Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 011133
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
433 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER PLEASANT...QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR NW CA
AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SHAVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF
THESE NUMBERS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A
PASSING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS THAT THIS FRONT WILL
ENCOUNTER IS VERY DRY AND THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK TO BEGIN
WITH...VERY LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AND ITS BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE TO USHER IN COOLER AIR
THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK...THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS
THE PRIMARY VORT MAX WITHIN A LARGE BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH A BIT
MORE RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY NOW AT HAND...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THIS LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY
TRACK...BRINGING IT VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD NW CA
ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. AS
SUCH...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODEST WARMUP BEGINNING SUNDAY AS
THE LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD AND A MODEST RIDGE REPLACES IT.
ALSO...OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO MVFR BRIEFLY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AT KCEC. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PRESENTLY MOVING OVER THE AIRPORT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
DROP IN VISIBILITY BY SUNRISE AS CLOUDS THIN BACK OUT. PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WELL
UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY WITH STILL MINIMAL LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER KACV OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. FOG APPEARS TO BE LESS LIKELY THERE...BUT SOME
PATCHES MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KUKI. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS HAVE MAXED OUT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. ADVISORIES EXPIRE AROUND
MID-MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND MID-AFTERNOON IN THE
OFFSHORE ZONE. WIND GUSTS NAY OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
THE S OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS THRU THE
DAY...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY...WITH N WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING
AGAIN BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND.
/SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER....OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES HAVE VARIED GREATLY WITH
ALTITUDE AS VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
THIS HAS PLAYED OUT MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED...AS HIGH ELEVATION
AREAS SAW A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST RH RECOVERIES DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. THUS FAR...THE
DRY AIR HAS MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 4000 FEET...WHICH IS A BIT
HIGHER IN ALTITUDE THAN EXPECTED AT THIS POINT BUT STILL PLENTY
LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT MANY AREA FIRES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THIS AIR WILL REACH ITS LOWEST
ALTITUDE OF AROUND 3000 FEET BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY...SO HIGH
ELEVATIONS AND EVEN MID SLOPES IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION
FIRES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS
ARE BEHAVING AS EXPECTED AND HAVE REMAINED LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE RH VALUES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SOME AREAS
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND PERHAPS INTERIOR DEL NORTE COUNTY
COULD SEE A BRIEF VERY LIGHT SHOWER AS THIS FRONT PASSES AS
WELL...BUT WETTING RAIN REMAINS AN UNLIKELY PROPOSITION. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND LIKELY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH...DRY AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IS LIKELY TO BE
A COMMON THEME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR USUAL PATTERN OF LIGHT ONSHORE/OFFSHORE
FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...PERHAPS WITH A
BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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