temperatures will be south of Highway 36. Low and mid-level
temperatures surge ahead of this front and deep mixing into
those temperatures will help to lead to highs climbing into the
middle 90s. With dewpoints stuck in the low to mid 70s, heat
index values climb to around 105 south of Highway 36. Some
localized higher heat index values are likely as well. But all
this will depend on just where that boundary stalls. All that
heat and humidity, with the front in the area, will lead to
another chance for storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
MLCAPE values Wednesday afternoon could be in excess of 3000
J/kg. The main hazard with this activity will be from damaging
downburst winds. Practically the entire forecast area is in a
marginal risk, which again looks reasonable at this time given
relatively marginal shear limiting potential for more organized
convection.

That boundary may linger in the area on Thursday, though this is
highly dependent on how earlier convection evolves. The Wednesday
evening and overnight convection may help push the boundary further
south into southern MO. Additionally, convection may be ongoing and
further reinforce the southward push. All of this leads to a cooler
temperature forecast for Thursday with highs potentially 10-15
degrees cooler. That front may then stall in our southern zones or
across southern MO, leading to continued low chances for showers and
storms Friday. For the weekend, loow-level flow increases from the
south and southwest which helps lift the front northward. This may
lead to some isolated to scattered storms over the weekend but will
more likely lead to warmer and humid conditions. Late in the
forecast, broad upper ridging builds over the middle of the country
and that leads to continued above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most, if not all, of the
forecast. The exeption to this is a small chance for storms late
in the forecast. It looks more likely, at this point, that
storms weaken before moving into the terminals. Given that more
likely scenario, will keep any mention out of this forecast.
Winds will be light through the forecast with south winds of
5-10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB