Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 272231
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THRU WED) A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME LESS
STEEP OVERNIGHT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SLIDE UP THE WEST COAST ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY OF THE DAYS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
SMALL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE THE STORMS SHOULD
BECOME WETTER REDUCING THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE MID 20S DEGREES C. ALONG THE COAST STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING SOCKED IN EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WARMER NIGHTS. RPA

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU SUN)...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE
LONG TERM WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA MOST DAYS. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE...THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES OF ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK
HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA TO PORTRAY THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
100 F WITH 60S TO NEAR 70 F ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT MOST NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STP


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST
TODAY WHERE AN EDDY HAS FORMED RESULTING IN PERSISTING LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH ALONG THE
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS BRINGING A RETURN TO IFR OR LIFR
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH A THERMAL LOW OVER
THE NORCAL INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR STEEP SEAS
OF 8-9 FT AT 8 SECONDS. MODELS LOOKED TO BE A FOOT OR TWO HIGH
COMPARED TO THE FEW BUOY REPORTS IN OUR WATERS...SO REDUCED THEM
SLIGHTLY AND DROPPED THE WARNING FOR SEAS.

A SMALL SCALE EDDY FORMED SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE AND AT BUOY 14. A MARINER IN WATERS A FEW MILES
SW OF SHELTER COVE REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KT. NONE OF THE
MODELS...EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION GRIDDED MODELS...CAPTURED THE
SOUTHERLIES. THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE WIND FIELDS NEAR SHORE AND
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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